Governance of flood risk management in a time of climate change: the cases of Jakarta and Rotterdam

Ward, Philip J.; Pauw, Pieter; Buuren, Arwin van; Marfai, Muhammad Aris

doi:10.1080/09644016.2012.683155

Cited by 128 publications

(114 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(58 reference statements)

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“…Since the severe floods along the Meuse in 1993 and 1995, several studies have been conducted to analyse the past, present, and future hydrological behaviour of the river Meuse and the effects of climate and land-use changes on it (Bates and De Roo, 2000;De Wit et al, 2001, 2006Jacquet et al, 2003;Pfister et al, 2004;Booij, 2005;Aerts et al, 2006;Tu, 2006;Ward et al, 2007Ward et al, , 2008Ward et al, , 2009Ward et al, , 2011bDe Wit, 2008;Leander et al, 2008;; past flood damage (Loche, 1994;Van Meijgaard and Jilderda, 1996;Wind et al, 1999), and flood risk (Ward et al, 2011a). The results of hydrological models for the future generally project that mean winter-season discharge in the future will be greater than it was in the past, and the frequency of floods will increase.…”

Section: Past Research On Flood Risk In the Meuse Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential of semi-structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce future flood risk: case study for the Meuse

Poussin

Bubeck

Aerts

et al. 2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Flood risk throughout Europe has increased in the last few decades, and is projected to increase further owing to continued development in flood-prone areas and climate change. In recent years, studies have shown that adequate undertaking of semi-structural and non-structural measures can considerably decrease the costs of floods for households. However, there is little insight into how such measures can decrease the risk beyond the local level, now and in the future. To gain such insights, a modelling framework using the Damagescanner model with land-use and inundation maps for 2000 and 2030 was developed and applied to the Meuse river basin, in the region of Limburg, in the southeast of the Netherlands. The research suggests that annual flood risk may increase by up to 185 % by 2030 compared with 2000, as a result of combined land-use and climate changes. The independent contributions of climate change and land-use change to the simulated increase are 108 % and 37 %, respectively. The risk-reduction capacity of the implementation of spatial zoning measures, which are meant to limit and regulate developments in flood-prone areas, is between 25 % and 45 %. Mitigation factors applied to assess the potential impact of three mitigation strategies (dry-proofing, wet-proofing, and the combination of dry-and wet-proofing) in residential areas show that these strategies have a risk-reduction capacity of between 21 % and 40 %, depending on their rate of implementation. Combining spatial zoning and mitigation measures could reduce the total increase in risk by up to 60 %. Policy implications of these results are discussed. They focus on the undertaking of effective mitigation measures, and possible ways to increase their implementation by households.

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Section: Past Research On Flood Risk In the Meuse Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential of semi-structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce future flood risk: case study for the Meuse

Poussin

Bubeck

Aerts

et al. 2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…For example, the major floods in 2002, 2007, 2013, and 2014 have caused billions of dollars of direct and indirect economic damage (Bappenas, 2007;Ward et al, 2013a;Sagala et al, 2013). Whilst flooding in Jakarta is not a new problem per se (Noorduyn and Verstappen, 1972), the scale of the flood impacts has increased greatly in the last few decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

Budiyono

Aerts

Tollenaar

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

102

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Abstract. Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the DamagescannerJakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by −46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCPsea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

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“…Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, is extremely susceptible to flooding (Ward et al 2013), and has a long history of floods due to its naturally flood-prone location (Caljouw et al 2005, Steinberg 2007). However, flood disaster impacts appear to have become more severe over the last few decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the effects of climate and land cover changes on river discharge and sediment yield, and an adaptive spatial planning in the Jakarta region

2014

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In Jakarta, climate change has been detected through rising air temperatures, increased intensity of rainfall in the wet season, and sea level rise. The coupling of such changes with local anthropogenic driven modifications in the environmental setting could contribute to an increased probability of flooding, due to increases in both extreme river discharge and sedimentation (as a result of erosion in the watersheds above Jakarta and as indicated by sediment yield in the downstream area). In order to respond to the observed and projected changes in river discharge and sediment yield, and their secondary impacts, adaptation strategies are required. A possible adaptation strategy is through policy making in the field of spatial planning. For example, in Indonesia, presidential regulation number 54 year 2008 (Peraturan Presiden Nomor 54 Tahun 2008 -Perpres 54/2008) was issued as a reference for the implementation of water and soil conservation. This paper assesses the impact of climate and land cover change on river discharge and sediment yield, as well as the effects of Perpres 54/2008 on that river discharge and sediment yield. The spatial water balance model STREAM (Spatial Tools for River Basins and Environmental and Analysis of Management Option) was used for the runoff computations, whilst the SDAS model (Spatial Decision Assistance of Watershed Sedimentation) was used to simulate erosion, Sediment Delivery Ratio, and sediment yield. The computation period is from January 1901 to December 2005, at the scale of the following watersheds: Ciujung, Cisadane, Ciliwung, and Citarum. During the 20 th century, computed average discharge in the downstream area (near Jakarta) increased between 2.5 m 3 s -1 /month and 35 m 3 s -1 /month, and sediment yield increased between 1×10 3 tons/year and 42×10 3 tons/year. These changes were caused by changes in both land cover and climate, with the former playing a stronger role. Based on a computation under a theoretical full implementation of the spatial plan proposed by Perpres 54/2008, river discharge would decrease by up to 5% in the Ciliwung watershed, and 26% in the Cisadane watershed. The implementation of Perpres 54/2008 could also decrease the sediment yield, by up to 61% and 22% in the Ciliwung and Cisadane watersheds respectively. These findings show that the implementation of the spatial plan of Perpres 54/2008 could significantly improve watershed response to runoff and erosion. This study may serve as a tool for assessing the reduction of climate change impacts and evaluating the role of spatial planning for adaptation strategies.

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Governance of flood risk management in a time of climate change: the cases of Jakarta and Rotterdam

Cited by 128 publications

References 39 publications

Potential of semi-structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce future flood risk: case study for the Meuse

Potential of semi-structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce future flood risk: case study for the Meuse

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

Assessment of the effects of climate and land cover changes on river discharge and sediment yield, and an adaptive spatial planning in the Jakarta region

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