IntroductIon Legislation to introduce plain packaging of tobacco products, advocated as an important tobacco control policy in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, has been vigorously attacked by the tobacco industry on the grounds that it results in no measurable impact on smoking rates. This claim is based on two industry-funded working papers that examined trends in smoking prevalence in Australia.objectIve To assess the effect of plain packaging on smoking prevalence in Australia, taking into account key tobacco control measures introduced over the period [2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013], which could potentially act as confounders, with the aim of investigating the findings of the industry-funded papers.
MethodsMonthly smoking prevalence and sample sizes from repeat cross-sectional surveys were reconstructed from the working paper by reverse engineering of the industry presented data and analysed as a time series using logistic regression. Indicator variables reflecting comprehensive smokefree policy, graphic health warnings, 25% taxation increase, and introduction of plain packaging were constructed from official information.results Smoking prevalence in Australia declined from 25% to 18% over the 13 year period examined -an overall 28% relative reduction or an average annual reduction of 2.8% (95% confidence interval 2.6% -2.9%). A significantly improved fit was obtained by the full model which included terms for tax increase (4.8%, 2.7% -6.8% reduction), comprehensive smoke-free policy (4.5%, 1.7% -7.2% reduction) and plain packaging (3.7%, 1.1% -6.2% reduction) in addition to an adjusted average annual reduction of 1.7% (1.3% -2.2%).conclusIons A significant decline in smoking prevalence in Australia followed the introduction of plain packaging, after adjusting for the impact of other tobacco control measures. This conclusion is in marked contrast to that of the industry-funded analysis.
IntroductIonGuidelines on Article 13 of the WHO Framework-convention for Tobacco Control explain how Parties can fulfil their treaty obligations with respect to enacting and enforcing a comprehensive ban on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship. Among the proposed measures, Parties are invited "to restrict or prohibit the use of logos, colours, brand images or promotional information on packaging other than brand names and product names displayed in a standard colour and font style."1 Australia was the first country to introduce this proposal by adopting the Tobacco Plain Packaging Act in November 2011 with progressive implementation between 1st October and 1st December 2012 2,3 . The objectives of the plain (or standardized) packaging measure are to: "(a) reduce the appeal of tobacco products to consumers; and (b) increase the effectiveness of health warnings on the retail packaging of tobacco products; and (c) reduce the ability of the retail packaging of tobacco products to mislead consumers about the harmful effects of smoking or using tobacco pro...