Globalizing labor and the world economy: the role of human capital

Delogu, Marco; Docquier, Frédéric; Machado, Joël

doi:10.1007/s10887-017-9153-z

Cited by 43 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Most structural parameters are assumed to be identical across countries and are calibrated in line with the empirical literature (for more details, see Delogu et al 2017). …”

Section: Parameterization and Baseline Projections For The Twenty Firmentioning

confidence: 99%

Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the Twenty First Century

Docquier

Machado

2017

Ital Econ J

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This paper provides worldwide projections of population, educational attainment, international migration and income for the twenty first century. We develop and parametrize a dynamic, stylized model of the world economy that accounts for interdependencies between socio-demographic and economic variables. Our baseline scenario is in line with the 'high-fertility' population prospects of the United Nations, assumes constant education and migration policies, long-run absolute convergence in total factor productivity (TFP) between emerging and high-income countries, and the absence of economic take-off in Africa. It predicts a rise in the income share of Asia (from 37 to 58% of the world income) and in the demographic share of Africa (from 10 to 29% of the world adult population). Over the twenty first century, the worldwide proportion of adult migrants will increase by less than 1% point (from 3.5 to 4.3%). Keeping its immigration policy unchanged, the 15 members of the European Union will see their average immigration rate increase from 7.4 to 18.2%. In Italy, the immigration pressure will increase fourfold. On the contrary, immigration rates will be fairly stable in the non-European, high-income countries. Then, we assess the This essay is a revised version of the paper prepared within the "Value Added in Motion (VAM)" project funded by the Enel Foundation. We thank Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Giovanni Facchini and Tommaso Frattini for helpful comments. Joël Machado also acknowledges financial support by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (9037210). Author's personal copy 126 F. Docquier, J. Machado sensitivity of our projections to changes in migration policies, TFP disparities, fertility and education. Large increases in the average European (and Italian) immigration rates are obtained under all the scenarios. More than ever, the management of immigration will represent a major societal challenge for European countries.

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“…Most structural parameters are assumed to be identical across countries and are calibrated in line with the empirical literature (for more details, see Delogu et al 2017). …”

Section: Parameterization and Baseline Projections For The Twenty Firmentioning

confidence: 99%

Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the Twenty First Century

Docquier

Machado

2017

Ital Econ J

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“…Specifically, Esipova et al (2011) present a detailed descriptive analysis of migration intentions; Manchin et al (2014) analyze the effect of individual satisfaction on the desire to migrate, while Dustmann and Okatenko (2014) evidence that the relationship between the intention to move (either internally or across borders) and wealth is non-monotonic. Docquier et al (2015) and Delogu et al (2015) have used the origin-specific proportion of the individuals who intend to move to each foreign destination in their analyses of the shortand long-run efficiency gains of a removal of the legal restrictions to migration, assuming that the answers to the hypothetical questions in the Gallup World Polls are informative about the scale of liberalized migration flows. Docquier et al (2014) empirically analyze the country-specific and dyadic factors governing the size and the composition of the bilateral pool of intending migrants, as well as the probability that these intentions are realized.…”

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confidence: 99%

Networks and migrants’ intended destination

Bertoli

Ruyssen

2018

Journal of Economic Geography

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Networks and Migrants' Intended Destination * Social networks are known to influence migration decisions, but connections between individuals can hardly be observed. We rely on individual-level surveys conducted by Gallup in 147 countries that provide information on migration intentions and on the existence of distance-one connections for all respondents in each of the potential countries of intended destination. The origin-specific distribution of distance-one connections from Gallup closely mirrors the actual distribution of migrant stocks across countries, and bilateral migration intentions appear to be significantly correlated with actual flows. This unique data source allows estimating origin-specific conditional logit models that shed light on the value of having a friend in a given country on the attractiveness of that destination. The validity of the distributional assumptions that underpin the estimation is tested, and concerns about the threats to identification posed by unobservables are substantially mitigated.

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“…Using a dynamic model, with endogenous fertility and education, Delogu et al . () find that in the short run the effects of global liberalization of labour movements can bring up to 12 percent in GDP per capita. The long‐term impact of free migration is substantially greater and amounts to 50 percent of GDP per worker in the next century.…”

Section: Related Body Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Trading Goods or Human Capital: The Gains and Losses from Economic Integration

Burzyński

2018

Scandinavian J Economics

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In this paper, I quantify the economic consequences of liberalizing migration in the OECD and compare them with those of a hypothetical liberalization of trade across the OECD. First, I investigate the bilateral migration and trade agreements between the EU and Australia, Canada, Japan, Turkey, and the US. Second, I show that the overall impact of reducing all legal restrictions on migration in the OECD is moderate (1.6 percent in real GDP), while the gains from removing tariff and non‐tariff barriers to trade among all of the OECD economies are slightly lower (1.1 percent in real GDP). Finally, both the theoretical and numerical findings suggest that the direction of relationships between trade and migration (either substitutability or complementarity) depends on the type of shock imposed in the system.

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Globalizing labor and the world economy: the role of human capital

Cited by 43 publications

References 77 publications

Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the Twenty First Century

Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the Twenty First Century

Networks and migrants’ intended destination

Trading Goods or Human Capital: The Gains and Losses from Economic Integration

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