Good Night, and Good Luck: Perspectives on Luck in Management Scholarship

Abstract

It is not insignificant that seminal contributions to management scholarship have highlighted luck as an alternative explanation for performance differences between individuals and organizations. Yet it has rarely taken center-stage in scholarship. The principal purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic review of the application of luck in the management literature and in such foundation disciplines as economics, sociology, and psychology. Our analysis finds five common perspectives on luck: (a) luck as Attribution; (b) luck as Randomness; (c) luck as Counterfactual; (d) luck as Undeserved; and (e) luck as Serendipity. We outline various ways in which research on luck may be advanced along each of these perspectives, and develop an underexplored, sixth, perspective on (f) 'luck as Leveler' to provide a possible solution to such issues as social inequality and (unwarranted) executive compensation.

In Search of Behavioral Opportunities From Misattributions of Luck

“…When the focus is on organizations, the stable factors include characteristics such as organizational routines and culture. Keeping this in mind, we will henceforth use the terms skill and luck, following the prior literature on this topic (de Rond & Thietart, 2007;Fama & French, 2010;Frank, 2016;Kahneman, 2011;Liu & de Rond, 2016;Makridakis, Hogarth, & Gaba, 2009;Mauboussin, 2012;Weiner et al, 1971). Whenever performances are not entirely determined by skill but are also impacted on by luck, regression to the mean in performance over time tends to occur (Samuels, 1991;Schmittlein, 1989).…”

Narrativas de sostenibilidad en emprendedores sociales de Lima Metropolitana

“…Esta conciencia de buena suerte, según señala la literatura, conlleva a que las personas sean más optimistas y usen estrategias de afrontamiento más efectivas frente a retos o situaciones potencialmente difíciles (Parnell & Dent, 2009;Whittington, 2016), asumiendo comportamientos adaptativos y racionales que aseguren el éxito de sus iniciativas de manera más persistente y positiva (Liu & De Rond, 2016). Esto convoca un sentido de deber moral que busca ayudar para equilibrar de manera sostenible las propias ventajas con respecto a aquellos que están del otro lado de la balanza (Mancilla, 2015;Pogge, 2008;Stoll, 2015).…”

Luck as a Double-Edged Sword: Personnel and Performance Changes after Lucky Outcomes in the National Football League

“…This 'extra' responsibility is an occupational hazardor in prosperous times, a perquisiteof management careers. Liu and de Rond (2016) argued that leaders whose decisions are successful tend to be venerated as heroes, while those who failed are often treated harshly, even when decisions were identical and largely influenced by chance. Failure leads to exploration of new alternatives (March 1991, Audia andGoncalo, 2007) and deviation from previous choices (Baum and Dahlin 2007).…”

“…Thus, the NFL offers an ideal context to analyze how managers personally perceive and respond to success and failure, whether lucky or unlucky. Liu and de Rond (2016) defined luck as when outcomes are influenced by chance, instead of wholly by skill or deliberate actions. Identifying specific sources of chance is challenging, particularly in skill-luck hybrid games, where it is often difficult to disaggregate the intertwined influences of skill and chance on outcomes.…”

“…Perceptions of success and failure can be shaped by organizational aspirations Shapira 1992, Greve 1998), as well as vicarious learning from the experiences of others (Manz and Sims 1981, Denrell 2003, KC et al 2013. Substantial research has been conducted on how individuals and organizations respond to positive and negative outcomes from both learning (March 2010, Argote 2013) and decision-making (Kahneman and Tversky 1979, Baron and Hershey 1988) perspectives (Denrell et al 2015, Liu andde Rond 2016). This raises the question of how individuals and organizations cope with and learn from unfair, uncertain and/or inaccurate feedback.…”