Greater understanding is need of whether warmer and shorter winters associated with climate change could reduce winter mortality

Ebi, Kristie L.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/111002

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Despite the extensive literature on the effects of cold and hot temperatures on health, debate remains regarding whether temperature is the main cause of the seasonality of mortality. 11,12,23 Addressing this issue is essential for understanding the epidemiology and ecology of seasonal variation in mortality. Using multi-decade data from 36 cities in the USA and 3 cities in France covering a wide range of winter temperatures from À5 C to >20 C, Kinney et al 12 observed no correlations between seasonal temperature differences (the difference in mean temperature between winter and summer) and winter excess mortality, and concluded that temperature was not a key driver of winter excess mortality.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although consensus exists among researchers that the ambient temperature is a key driver, the extent to which temperature is actually the proximal cause of seasonal variation in mortality is a matter of long-standing debate. 11,12 Few studies have attempted to address this topic. 6 More importantly, previous investigations focused on a small number of locations within a limited geographical scope, which makes it difficult to draw comprehensive conclusions across different climate zones.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study

Madaniyazi

Armstrong

Chung

et al. 2021

International Journal of Epidemiology

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Background Although seasonal variations in mortality have been recognized for millennia, the role of temperature remains unclear. We aimed to assess seasonal variation in mortality and to examine the contribution of temperature. Methods We compiled daily data on all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, temperature and indicators on location-specific characteristics from 719 locations in tropical, dry, temperate and continental climate zones. We fitted time-series regression models to estimate the amplitude of seasonal variation in mortality on a daily basis, defined as the peak-to-trough ratio (PTR) of maximum mortality estimates to minimum mortality estimates at day of year. Meta-analysis was used to summarize location-specific estimates for each climate zone. We estimated the PTR with and without temperature adjustment, with the differences representing the seasonal effect attributable to temperature. We also evaluated the effect of location-specific characteristics on the PTR across locations by using meta-regression models. Results Seasonality estimates and responses to temperature adjustment varied across locations. The unadjusted PTR for all-cause mortality was 1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00–1.11] in the tropical zone and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.20–1.25) in the temperate zone; adjusting for temperature reduced the estimates to 1.02 (95% CI: 0.95–1.09) and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07–1.12), respectively. Furthermore, the unadjusted PTR was positively associated with average mean temperature. Conclusions This study suggests that seasonality of mortality is importantly driven by temperature, most evidently in temperate/continental climate zones, and that warmer locations show stronger seasonal variations in mortality, which is related to a stronger effect of temperature.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study

Madaniyazi

Armstrong

Chung

et al. 2021

International Journal of Epidemiology

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“…In Western Europe specifically, 140,271 deaths (125,698–153,056) were cold-related while 32,766 deaths (25,376–42,719) were due to non-optimum high temperatures [ 11 ]. The association between cold and mortality may also change with global warming and this is not well understood [ 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]. Most studies investigating the temperature–mortality relationship mainly focused on the effects of heat on all-cause mortality as in Belgium [ 16 , 17 , 18 ] where cold-related mortality nor cause-specific temperature–mortality relationships have been properly investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Short-Term Exposure to Extreme Temperatures on Mortality: A Multi-City Study in Belgium

Demoury

Aerts

Vandeninden

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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In light of climate change, health risks are expected to be exacerbated by more frequent high temperatures and reduced by less frequent cold extremes. To assess the impact of different climate change scenarios, it is necessary to describe the current effects of temperature on health. A time-stratified case-crossover design fitted with conditional quasi-Poisson regressions and distributed lag non-linear models was applied to estimate specific temperature-mortality associations in nine urban agglomerations in Belgium, and a random-effect meta-analysis was conducted to pool the estimates. Based on 307,859 all-cause natural deaths, the mortality risk associated to low temperature was 1.32 (95% CI: 1.21–1.44) and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08–1.36) for high temperature relative to the minimum mortality temperature (23.1 °C). Both cold and heat were associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. We observed differences in risk by age category, and women were more vulnerable to heat than men. People living in the most built-up municipalities were at higher risk for heat. Air pollutants did not have a confounding effect. Evidence from this study helps to identify specific populations at risk and is important for current and future public health interventions and prevention strategies.

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“…Evidence is still lacking in several areas of weather-related health. As an example, while extreme heat-related mortality and its projected increase seem to be widely accepted [ 14 ], the evolution of winter-related mortality is less clear [ 5 , 15 ]. Another example is the question of the impact of humidity and its role as a confounder in weather-related health studies, which is still open [ 16 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data-Enhancement Strategies in Weather-Related Health Studies

Masselot

Chebana

Ouarda

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Although the relationship between weather and health is widely studied, there are still gaps in this knowledge. The present paper proposes data transformation as a way to address these gaps and discusses four different strategies designed to study particular aspects of a weather–health relationship, including (i) temporally aggregating the series, (ii) decomposing the different time scales of the data by empirical model decomposition, (iii) disaggregating the exposure series by considering the whole daily temperature curve as a single function, and (iv) considering the whole year of data as a single, continuous function. These four strategies allow studying non-conventional aspects of the mortality-temperature relationship by retrieving non-dominant time scale from data and allow to study the impact of the time of occurrence of particular event. A real-world case study of temperature-related cardiovascular mortality in the city of Montreal, Canada illustrates that these strategies can shed new lights on the relationship and outlines their strengths and weaknesses. A cross-validation comparison shows that the flexibility of functional regression used in strategies (iii) and (iv) allows a good fit of temperature-related mortality. These strategies can help understanding more accurately climate-related health.

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Greater understanding is need of whether warmer and shorter winters associated with climate change could reduce winter mortality

Abstract: PERSPECTIVE • OPEN ACCESSGreater understanding is needed of whether warmer and shorter winters associated with climate change could reduce winter mortality

Cited by 8 publications

References 9 publications

Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study

Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study

Impact of Short-Term Exposure to Extreme Temperatures on Mortality: A Multi-City Study in Belgium

Data-Enhancement Strategies in Weather-Related Health Studies

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