Green Bonds, Landscape Bonds, and Rainforest Bonds

McFarland, Brian Joseph

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-63236-0_16

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Technical reports for REDD VCS applications categorically exclude forest soil carbon and ecosystem respiration (e.g., AC-6) from carbon accounting (UNFCCC, 2017) (Table 1). The implementation of REDD in Ghana, Africa, for example, is subject to impacts of potential invalidation for projects (Asante et al, 2017; Kagombe et al, 2018; McFarland, 2018) including World Bank sponsored bond programs similar to that operating in Kenya, such as the Kasigau Corridor project (McFarland, 2018), also based on VCS protocols. Results for REDD+ programs appear to be uncertain, in part, due to carbon offset monitoring and economics (Foss, 2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

California air resources board forest carbon protocol invalidates offsets

Marino

Mincheva

Doucett

2019

PeerJ

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The commercial asset value of sequestered forest carbon is based on protocols employed globally; however, their scientific basis has not been validated. We review and analyze commercial forest carbon protocols, claimed to have reduced net greenhouse gas emissions, issued by the California Air Resources Board and validated by the Climate Action Reserve (CARB-CAR). CARB-CAR forest carbon offsets, based on forest mensuration and model simulation, are compared to a global database of directly measured forest carbon sequestration, or net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of forest CO2. NEE is a meteorologically based method integrating CO2 fluxes between the atmosphere, forest and soils and is independent of the CARB-CAR methodology. Annual carbon accounting results for CAR681 are compared with NEE for the Ameriflux site, Howland Forest Maine, USA, (Ho-1), the only site where both methods were applied contemporaneously, invalidating CARB-CAR protocol offsets. We then test the null hypothesis that CARB-CAR project population data fall within global NEE population values for natural and managed forests measured in the field; net annual gC m−2yr−1 are compared for both protocols. Irrespective of geography, biome and project type, the CARB-CAR population mean is significantly different from the NEE population mean at the 95% confidence interval, rejecting the null hypothesis. The CARB-CAR population exhibits standard deviation ∼5× that of known interannual NEE ranges, is overcrediting biased, incapable of detecting forest transition to net positive CO2 emissions, and exceeds the 5% CARB compliance limit for invalidation. Exclusion of CO2 efflux via soil and ecosystem respiration precludes a valid net carbon accounting result for CARB-CAR and related protocols, consistent with our findings. Protocol invalidation risk extends to vendors and policy platforms such as the United Nations Program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and the Paris Agreement. We suggest that CARB-CAR and related protocols include NEE methodology for commercial forest carbon offsets to standardize methods, ensure in situ molecular specificity, verify claims of carbon emission reduction and harmonize carbon protocols for voluntary and compliance markets worldwide.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

California air resources board forest carbon protocol invalidates offsets

Marino

Mincheva

Doucett

2019

PeerJ

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“…Results for REDD and REDD+ net forest carbon sequestration may not be verifiable or capable of identifying net annual ecosystem carbon change in response to reduced deforestation, climate and anthropogenic forcing, and may not be well suited for carbon pricing and trading of carbon financial instruments, based on CARB-CAR shared protocols. The implementation of REDD+ in Ghana, Africa, for example, is subject to impacts of invalidation for REDD+ projects now in operation and in the planning stages [121][122][123] including World Bank sponsored bond programs similar to that operating in Kenya 123 also based on VCS protocols. Current macroeconomic trends for voluntary carbon trading markets are reflected in REDD/REDD+ programs.…”

Section: Co 2 Forestmentioning

confidence: 99%

California air resources board forest carbon protocol invalidates offsets

Marino

Mincheva

Doucett

2019

Preprint

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The commercial asset value of sequestered forest carbon is based on protocols employed globally, however, their scientific basis has not been validated. We review and analyze commercial forest carbon protocols and offsets, claimed to have reduced net greenhouse gas emissions, issued by the California Air Resources Board and validated by the Climate Action Reserve (CARB-CAR). CARB-CAR protocol annual offsets, resulting from forest mensuration and growth simulation models, are compared with a population of forest field sites for which annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon was measured directly as flux by CO2 eddy covariance, a meteorologically based method integrating forest carbon pools. We characterize differences between the protocols by testing the null hypothesis that the CARB-CAR commercial annual offset data fall within the boundaries of directly measured forest carbon NEE; gC m-2yr-1 are compared for both datasets. Irrespective of geographic location and project type, the CARB-CAR population annual mean value is significantly different from the NEE population mean at the 95% confidence interval, rejecting the null hypothesis. The CARB-CAR population exhibits standard deviation ~5x that of the NEE natural ranges; the variance exceeds the 5% compliance limit for invalidation of CARB-CAR offsets. Exclusion of the soil carbon pool typical for CARB-CAR net carbon budgets pose insuperable carbon accounting uncertainty for offsets that extend to vendor platforms and policies including the United Nations Program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and the Paris Agreement. NEE methodology for commercial forest carbon offsets ensures in situ molecular specificity, verification of claims for net carbon balance, performance-based pricing and harmonization of carbon protocols for voluntary and compliance markets worldwide, in contrast to continuing uncertainty posed by traditional estimation-based forest carbon protocols.

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