Granger-causality analysis of integrated-model outputs, a tool to assess external drivers in fishery

Rincón, Margarita M.; Corti, Rachele; Elvarsson, Bjarki Þór; Ramos, Fernando; Ruiz, Javier

doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2019.01.001

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 38 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The optimal environmental window hypothesis, validated in the primary Ekman-type eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems with wind speeds maximizing recruitment around 5 to 6 m s À1 (Bakun & Nelson, 1991;Cury et al, 1995;Cury & Roy, 1989;Roy et al, 1992), extends to western upwelling systems, as demonstrated in the case of the Brazilian sardine, Sardinella brasiliensis, with an optimal environmental window between 3 and 4.5 m s À1 (Jablonski & Legey, 2004). Likewise, it has been documented for small pelagic fish in northern Chile and southern Peru, including the sardine Sardinops sagax with a wind optimum of 7.1 m s À1 (Serra et al, 1998), E. ringens and S. sagax with 5.5 and 5.6 m s À1 , respectively (Yáñez et al, 2003), and E. ringens (Reyes, 2012) with 5.3 m s À1 .…”

Section: Relating Environmental Predictors To Shifts In Anchovy Recru...mentioning

confidence: 78%

“…For example, Ruiz et al (2006) showed the impact of wind on the early life stages of the European anchovy ( Engraulis encrasicolus ), in which intense easterly winds generate an oligotrophic coastal environment and an increase in offshore transport. Rincón et al (2019) used predictive models that associate environmental variables and recruitment to show that wind is the primary source of variability in the population size of E. encrasicolus . On the other hand, it has been postulated that temperature plays a key role in the early stages of marine fish leading to variations in vital rates and survival (Houde, 1989).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Effect of wind variability on the recruitment of anchovy Engraulis ringens in the southern Humboldt upwelling ecosystem

Arteaga,

Vásquez,

Neira

et al. 2024

Fisheries Oceanography

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recruitment is a critical process in the dynamics of fish populations since it represents the abundance of new fish that enter a population each year. In Ekman‐type upwelling ecosystems, wind is a critical factor for small pelagic fish recruitment, as it controls food availability and physical constraints such as turbulence and offshore advection. In this study, we evaluate the effect of wind, chlorophyll‐a, and spawning biomass as independent variables on anchovy recruitment. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), we tested (i) the significance of each factor, (ii) the shape of the relationship between recruitment and predictors variables, (iii) recruitment regimes in the series, and (iv) whether extended windy events are associated with low recruitment levels potentially related to offshore transport of early life stages. The study period spanned from 1990 to 2021, focusing on the austral spring in south‐central Chile (35–40°S) when both upwelling and anchovy spawning are maximized. GAMs revealed a parabolic relationship between the velocity of upwelling‐favorable winds and anchovy recruitment. Maximized recruitment occurred at wind speeds around 6 m s−1 but decreased with winds above 7 m s−1 and below 5 m s−1, and during periods of extended windy events (i.e., those lasting more than 15 days). Chlorophyll‐a showed no significance on anchovy recruitment, suggesting that phytoplankton were not a limiting factor for anchovy early survival. We also found that anchovy recruitment regimes were associated with specific wind intensities. We discussed the pertinence of incorporating a recruitment index based on wind in the fishery management of the anchovy in south‐central Chile.

show abstract

Section: Relating Environmental Predictors To Shifts In Anchovy Recru...mentioning

confidence: 78%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of wind variability on the recruitment of anchovy Engraulis ringens in the southern Humboldt upwelling ecosystem

Arteaga,

Vásquez,

Neira

et al. 2024

Fisheries Oceanography

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The database used to calculate these indicator thresholds was based on data from before 2000 (Millán et al, 1999, Bellido et al, 2000 and, therefore, did not consider the latest fluctuations in stock dynamics. In addition, these outdated life history parameters did not consider a change in the selectivity patterns of the fleet, including minimum size regulations that were effectively implemented after 2001 (Rincón et al 2019). The length estimates conducted at 50% selectivity reproduce this change, however the length estimates at 95% selectivity do not (Figure 3 in the supplementary material), the latter of which show a maximum around 2001 but then return to similar levels to those at the beginning of the time series.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying length-based assessment methods to fishery resources in the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast ecoregion: Stock status and parameter sensitivity

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Many studies have identified possible assumptions that link environmental effects to changes in stock abundance [46][47][48], Rincón et al [49], so it should be required to include environmental variability in fisheries' management approaches [50]. However, it is necessary to first understand the relationship between the environment and fluctuations in stock biomass and to identify the specific factors that may impact stock abundance in order to include these external factors in the fisheries' management approaches [4].…”

Section: Methodological Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic Modelling to Assess External Environmental Drivers of Atlantic Chub Mackerel Population Dynamics

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The population dynamics of small and middle-sized pelagic fish are subject to considerable interannual and interdecadal fluctuations in response to fishing pressure and natural factors. However, the impact of environmental forcing on these stocks is not well documented. The Moroccan Atlantic coast is characterized by high environmental variability due to the upwelling phenomenon, resulting in a significant abundance and variation in the catches of small and middle-sized pelagic species. Therefore, understanding the evolution of stock abundance and its relationship with different oceanographic conditions is a key issue for fisheries management. However, because of the limited availability of independent-fishery data along the Moroccan Atlantic coast, there is a lack of knowledge about the population dynamics. The main objective of this study is to test the correlation between the environment conditions and the stock fluctuations trends estimated by a stock assessment model that does not need biological information on growth, reproduction, and length or age structure as input. To achieve this objective, the fishery dynamics are analyzed with a stochastic surplus production model able to assimilate data from surveys and landings for a biomass trend estimation. Then, in a second step, the model outputs are correlated with different environmental (physical and biogeochemical) variables in order to assess the influence of different environmental drivers on population dynamics. This two-step procedure is applied for chub mackerel along the Moroccan coast, where all these available datasets have not been used together before. The analysis performed showed that larger biomass estimates are linked with periods of lower salinity, higher chlorophyll, higher net primary production, higher nutrients, and lower subsurface oxygen, i.e., with an enhanced strength of the upwelling. In particular, acute anomalies of these environmental variables are observed in the southern part presumably corresponding to the wintering area of the species in the region. The results indicate that this is a powerful procedure, although with important limitations, to deepen our understanding of the spatiotemporal relationships between the population and the environment in this area. Moreover, once these relationships have been identified, they could be used to generate a mathematical relationship to simulate future population trends in diverse environmental scenarios.

show abstract

Granger-causality analysis of integrated-model outputs, a tool to assess external drivers in fishery

Cited by 7 publications

References 38 publications

Effect of wind variability on the recruitment of anchovy Engraulis ringens in the southern Humboldt upwelling ecosystem

Effect of wind variability on the recruitment of anchovy Engraulis ringens in the southern Humboldt upwelling ecosystem

Applying length-based assessment methods to fishery resources in the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast ecoregion: Stock status and parameter sensitivity

Stochastic Modelling to Assess External Environmental Drivers of Atlantic Chub Mackerel Population Dynamics

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About