Groundwater level fluctuations and associated influencing factors in Rangpur District, Bangladesh, using modified Mann-Kendall and GIS-based AHP technique

Monir, Md. Moniruzzaman; Sarker, Subaran Chandra; Sarkar, Showmitra Kumar; Ahmed, Mohd.; Mallick, Javed; Islam, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul

doi:10.1007/s00704-023-04541-x

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…If this process continues in the northern and western parts of Bangladesh, these areas will become drought in recent future. However, groundwater drought already affects northwestern Bangladesh 106 , 135 , 136 . The trend test for monthly rainfall shows that more than 80% station's rainfall declined from November to March and August.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The non-parametric Mann-Kendal (MK) 51 , 102 test was used to find trends in rainfall. The MK test is frequently used to determine trends (if analysis occurs in meteorological data series) 50 , 60 , 103 – 106 . MK test is less sensitive to outline and suitable for detecting rainfall trends and has been applied to explore seasonal and annual rainfall trends 107 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal analysis and predicting rainfall trends in a tropical monsoon-dominated country using MAKESENS and machine learning techniques

Monir,

Rokonuzzaman,

Sarker

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Spatiotemporal rainfall trend analysis as an indicator of climatic change provides critical information for improved water resource planning. However, the spatiotemporal changing behavior of rainfall is much less understood in a tropical monsoon-dominated country like Bangladesh. To this end, this research aims to analyze spatiotemporal variations in rainfall for the period 1980–2020 over Bangladesh at seasonal and monthly scales using MAKESENS, the Pettitt test, and innovative trend analysis. Multilayer Perception (MLP) neural network was used to predict the next 8 years' rainfall changes nationally in Bangladesh. To investigate the spatial pattern of rainfall trends, the inverse distance weighting model was adopted within the ArcGIS environment. Results show that mean annual rainfall is 2432.6 mm, of which 57.6% was recorded from July to August. The Mann–Kendall trend test reveals that 77% of stations are declining, and 23% have a rising trend in the monthly rainfall. More than 80% of stations face a declining trend from November to March and August. There is a declining trend for seasonal rainfall at 82% of stations during the pre-monsoon, 75% during the monsoon, and 100% during the post-monsoon. A significant decline trend was identified in the north-center during the pre-monsoon, the northern part during the monsoon, and the southern and northwestern portions during the post-monsoon season. Predicted rainfall by MLP till 2030 suggests that there will be little rain from November to February, and the maximum fluctuating rainfall will occur in 2025 and 2027–2029. The ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data findings suggested that changing rainfall patterns in Bangladesh may have been driven by rising or reducing convective precipitation rates, low cloud cover, and inadequate vertically integrated moisture divergence. Given the shortage of water resources and the anticipated rise in water demand, the study's findings have some implications for managing water resources in Bangladesh.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal analysis and predicting rainfall trends in a tropical monsoon-dominated country using MAKESENS and machine learning techniques

Monir,

Rokonuzzaman,

Sarker

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Almost every year, the country is hit by a natural disaster of some form, such as drought, resulting in signi cant losses in agricultural productivity (Dastagir, 2015;Thomas et al 2023). The analysis of the dry spell during the monsoon season is crucial in Bangladesh since 56% of the land is used for agriculture during this period, and it also in uences surface water storage and groundwater storage changes (Zhang et al, 2018;Rawat et al 2021;Monir et al 2023b). However, there has been no research on the pattern of dry spells, particularly in Bangladesh, despite some studies in this region (Singh et al 2014;Rajeev et al 2022;Ullah et al 2023).…”

Section: Several Studies Have Been Undertaken On the Impacts Of Chang...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the trend of dry spells and how ocean factors affect its patterns during the summer monsoon in Bangladesh using the Mann-Kendall and Frontier Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Monir,

Sarker,

Rahman

et al. 2024

Preprint

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To assess drought risk, susceptibility to food security, and water resource utilization, it is crucial to comprehend dry spell patterns from a hydrological perspective. Some regional studies have noted an extension of dry spells on a global and regional scale, but it is still unclear how often dry spells occur during the summer monsoon season, which is dominated by rainfall. This study uses the Mann-Kendall trend test to examine the trend of dry spells during Bangladesh's summer monsoon from 1985 to 2022 to close this gap. Using the Frontier Atmospheric General Circulation model and remote sensing methods to examine the effects of ocean elements such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, and the zonal wind. Daily rainfall data for 34 weather stations were obtained from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, while surface water occurrence and change intensity data were retrieved from the JRC Global Surface Water Mapping Layers, v1.3 (FAO, UN). The NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) and the Tokyo Climate Center/WMO Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia) provided the IOD, SST, ENSO, and zonal wind data. A notable dry spell anomaly over Bangladesh was also noted in this research, with the short, medium-length, and long dry spells increasing in 82.35%, 73.53%, and 50% of weather stations. When El Niño was present, there was less of a dry spell and more during La Niña. The climatic variability of IOD events and SST anomalies in the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean were also noted by this study to be connected to these anomalous events. The correlation coefficient between summer monsoon rainfall and DMI is 0.34. Throughout the study period, there were changes in the upper atmosphere's and lower troposphere's wind circulation. The study allows the prioritization of regions for drought, effective water resource management, and food scarcity preparedness.

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Advancing groundwater vulnerability assessment in Bangladesh: a comprehensive machine learning approach

Raisa,

Sarkar,

Sadiq

2024

Groundwater for Sustainable Development

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Groundwater level fluctuations and associated influencing factors in Rangpur District, Bangladesh, using modified Mann-Kendall and GIS-based AHP technique

Cited by 10 publications

References 69 publications

Spatiotemporal analysis and predicting rainfall trends in a tropical monsoon-dominated country using MAKESENS and machine learning techniques

Spatiotemporal analysis and predicting rainfall trends in a tropical monsoon-dominated country using MAKESENS and machine learning techniques

Analysis of the trend of dry spells and how ocean factors affect its patterns during the summer monsoon in Bangladesh using the Mann-Kendall and Frontier Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Advancing groundwater vulnerability assessment in Bangladesh: a comprehensive machine learning approach

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