Government debt forecasting based on the Arima model

Zhuravka, Fedir; Filatova, Hanna; Aiyedogbon, John O.

doi:10.21511/pmf.08(1).2019.11

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…In order to attain the objective, distributed lag models were used, which allowed the modeling of a country's economic development (according to key indicators) within specific forecast scenarios. Zhuravka et al (2019aZhuravka et al ( , 2019bZhuravka et al ( , 2021aZhuravka et al ( , 2021b) studied public debt dynamics, assessed its sustainability, and forecasted Ukraine's public debt using time series analysis. The authors used econom-ic and mathematical analysis to identify the following: global integration has made both domestic and foreign public debt issues universal.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Ukraine’s external debt burden under geopolitical instability

Razinkova,

Nebaba,

Korneyev

et al. 2023

Public and Municipal Finance

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Several specific features and circumstances can characterize Ukraine’s policy of external public debt management, and the results are not always unambiguous. The study aims to assess the effect of external public debt on Ukraine’s economy from 2014 to 2022, a period that includes the Crimea annexation, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the beginning of the open Russian military aggression. To analyze the contemporary state of public debt and assess the degree of external debt burden’s impact on the country’s economy, a factor analysis technique known as the principal components method was used. Via the STATISTICA.12 software, it was substantiated that the debt situation worsens with the growth of debt burden and solvency indicators as their values approach the thresholds. The application of the Kaiser criterion allowed the selection of the most influential indicators (principal components) for assessing the external debt burden. The eigenvalue of the first component (inflation rate) is 4.48, and it explains 50% of the variance; the second component (production of export-oriented goods) has an eigenvalue of 2.43, explaining 27% of the variance; the third component (government spending on military purposes) has an eigenvalue of 1.24, and it explains 14% of the variance.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Ukraine’s external debt burden under geopolitical instability

Razinkova,

Nebaba,

Korneyev

et al. 2023

Public and Municipal Finance

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“…Many scholars and economists have examined various theoretical aspects and frameworks that underpin the management of external public debt during times of conflict. Classic theories such as the debt overhang hypothesis and the optimal debt threshold theory propose that high levels of debt can hinder economic growth and stability, especially in conflict-ridden regions (Zhuravka et al, 2019;Eddassi, 2020;Gentle, 2021). However, in the context of wartime, these theories may need to be reconsidered due to unique challenges and priorities.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

External public debt management during the wartime: Case of Ukraine

Razinkova,

Zhuravka,

Nebaba

et al. 2023

Investment Management and Financial Innovations

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Public debt plays a crucial role in the economic development of many countries, the effective management and servicing of the external public debt have become a priority in the financial and economic policy of the state, ensuring the stability of its development. The article aims to develop Ukraine’s external public debt management system during the wartime. As a result of the analysis, the key negative consequences of the impact of external debt growth on Ukraine`s economic security were determined, i.e. economic growth slowdown, increased dependence on creditors, increased costs of the public debt servicing, significant reduction in domestic consumption, etc. The developed external public debt management system in the framework of state economic and financial security includes relevant subsystems, principles, functions, objects and subjects, methods. It was substantiated that the appropriate external public debt management system during wartime in Ukraine requires the following additional subsystems: subsystem of crisis planning and response, subsystem of external debt settlement and subsystem for ensuring international cooperation.

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“…Слід відмітити, що сучасний стан вітчизняного страхового ринку за своїми інституційними та функціональними характеристиками не повною мірою відповідає тенденціям розвитку світового страхового ринку, що стає на заваді процесам фінансової глобалізації та міжнародної інтеграції України [2]. Так, в Україні мало страховиків з обсягом активів, що дозволяють їм формувати свої доходи за рахунок інвестицій.…”

Section: вступunclassified

Аналіз Стану Та Напрями Розвитку Ринку Страхових Послуг В Україні

Myroshnychenko¹,

Мирошниченко²

2020

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Determining the current state of the insurance market in Ukraine and identifying promising areas for its development. Analysis of the current state of the insurance market is based on methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction. The study of prospects for the development of the insurance services market is based on the methodology of scientific abstraction. The current state of the insurance market is taken into consideration and the dynamics of its development are analyzed. It was found that the current state of the domestic insurance market in its institutional and functional characteristics does not fully meet the trends of the global insurance market. It is substantiated that the functioning of a powerful market of insurance services is an important source of accumulation of funds for their further investment in the state economy. Emphasis is placed on systematizing the function of the insurance services market. The analysis of the main indicators of the insurance services market is carried out. It is established that the indicators of the insurance services market development are insufficient and do not meet the needs of the national economy. The reasons for the decrease in the number of insurance companies in the insurance services market of Ukraine are revealed. insurance companies with foreign capital. It is determined that the reasons for the low level of insurance propagation are the low level of public confidence in insurance companies, lack of awareness of Ukrainians in the insurance sector, and their low capital. The result of the analysis of the state of the insurance services market for 2014-2019 indicates that in general its unsatisfactory condition, which is confirmed by low values of indicators. Reduced number of insurance companies operating in the insurance market, the lack of a unified state strategy for the development of the insurance market in the country, the instability of the economic situation in the country and low confidence in insurers among the population negatively affect the development of the insurance market in Ukraine. The main problems of the insurance services market of Ukraine and prospects of its development were determined. The need to develop an effective and comprehensive strategy at the state level for the development of the national market of insurance services and suggested ways to solve the problems of the modern market of insurance services in Ukraine. Practical significance. The tendencies of development of the market of insurance services of Ukraine are made

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Government debt forecasting based on the Arima model

Cited by 14 publications

References 5 publications

Assessment of Ukraine’s external debt burden under geopolitical instability

Assessment of Ukraine’s external debt burden under geopolitical instability

External public debt management during the wartime: Case of Ukraine

Аналіз Стану Та Напрями Розвитку Ринку Страхових Послуг В Україні

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