Green tea could mask testosterone doping

Aldous, Peter

doi:10.1016/s0262-4079(12)60733-7

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…It is well known that the chance of this entire process completing within a time duration goes as the length of that duration raised to the power of the number of hard (i.e., take-very-long) steps (or their multistep equivalents) in that evolutionary process. Using data on Earth history durations, the literature estimates an Earth-duration-based power to lie roughly near the range of 3-9 (Carter 1983;Caldeira & Kasting 1992;Hanson 1998b;Carter 2008;Watson 2008;McCabe & Lucas 2010;Aldous 2012;Waltham 2017;Sandora 2019;Lingam & Loeb 2019a;Snyder-Beattie et al 2021).…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 1983, Brandon Carter introduced a simple statistical model of how civilizations like ours might arise from simple dead matter, via intermediate steps of simple life, complex life, etc., a model that he and many others have since pursued (Carter 1983;Caldeira & Kasting 1992;Hanson 1998b;Carter 2008;Watson 2008;McCabe & Lucas 2010;Aldous 2012;Simpson 2017;Waltham 2017;Sandora 2019;Lingam & Loeb 2019a;Snyder-Beattie et al 2021).…”

Section: The Hard Steps Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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If Loud Aliens Explain Human Earliness, Quiet Aliens Are Also Rare

Hanson

Martin

McCarter

et al. 2021

ApJ

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If life on Earth had to achieve n “hard steps“ to reach humanity's level, then the chance of this event rose as time to the nth power. Integrating this over habitable star formation and planet lifetime distributions predicts >99% of advanced life appears after today, unless n < 3 and max planet duration <50 Gyr. That is, we seem early. We offer this explanation: a deadline is set by loud aliens who are born according to a hard steps power law, expand at a common rate, change their volume appearances, and prevent advanced life like us from appearing in their volumes. Quiet aliens, in contrast, are much harder to see. We fit this three-parameter model of loud aliens to data: (1) birth power from the number of hard steps seen in Earth’s history, (2) birth constant by assuming a inform distribution over our rank among loud alien birth dates, and (3) expansion speed from our not seeing alien volumes in our sky. We estimate that loud alien civilizations now control 40%–50% of universe volume, each will later control ∼ 105–3 × 107 galaxies, and we could meet them in ∼200 Myr–2 Gyr. If loud aliens arise from quiet ones, a depressingly low transition chance (<∼10−4 ) is required to expect that even one other quiet alien civilization has ever been active in our galaxy. Which seems to be bad news for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. But perhaps alien volume appearances are subtle, and their expansion speed lower, in which case we predict many long circular arcs to find in our sky.

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