Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through next week

Mankoff, Kenneth D.; Fettweis, Xavier; Langen, Peter L.; Stendel, Martin; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Karlsson, Nanna B.; Noël, Brice; Broeke, Michiel van den; Solgaard, Anne; Colgan, William; Box, Jason E.; Simonsen, Sebastian B.; King, Michalea D.; Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Andersen, S. B.; Fausto, Robert S.

doi:10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021

Cited by 42 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…The high-melt year of 2012 was driven by a persistent negative extreme in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index = −1.6), delivering excess atmospheric heat to Greenland 21,22 , which caused enhanced and sustained surface ablation and meltwater run-off, for example 3,23 . Taking this high-melt year as an analogue for a .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

et al. 2022

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Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

et al. 2022

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“…Velicogna et al (2020) compares and provides estimates from the IOM with trends adjusted using GRACE data (nevertheless independent from GRACE-FO data). Mankoff et al (2021) provides IOM data for Greenland only. provides estimates based on altimetric data (using ERS-1, ERS-2, Envisat, CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 missions).…”

Section: Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheet Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…estimate fromMankoff et al (2021) and (4) altimetry estimate from. For Antarctica, we use: (1) IOM estimate fromVelicogna et al (…”

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Revisiting the global mean ocean mass budget over 2005–2020

Barnoud

Pfeffer²,

Cazenave³

et al. 2022

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Abstract. We investigate the continuity and stability of GRACE and GRACE Follow-On satellite gravimetric missions by assessing the ocean mass budget at global scale over 2005–2020, focusing on the last years of the record (2015–2020) when GRACE and GRACE Follow-On faced instrumental problems. For that purpose, we compare the global mean ocean mass estimates from GRACE and GRACE Follow-On to the sum of its contributions from Greenland, Antarctica, land glaciers and terrestrial water storage estimated with independent observations. A significant residual trend of -1.60 ± 0.36 mm/yr over 2015–2018 is observed. We also compare the gravimetry-based global mean ocean mass with the altimetry-based global mean sea level corrected for the thermosteric contribution. We estimate and correct for the drift of the wet tropospheric correction of the Jason-3 altimetry mission computed from the on-board radiometer. It accounts for about 40 % of the budget residual trend beyond 2015. After correction, the remaining residual trend amounts to -0.90 ± 0.78 mm/yr over 2015–2018 and -0.96 ± 0.48 mm/yr over 2015–2020. GRACE and GRACE Follow-On data might be responsible for part of the observed non-closure of the ocean mass budgets since 2015. However, we show that significant interannual variability is not well accounted for by the data used for the other components of the budget, including the thermosteric sea level and the terrestrial water storage. Besides, missing contributions from the evolution of the deep ocean or the atmospheric water vapour may also contribute.

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“…The GrIS is presently losing mass (between tens of gigatons per year and ∼ 500 Gt yr −1 ) with a long-term trend of increasing mass loss; most pronounced on the western side of the ice sheet (Mankoff et al, 2021). Nuup Kangerlua (Godthåbsfjord), situated in southwest Greenland (Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of freshwater runoff from the southwest Greenland Ice Sheet on fjord productivity since the late 19th century

et al. 2022

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Abstract. Climate warming and the resulting acceleration of freshwater discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet are impacting Arctic marine coastal ecosystems, with implications for their biological productivity. To accurately project the future of coastal ecosystems and place recent trends into perspective, palaeo-records are essential. Here, we show runoff estimates from the late 19th century to the present day for a large sub-Arctic fjord system (Nuup Kangerlua, southwest Greenland) influenced by both marine- and land-terminating glaciers. We followed a multiproxy approach to reconstruct spatial and temporal trends in primary production from four sediment core records, including diatom fluxes and assemblage composition changes and biogeochemical and sedimentological proxies (total organic carbon, nitrogen, C/N ratio, biogenic silica, δ13C, δ15N, and grain-size distribution). We show that an abrupt increase in freshwater runoff in the mid-1990s was reflected by a 3-fold increase in biogenic silica fluxes in the glacier-proximal area of the fjord. In addition to increased productivity, freshwater runoff modulates the diatom assemblages and drives the dynamics and magnitude of the diatom spring bloom. Our records indicate that marine productivity is higher today than it has been at any point since the late 19th century and suggest that increased mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet may continue promoting high productivity levels at sites proximal to marine-terminating glaciers. We highlight the importance of palaeo-records in offering a unique temporal perspective on ice–ocean–ecosystem responses to climate forcing beyond existing remote sensing or monitoring time series.

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Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through next week

Cited by 42 publications

References 107 publications

Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Revisiting the global mean ocean mass budget over 2005–2020

Impact of freshwater runoff from the southwest Greenland Ice Sheet on fjord productivity since the late 19th century

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