‘Great Power Competition’ and the Arctic: Origin and Evolution in Media, Governmental and Research Institutes Discourses

Abstract

This article seeks to further understanding of the emergence and use of the great power competition (GPC) narrative in the Arctic. Using data gathered between 2010 and 2021 by Factiva, the first part of the analysis identifies the emergence and evolving uses of the GPC term, finding that media outlets played a pivotal role in relaying and keeping this narrative alive in public discourse even after its use subsided in governmental discourse. The analysis then moves to track the GPC discourse with reference to the Arctic specifically; it finds that while it emerged later than the general narrative and originated in the media, usage in this context did not peak concurrently with its use in discussion of global geopolitics or with potentially relevant current events. The second part of the analysis examines how media outlets, government documents, and research institutes understand GPC in the Arctic. We found that the great power competition narrative helped to resurrect discourses of Arctic fear and risk after their waning in the first half of the 2010s. The nature of GPC in the Arctic took familiar contours, being for the most part tied to fears, most conspicuously raised in the early 2000s, regarding resource exploitation, shipping lanes, and militarization. Data is largely from the United States, but contains English sources from American allies, as well as Russia and China.