GRACE reveals depletion of water storage in northwestern South America between ENSO extremes

Bolaños, Silvana; Salazar, Juan F.; Betancur, Teresita; Werner, Micha

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125687

Cited by 14 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 120 publications

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“…The similarities and differences between the SH and the mascon data are well explained by Scanlon et al (2016) and Shamsudduha et al (2017). Bolaños et al (2020) evaluate the different products of GRACE for the MC basin through the comparison with water balances based on observed data. They conclude that the best representation of TWS in the MC basin is the GRACE TWS product derived from JPL mascon.…”

Section: Grace Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a previous study carried out in the Magdalena-Cauca river basin (MC basin henceforth) in Colombia (Bolaños et al, 2020), GRACE products were assessed through comparison with water balance-based estimates identifying the mascon product from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory as the best in representing TWS dynamics in the study area. They found the existence of long term trends related to the La Niña and El Niño extreme phases of ENSO.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Benchmarking global hydrological and land surface models against GRACE in a medium-size tropical basin

Chavarría

Werner

Salazar

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The increasing reliance on global models to address climate and human stresses on hydrology and water resources underlines the necessity for assessing the reliability of these models. In river basins where availability of gauging information from terrestrial networks is poor, models are increasingly proving to be a powerful tool to support hydrological studies and water resources assessments. However, the lack of in-situ data hampers rigorous performance assessment, particularly in tropical basins where discordance between global models is considerable. Remotely sensed data of the terrestrial water storage obtained from the GRACE satellite mission can, however, provide independent data against which the performance of such global models can be evaluated. Here we assess the reliability of six global hydrological models (GHM) and four land surface models (LSM) available at two resolutions. We compare Total Water Storage (TWS)'s modelled dynamics with TWS derived from GRACE data over the Magdalena-Cauca basin in Colombia, a medium-sized tropical basin with a comparatively well-developed gauging network. We benchmark monthly TWS changes from each model against GRACE data for 2002–2014, evaluating monthly variability, seasonality, and long-term trends. TWS changes are evaluated at basin level, as well as for selected sub-basins with decreasing basin size. We find that the models poorly represent TWS for the monthly series, but they improve in representing seasonality and long-term trends. The high-resolution GHM W3RA model forced by the Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) is most consistent at providing the best performance at almost all basin scales, with higher-resolution models generally outperforming lower-resolution counterparts. This is, however, not the case for all models. Results highlight the importance of basin scale in the representation of TWS by the models, as with decreasing basin area, we note a commensurate decrease in the model performance. A marked reduction in performance is found for basins smaller than 60,000 km2. Although uncertainties in the GRACE measurement increase for smaller catchments, the models are clearly challenged in representing the complex hydrological processes of this tropical basin, as well as human influences. We conclude that GRACE provides a valuable dataset to benchmark global simulations of TWS change, in particular for those models with explicit representation of the internal dynamics of hydrological stocks, offering useful information for the continued improvement of large-scale hydrological and land-surface models of the global terrestrial water cycle, including in tropical basins.

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Section: Grace Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Benchmarking global hydrological and land surface models against GRACE in a medium-size tropical basin

Chavarría

Werner

Salazar

2021

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In a previous study carried out in the Magdalena-Cauca river basin (MC basin henceforth) in Colombia (Bolaños et al, 2020), GRACE products were assessed through comparison with water balance-based estimates identifying the mascon product from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) as the best in representing TWS dynamics in the study area. They found the existence of long-term trends related to the La Niña and El Niño extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, GRACE data revealed that these trends are not uniform across the study area, but the water depletion rate is more pronounced in the lower parts of the basin than it is in the upper basin. According to Bolaños et al (2020), in the long-term analysis, the effect of climate change on TWS is not conclusive due to the short time series. Therefore, the observed trends may be mainly due to the climatic variability present in the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benchmarking global hydrological and land surface models against GRACE in a medium-sized tropical basin

Chavarría

Werner²,

Salazar³

2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The increasing reliance on global models to address climate and human stresses on hydrology and water resources underlines the necessity for assessing the reliability of these models. In river basins where availability of gauging information from terrestrial networks is poor, models are increasingly proving to be a powerful tool to support hydrological studies and water resources assessments (WRA). However, the lack of in situ data hampers rigorous performance assessment, particularly in tropical basins where discordance between global models is considerable. Remotely sensed data of the terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission can provide independent data against which the performance of such global models can be evaluated. However, how well GRACE data represents the dynamics of terrestrial water storage depends on basin scale and hydrological characteristics. Here we assess the reliability of six global hydrological models (GHMs) and four land surface models (LSMs) available at two resolutions. We compare the dynamics of modelled Total Water Storage (TWS) with TWS derived from GRACE data over the Magdalena–Cauca basin in Colombia. This medium-sized tropical basin has a well-developed gauging network when compared to other basins at similar latitudes, providing unique opportunity to contrast modelled TWS and GRACE data across a range of scales. We benchmark monthly TWS changes from each model against GRACE data for 2002–2014, evaluating monthly variability, seasonality, and long-term variability trends. The TWS changes are evaluated at basin level, as well as for selected sub-basins with decreasing basin size. We find that the models poorly represent TWS for the monthly time series, but they improve in representing seasonality and long-term variability trends. The high-resolution GHM World-Wide Resources Assessment (W3RA) model forced by the Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) is most consistent in providing the best performance at almost all basin scales, with higher-resolution models generally outperforming lower-resolution counterparts. This is, however, not the case for all models. Results highlight the importance of basin scale in the representation of TWS by the models, as with decreasing basin area, we note a commensurate decrease in the model performance. A marked reduction in performance is found for basins smaller than 60 000 km2. Although uncertainties in the GRACE measurement increase for smaller catchments, the models are clearly challenged in representing the complex hydrological processes of this tropical basin, as well as human influences. We conclude that GRACE provides a valuable dataset to benchmark global simulations of TWS change, in particular for those models with explicit representation of the internal dynamics of hydrological stocks, offering useful information for continued model improvement in the representation of the hydrological dynamics in tropical basins.

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“…These changes in near-surface temperature associated with the ENSO phases modify the strength of winds (both easterlies and westerlies) that also explain precipitation differences in both EN and LN (Mesa-Sánchez and Rojo-Hernández, 2020). Despite of the tremendous efforts in studying this phenomenon, the mechanisms behind its effects at a regional and local scale are still being understood (Canchala et al, 2020;Yan et al, 2020;Bolaños et al, 2021;Cerón et al, 2021;Sori et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO Influence on Regional Atmospheric Circulation and Thermodynamics Over Northern South America

Ruiz-Vásquez

Arias

Martínez

2021

Preprint

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The interannual variability of hydroclimatic conditions in Northern South America (NOSA), specially precipitation, is mainly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We explored potential mechanisms that affect precipitation occurrence in NOSA during El Niño and La Niña events over the period 1980-2019, using data from the ERA5 reanalysis. We looked at the atmospheric moisture contribution from different sources using the Dynamic Recycling Model to track water vapour trajectories. Interestingly, conditions with reduced precipitation during El Niño events can take place along with increased precipitable water. To understand this, we analyzed thermodynamic conditions in the atmosphere that are necessary for precipitation to occur over the region, such as convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, lifting condensation level and low--level relative humidity. With this approach, we found more favorable atmospheric conditions for the occurrence of precipitation during La Niña events, even if the content of water vapor was equal or even less than during El Niño events. We also looked at the structure of the regional Hadley circulation in both types of events and found a weakening of the rising motion of the cell during El Niño, which further reduces convective processes over this region. This study provides an integral picture of how precipitation anomalies over NOSA during ENSO events are related both to thermodynamic conditions and sources of atmospheric moisture.

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GRACE reveals depletion of water storage in northwestern South America between ENSO extremes

Cited by 14 publications

References 120 publications

Benchmarking global hydrological and land surface models against GRACE in a medium-size tropical basin

Benchmarking global hydrological and land surface models against GRACE in a medium-size tropical basin

Benchmarking global hydrological and land surface models against GRACE in a medium-sized tropical basin

ENSO Influence on Regional Atmospheric Circulation and Thermodynamics Over Northern South America

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