Go where the money is: modeling street robbers' location choices

Bernasco, Wim; Block, Richard; Ruiter, Stijn

doi:10.1093/jeg/lbs005

Cited by 79 publications

(118 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(58 reference statements)

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“…In order to be included in the current analysis, the burglaries had to match several additional selection criteria that are similar to the selection criteria adopted in previous applications of the discrete spatial choice method to studying offence location choice (e.g., Bernasco, et al, 2012;Bernasco & Nieuwbeerta, 2005). These criteria and their impact on the sample size are summarized in Fout!…”

Section: East Flanders and Its Recorded Crime Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In other words, the spatial resolution of existing applications of the approach is not aligned with the outcome of offenders' spatial choice behavior and the decisions they are expected to make when looking for a particular burglary target. In addition, the use of fine-grained spatial units of analysis such as the house that is burglarized has the advantage that it addresses the modifiable areal unit problem and reduces the risk of aggregation bias (Bernasco, Block, & Ruiter, 2012;Oberwittler & Wikström, 2009). Aggregation bias and spatial heterogeneity may impact the outcome of geospatial criminological research.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection at the house-level

et al. 2015

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This article studies how burglars select a house to burglarize. We draw on the rational choice perspective to investigate how burglars select a target by relying on house-related attributes to optimize a combination of perceived rewards, efforts and risk. It extends current applications of the discrete spatial choice framework to burglary target selection by adopting the house as the spatial unit of analysis and studies burglars' target selection process in a larger and more diverse study area than that of earlier studies. Using data on 650 residential burglaries and on approximately 500,000 residential properties in the Belgian province East Flanders, we consider a discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection to establish which house-related attributes influence burglars' target selection process. Our findings demonstrate that terraced houses, houses without a garage, houses that have not been outfitted with a central heating and/or air-conditioning system and houses nearby burglars' residences are more likely to be selected. Overall, our analysis suggests that burglars rely on effort-related attributes to distinguish between targets while higher perceived rewards actually decrease the odds of a house being burglarized. Risk-related attributes are unimportant for burglars' target choice. Highlights We study the burglary target selection process at the house-level  We apply the discrete choice model with a choice set of over 500,000 houses  Higher perceived rewards reduce the odds of burglary  Lower perceived efforts increase the odds of burglary  Burglars do not rely on risk-related information to distinguish between targets

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Section: East Flanders and Its Recorded Crime Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection at the house-level

et al. 2015

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“…Studies analyzing the offender decision-making process related to the location of the crime have mostly been carried out for property crimes such as burglary (e.g., Bernasco & Nieuwbeerta, 2005;Clare, Fernandez, & Morgan, 2009;Coupe & Blake, 2006;Nee & Meenaghan, 2006;Wright, Logie, & Decker, 1995) and robbery (e.g., Bernasco & Block, 2009;Bernasco, Block, & Ruiter, 2013;Petrosino & Brensilber, 2003). Recent studies have also investigated target selection and spatial choices of rioters (e.g., Baudains et al, 2013;Martin, McCarthy, & McPhail, 2009).…”

Section: Environmental Consistency and Serial Offendersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consistency in crime site selection: An investigation of crime sites used by serial sex offenders across crime series

Deslauriers‐Varin¹,

Beauregard²

2014

Journal of Criminal Justice

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Purpose: Knowing sites used by serial sex offenders to commit their crimes is highly beneficial for criminal investigations. However, environmental choices of serial sex offenders remain unclear to this date. Considering the challenges these offenders pose to law enforcement, the study aims to identify sites serial sex offenders use to encounter and release their victims and investigate their stability across crime series. Methods: The study uses latent class analysis (LCA) to identify victim encounter and release sites used by 72 serial sex offenders having committed 361 sex offenses. Additional LCA are performed to investigate the stability of these offense environments across offenders' crime series. Results: Distinct profiles of crime sites that are recurrent across crime series are found, suggesting that serial sex offenders present a limited diversity of victim encounter and victim release sites. Encounter sites representative of longer crime series are also identified. Specifically, the use of sites known to "attract" potential victims decreases over series and offenders become more risk-taking in regard of sites used to encounter their victims. Conclusions: The study identifies patterns of site-selection for the victim encounter and release in cases of serial crimes. Implications for crime linkage and police investigations strategies are discussed.

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“…Thus, they do not function as lightning rods that reduce the risk of damage in their immediate environment but instead infect their immediate environment with increased risk" (pg. 51; see also Bernasco, Block and Ruiter 2013). In sum, to the extent that nonresidential land uses provide criminal opportunity, the effects should be direct such that we argue a concentration of fringe lending establishments should be associated with heightened crime rates.…”

mentioning

confidence: 81%

“…In their study of robbers' motives and methods, Wright and Decker (1997:76-78) provide examples of how robbers are attracted to places where cash flows. And in a similar study using data on roughly 13,000 robberies, Bernasco, Block, and Ruiter (2013) find that robbers "attack near their own 6 homes, on easily accessible blocks, where legal and illegal cash economies are present…" (pg. 199).…”

Section: Theoretical Perspectives On Fringe Banking and Neighborhood mentioning

confidence: 99%