Grade expectations: how well can past performance predict future grades?

Wyness, Gill; Macmillan, Lindsey; Anders, Jake; Dilnot, Catherine

doi:10.1080/09645292.2022.2113861

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Given the crucial role in the educational system and in granting access to the job market, with significant long-term consequences for students' future lives, it is troublesome that a large part of the variance in SA abilities could not be predicted even when combining FA and past SA scores. As some authors have pointed out (Anders et al, 2020), placing so much weight on a procedure whose determinants are largely unknown is problematic. This justifies further research on the predictors of educational attainment and the development of objective evaluation methods.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Performance in Standardised Assessments from Computer-Based Formative Assessment Data

Garzon,

Berger,

Driver

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Summative assessments (SAs) and formative assessments (FAs) fulfil complementary functions in the educational endeavour. The former measure knowledge acquired at the end of an educational unit in a standardised, high-stakes setting. FAs, by contrast, aim to assess student performance as part of daily classroom activities in order to tailor feedback and instruction. The use of computer-based FA (CBFA) systems has made it technically feasible to collect unprecedented amounts of longitudinal data objectively and with minimal interference for students, under conditions that more closely resemble real-life behaviour. In this paper, we investigated whether and how well FA outcomes can predict SA outcomes in a large sample of children evaluated at different time points during compulsory schooling. To this end, we estimated student abilities using Item Response Theory and performed a systematic comparison of regression models trained to predict SA abilities on different subsets of features derived from FA abilities and auxiliary variables. A model that included mean abilities in different competence domains performed best, and its predictions accounted for a considerable amount of variance, although the proportion of variation explained was still below that predicted by past SA measures. The FA features showed specificity in the sense that the most predictive features generally tended to correspond to abilities from the same or a similar competence domain as the predicted SA ability. Even though CBFA systems implement objective data-collection procedures, we observed systematic biases in the predictions that would need to be taken into consideration when using the models for decision-making.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Performance in Standardised Assessments from Computer-Based Formative Assessment Data

Garzon,

Berger,

Driver

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Another response would be to replace teacher predicted grades with data predicted grades. For example, one could build a prediction model using the previous student cohort's data where achieved grades are known (Wyness et al, 2022). However, assuming that optimism was to be retained, UCAS would still need to quantify the degree of optimism that the prediction model should incorporate.…”

Section: Data Driven Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Student Sociodemographic and School Type Differences in Teacher-Predicted vs. Achieved Grades for University Admission

Leckie,

Maragkou

2023

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In England, students apply to universities using teacher predicted grades instead of their final end-of-school A-level examination results. Predicted rather than achieved grades therefore inform how ambitiously students apply to and receive offers from the most selective courses. The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) encourage teachers to make optimistic predictions to motivate students to apply ambitiously and achieve higher grades. However, little is known about variations in optimism across students and schools, as well as the mechanisms behind such variations. If certain groups of students or schools are predicted more optimistically than others, this may distort application, offer, and acceptance rates between these groups. Such distortions have the potential to impact efforts to promote wider participation and enhance social mobility. In this study, we use newly linked administrative education data to show predicted grades are differentially optimistic by student sociodemographic and school characteristics. These variations are often substantial and can only be partially explained by differences in students’ prior achievements, the subjects they studied at A-level, the degree subjects they pursue, and their choices of university and courses. We find less educationally advantaged students are in general more rather than less optimistically predicted, although there are important exceptions to this trend. Our findings contribute to the growing consensus advocating for reforms to the admissions system, including whereby students can continue to revise their course choices until they receive their achieved grades, and universities only make offers after that date.

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“…Although this may manifest in many ways, one key area where one may observe long-run gains from attending a higher quality school is in the labour market. Specifically, better schools are likely to enhance young people's skills and human capital, while also being more effective at ensuring young peoples' skills are acknowledged through the acquisition of qualifications -both of which may bring labour market rewards (see Wyness, Macmillan and Anders 2022 for an overview of this issue).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The link between school quality and early career labour market outcomes. New evidence from England.

Jerrim,

Christiansen,

Noden

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Research has looked at the impact of education on life outcomes, including earnings. However, there has been little research in England using recent data looking at the association with school quality. Specifically, there is a lack of large-scale research to date investigating the link between school quality and labour market outcomes in England. This paper therefore aims to fill this gap in the field, looking at the association between school quality and (a) earnings and (b) the likelihood of receiving out-of-work (OOW) benefits. This research utilised an administrative dataset (the Longitudinal Educational Outcomes – LEO - dataset, provided by the Office for National Statistics), which links the National Pupil Database (NPD) with other data sources from, for instance, His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Combining the LEO data with Ofsted judgements made it possible to conduct an England-wide study looking at school quality alongside pupil and school level characteristics and how these relate to earnings and the likelihood of claiming OOW benefits later in life. The first year that all schools had been inspected according to the four point Ofsted inspection grade scale was 2009/10, and so our first cohort were followed from the end of key stage 4 (age 15/16) in 2009/10 when they were aged 24/25. However, as primary schools will also contribute towards outcomes, our second cohort followed children from their school’s Ofsted grade at the end of key stage 2 (age 10/11) in 2009/10 up to age 19/20 (the most recent point with data available). We looked at earnings and OOW benefit receipt in the first cohort, but only OOW benefit receipt analysis was possible for the second cohort, as very early career earnings may not be an accurate estimate of future earnings. Our findings for the first cohort show there was a modest association between Ofsted judgements and earnings at age 24/25; the only significant comparison was that attending a school rated as good by Ofsted attracted a 2% earnings premium compared to attending a school judged as requires improvement. A stronger relationship was found between Ofsted judgements and the probability of receiving OOW benefits. For example, a pupil attending an outstanding school during key stage 4 had a 17% chance of experiencing a period of claiming OOW benefits during at least six months from age 15/16 to age 24/25, increasing to 23% for a pupil attending an inadequate school. A similar pattern was observed for the second cohort, whereby the probability of claiming OOW benefits increased across combinations of end of key stage 2 and end of key stage 4 Ofsted grades.While these findings are interesting and the study is the first of this scale in England, there are several limitations to keep in mind when interpreting the results. First , we were only able to look at the first cohort at age 24/25, and the literature suggests many people do not reach their full earnings potential until at least a decade later. With time, we will be able to learn much more from this dataset. It is also important to note that the definition of education quality embodied in inspection is not exclusively aimed at the labour market value of education. Moreover, school inspection is periodic, and tells us about schools at a very specific point in time. It is likely that important aspects about schools vary between inspections, particularly given that they occur relatively infrequently. Furthermore, we were unable to control for factors such as parental background characteristics (such as highest qualification achieved, parental employment, household structure and household income). It would also be desirable in future to follow the cohort from birth, throughout their entire educational journey, including the quality of their early years provision through to their post-secondary destination. The findings of this research are caveated but hopefully lay a solid foundation for further exploration into the journey through education.

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Grade expectations: how well can past performance predict future grades?

Cited by 4 publications

References 21 publications

Prediction of Performance in Standardised Assessments from Computer-Based Formative Assessment Data

Prediction of Performance in Standardised Assessments from Computer-Based Formative Assessment Data

Student Sociodemographic and School Type Differences in Teacher-Predicted vs. Achieved Grades for University Admission

The link between school quality and early career labour market outcomes. New evidence from England.

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