Ground motion simulations of great earthquakes on the Alpine Fault: effect of hypocentre location and comparison with empirical modelling

Bradley, Brendon; Bae, Sung Eun; Polak, Viktor; Lee, Robin L.; Thomson, Ethan; Tarbali, Karim

doi:10.1080/00288306.2017.1297313

Cited by 23 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…While not shown here, D s595 also exhibits the same trend as D s575 . The lower bias with larger magnitude is consistent with results from validation against past large magnitude events which showed relatively small bias (Bradley et al, 2017a;Graves and Pitarka, 2010;Razafindrakoto et al, 2018).…”

Section: Between-event Residual Db Esupporting

confidence: 84%

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Hybrid broadband ground motion simulation validation of small magnitude earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand

et al. 2020

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Ground motion simulation validation is an important and necessary task toward establishing the efficacy of physics-based ground motion simulations for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake engineering applications. This article presents a comprehensive validation of the commonly used Graves and Pitarka hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology with a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) Canterbury Velocity Model. This is done through simulation of 148 small magnitude earthquake events in the Canterbury, New Zealand, region in order to supplement prior validation efforts directed at several larger magnitude events. Recent empirical ground motion models are also considered to benchmark the simulation predictive capability, which is examined by partitioning the prediction residuals into the various components of ground motion variability. Biases identified in source, path, and site components suggest that improvements to the predictive capabilities of the simulation methodology can be made by using a longer high-frequency path duration model, reducing empirical V s30-based low-frequency site amplification, and utilizing site-specific velocity models in the high-frequency simulations.

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Section: Between-event Residual Db Esupporting

confidence: 84%

“…Bradley et al, 2017c; Razafindrakoto et al, 2018), as well as future prospective events (e.g. Bradley et al, 2017a), to strongly influence earthquake ground motions through phenomena such as basin wave-guide effects, basin-edge effects, and nonlinear soil response at frequencies of engineering interest.…”

Section: Ground Motion Modeling Methodologies and Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybrid broadband ground motion simulation validation of small magnitude earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand

et al. 2020

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“…On this basis, prior ground motion studies (e.g. [20,21]) have adopted a lower seismogenic depth of 15km, in which the mean slip amplitudes linearly taper toward zero over the lower 3km depth. The total rupture area of the modelled faults is therefore 3323km 2 yielding a mean characteristic magnitude of 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Canterbury Waiau Cheviot Kaikoura Nelson / Tasman Marlborough Figure 2: Crustal modelling in the region of interest using the NZVM [10], illustrating the location of the Hope Fault rupture scenario, explicitly modelled basins, and illustrative S-wave velocity cross sections through basins.…”

Section: Hope Fault Rupture Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

Ground motion simulations of Hope fault earthquakes

Thomson

Lee

Bradley

2019

BNZSEE

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This paper examines ground motions for a major potential M w 7.51 rupture of the Hope Fault using a physicsbased simulation methodology and a 3D crustal velocity model of New Zealand. The simulation methodology was validated for use in the region through comparison with observations for a suite of historic small magnitude earthquakes located proximal to the Hope Fault. Simulations are compared with conventionally utilised empirical ground motion models, with simulated peak ground velocities being notably higher in regions with modelled sedimentary basins. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken where the source characteristics of magnitude, stress parameter, hypocentre location and kinematic slip distribution were varied and an analysis of their effect on ground motion intensities is presented. It was found that the magnitude and stress parameter strongly influenced long and short period ground motion amplitudes, respectively. Ground motion intensities for the Hope Fault scenario are compared with the 2016 Kaikōura M w 7.8 earthquake, it was found that the Kaikōura earthquake produced stronger motions along the eastern South Island, while the Hope Fault scenario resulted in stronger motions immediately West of the near-fault region and similar levels of ground motion in Canterbury. The simulated ground motions for this scenario complement prior empirically-based estimates and are informative for mitigation and emergency planning purposes 170˚171˚172˚173˚174˚175˚176− 44− 43− 42− 41−

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“…Using Leonard (2014), a mean M w 7.9 event was considered. Hypocentres at the southern, central, and northern ends of the fault are considered (Bradley et al 2017). 2.…”

Section: Example Application: Ground Motion Simulation Of Alpine Fault Earthquakes On the Canterbury Plainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidance on the Utilization of Earthquake-Induced Ground Motion Simulations in Engineering Practice

Bradley

Pettinga²,

Baker

et al. 2017

Earthquake Spectra

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This paper summarizes developed guidance on the utilization of earthquake-induced ground motion simulations for engineering practice. Attention is given to the necessary verification, validation and utilization documentation in order for confidence in the predictive capability of simulated motions to be established. The construct of a ground motion simulation validation matrix is developed for assessing the appropriateness of a particular suite of simulated ground motions from the perspective of region-to-site-specific application and for different specific engineering systems. Appropriate validation metrics and “pass” criteria, the consideration of modeling uncertainties, and limitations associated with a relative lack of validation data are also addressed. An example is utilized in order to demonstrate the application of the guidance. This document is intended to be bidirectional in the sense that it provides guidance for earthquake engineers on the appropriateness of a suite of ground motion simulations for utilization in a site-specific context, as well as ground motion simulators to understand the context in which their results will be utilized.

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Ground motion simulations of great earthquakes on the Alpine Fault: effect of hypocentre location and comparison with empirical modelling

Cited by 23 publications

References 30 publications

Hybrid broadband ground motion simulation validation of small magnitude earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand

Hybrid broadband ground motion simulation validation of small magnitude earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand

Ground motion simulations of Hope fault earthquakes

Guidance on the Utilization of Earthquake-Induced Ground Motion Simulations in Engineering Practice

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