Abstract:The growing number of federal judicial vacancies impacts judiciary's ability to efficiently resolve litigation. This impact warrants an investigation of any factor that has the potential to affect the number of vacancies. This paper examines three factors in relation to the federal judicial nomination process. The examination is performed through a statistical analysis of judicial confirmation rates in relation to the elements. The elements of principal concern are: the National Labor Relations Board v. Noel C… Show more
“…Since the 103rd Congress, at least, the prevailing trend suggests that fewer and fewer nominees are being confirmed per congress, with the exception of the 116th wherein Senate Republicans prioritized judicial nominations in allocating floor time (see Figure 1). Notably, when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) pushed for the so-called “nuclear option,” lowering the threshold to invoke cloture down to a majority (i.e., 51 votes with all senators voting) in the 113th Congress there was not a significant uptick in the confirmation rate, but scholars have noted his short-term gains in getting his preferred nominees to key benches (Bopp, 2019; Ostrander, 2017; Wawro & Schickler, 2018). Figure 1.Proportion of judicial nominees confirmed, by congress.…”
Significant changes to the federal judicial confirmation process have manifested over the past decade, including multiple procedural reforms in the United States Senate. We argue the “nuclear option,” the reduction of the vote-threshold required to proceed to a final confirmation vote on judicial nominees (i.e., to invoke cloture) from three-fifths to a simple majority, contributed to a renewed escalation of partisan confirmation battles on which the Federalist Society capitalized. Pundits and politicians alike show growing concern about the role of interest groups, especially those associated with the conservative legal movement, in judicial nominations. The intersection of these two sets of changes raises questions about the contemporary judicial nominations process. Utilizing a novel dataset of Federalist Society (FedSoc) affiliates drawn from event listings (1993–2020), we analyze the interactive role of FedSoc affiliation with Senate procedural changes to the judicial confirmation process. We find affiliation with the Federalist Society, after the initial nuclear option was implemented, increases the probability of a circuit court nominee’s confirmation by approximately 20%.
“…Since the 103rd Congress, at least, the prevailing trend suggests that fewer and fewer nominees are being confirmed per congress, with the exception of the 116th wherein Senate Republicans prioritized judicial nominations in allocating floor time (see Figure 1). Notably, when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) pushed for the so-called “nuclear option,” lowering the threshold to invoke cloture down to a majority (i.e., 51 votes with all senators voting) in the 113th Congress there was not a significant uptick in the confirmation rate, but scholars have noted his short-term gains in getting his preferred nominees to key benches (Bopp, 2019; Ostrander, 2017; Wawro & Schickler, 2018). Figure 1.Proportion of judicial nominees confirmed, by congress.…”
Significant changes to the federal judicial confirmation process have manifested over the past decade, including multiple procedural reforms in the United States Senate. We argue the “nuclear option,” the reduction of the vote-threshold required to proceed to a final confirmation vote on judicial nominees (i.e., to invoke cloture) from three-fifths to a simple majority, contributed to a renewed escalation of partisan confirmation battles on which the Federalist Society capitalized. Pundits and politicians alike show growing concern about the role of interest groups, especially those associated with the conservative legal movement, in judicial nominations. The intersection of these two sets of changes raises questions about the contemporary judicial nominations process. Utilizing a novel dataset of Federalist Society (FedSoc) affiliates drawn from event listings (1993–2020), we analyze the interactive role of FedSoc affiliation with Senate procedural changes to the judicial confirmation process. We find affiliation with the Federalist Society, after the initial nuclear option was implemented, increases the probability of a circuit court nominee’s confirmation by approximately 20%.
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