Gross National Income Growth and Foreign Direct Investment: Causation in the presence of Crisis in India

Abstract

Gross National Income (GNI) of an economy explicates the standard of living of the population residing in a country. The growth in GNI indicates a successful development for a nation. In this paper, an interrelation between GNI growth and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been discussed in the presence of Indian economic crisis by implementing the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Modelling approach. The data are ranging from the time of 1991 to 2017. The relationship is judged at the background of economic liberalization of India. The result shows that there exists a long-run impact of FDI on GNI growth. The existence of cointegration further necessitates the existence of short-run causality. In the short run, GNI growth Granger causes FDI. This proves that the model is significant for discussion both for the long and short run. The error correction term signifies that there exists a ninety-seven percent chance of the model to move back to its long-run equilibrium from short-run shocks. The reliability and stability of the whole model are judged by implementing CUCUM and CUSUMQ test. Finally, in conclusion, the model chosen for the study has indicated a few policy implications required for enhancing the GNI growth of India to fight back the situation of crisis.