Global Woody Biomass Harvest
Volumes and Forest Area Use Under
Different SSP-RCP Scenarios

Lauri, Pekka; Forsell, Nicklas; Gusti, M.; Korosuo, Anu; Havlík, Petr; Obersteiner, Michael

doi:10.1561/112.00000504

Cited by 24 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…A4). Wood fuel enters demand calculations with a negative income elasticity based on Morland et al (2018) to be consistent with the decreasing residential sector biomass use for energy in an SSP2 world (Lauri et al, 2019;IIASA, 2018). We use the logging residue data from Oswalt et al (2019) indicating that 30% of industrial roundwood harvest is residue.…”

Section: Timber Demandmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…We use a simple demand function specification from Lauri et al (2019), initialized with historical demand volumes from FAOSTAT (FAO, 2017) and shifted over time using changes in GDP and population as shown in equation 2. The demand estimates for roundwood, Industrial roundwood, Wood fuel, Other Industrial roundwood, Pulpwood, Sawlogs and Veneer logs, Fibreboard, Particleboard and OSB, Wood pulp, Sawnwood, Plywood, Veneer sheets, Wood-based panels and Other sawn wood are made independently in the model.…”

Section: Timber Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.2

Mishra¹,

Humpenöder²,

Dietrich³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Out of 1150 Mha of forests designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations account for 11 % (131 Mha) of area and fulfilled more than 33 % of the global industrial roundwood demand. Yet, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand increases competition for scarce land resources between different land-uses for food, feed, livestock and timber production. Despite their significance in roundwood production, the importance of timber plantations in meeting the long-term timber demand and the implications of plantation expansion for overall land-use dynamics have not been studied in detail so far, in particular not the competition for land between agriculture and forestry in existing land-use models. This paper describes the extension of the modular, open-source land-system Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) by a detailed representation of forest land, timber production and timber demand dynamics. These extensions allow for understanding the land-use dynamics (including competition for land) and associated land-use change emissions of timber production. We show that the spatial cropland patterns differ when timber production is accounted for, indicating that timber plantations compete with cropland for the same scarce land resources. When plantations are established on cropland, it causes cropland expansion and deforestation elsewhere. As a result of increasing timber demand, we show an increase in plantations area by 140 % until the end of the century (+132 Mha in 1995–2100). We also observe in our model results that the increasing demand for timber increases scarcity of land, and causes intensification through yield increasing technological change by 117 % in croplands by 2100 relative to 1995. Through the inclusion of new forest plantation and natural forest dynamics, our estimates of land-related CO2 emissions match better with observed data in particular the gross land-use change emissions and carbon uptake (via regrowth), reflecting higher deforestation for expansion of managed land and timber production, and higher regrowth in natural forests as well as plantations.

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Section: Timber Demandmentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: Timber Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.2

Mishra¹,

Humpenöder²,

Dietrich³

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Moreover, the species could be very useful especially for energy production. A rapid increase in bioenergy demands has been predicted for most future scenarios, considering especially ecological (e.g., global carbon balance) and technological issues [70]. Biomass of short-living tree species may significantly contribute to bioenergy production and carbon sequestration [71].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biomass Allocation into Woody Parts and Foliage in Young Common Aspen (Populus tremula L.)—Trees and a Stand-Level Study in the Western Carpathians

Konôpka

Pajtík

Šebeň

et al. 2020

Forests

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Our research of common aspen (Populus tremula L.) focused on the forested mountainous area in central Slovakia. Forest stands (specifically 27 plots from 9 sites) with ages between 2 and 15 years were included in measurements and sampling. Whole tree biomass of aspen individuals was destructively sampled, separated into tree components (leaves, branches, stem, and roots), and then dried and weighed. Subsamples of fresh leaves from three crown parts (upper, middle, and lower) were scanned, dried, and weighed. Allometric biomass models with stem base diameter as an independent variable were derived for individual tree components. Basic foliage traits, i.e., leaf mass, leaf area, and specific leaf area, were modelled with regard to tree size and leaf position within the crown. Moreover, biomass stock of the woody parts and foliage as well as the leaf area index were modelled using mean stand diameter as an independent variable. Foliage traits changed with both tree size and crown part. Biomass models showed that foliage contribution to total tree biomass decreased with tree size. The total foliage area of a tree increased with tree size, reaching its maximum value of about 12 m2 for a tree with a diameter of 120 mm. Leaf area index increased with mean stand diameter, reaching a maximum value of 13.5 m2 m−2. Since no data for biomass allocation for common aspen had been available at either the tree or stand levels, our findings might serve for both theoretical (e.g., modelling of growth processes) and practical (forestry and agro-forestry stakeholders) purposes.

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“…[46] and converted from NOK to SEK. The heating plant investment cost is derived from the per unit capital cost presented by [56]; (b) Operating cost is differentiated on input factor; however, in this application it is standardized for all inputs to the same kind of facility. Operating costs except for heating plants are from [46] and converted from NOK to SEK.…”

Section: Conflicts Of Interestmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Operating costs except for heating plants are from [46] and converted from NOK to SEK. Operating costs for heating plants is the average for heating plants presented by om [56] and added with 100 SEK per ton TS for fragmenting residues and logs [57]; (c) [46].…”

Section: Conflicts Of Interestmentioning

confidence: 99%

Downscaling of Long-Term Global Scenarios to Regions with a Forest Sector Model

Eriksson

Forsell

Eggers

et al. 2020

Forests

Self Cite

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Research Highlights: Long-term global scenarios give insights on how social and economic developments and international agreements may impact land use, trade, product markets, and carbon balances. They form a valuable basis for forming national forest policies. Many aspects related to long-term management of forests and consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services can only be addressed at regional and landscape levels. In order to be attended to in the policy process, there is a need for a method that downscales national scenarios to these finer levels. Background and Objectives: Regional framework conditions depend on management activities in the country as a whole. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of a forest sector model (FSM) as a method for downscaling national scenarios results to regional level. The national FSM takes the global scenario data (e.g., harvest level and market prices over time) and solves the national problem. The result for the region of interest is taken as framework conditions for the regional study. Materials and Methods: Two different specifications are tested. One lets product volumes and prices represent endogenous variables in the FSM model. The other takes volumes and prices from the global scenario as exogenous parameters. The first specification attains a maximum net social payoff whereas the second specification means that net present value is maximized under a harvest constraint. Results: The maximum net social payoff specification conforms better to economic factors than the maximum net present value specification but could give national harvest volume trajectories that deviates from what is derived from the global model. This means that regional harvest activity can deviate considerably from the national average, attesting to the benefit of the use of the FSM-based method

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Global Woody Biomass Harvest Volumes and Forest Area Use Under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios

Cited by 24 publications

References 50 publications

Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.2

Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.2

Biomass Allocation into Woody Parts and Foliage in Young Common Aspen (Populus tremula L.)—Trees and a Stand-Level Study in the Western Carpathians

Downscaling of Long-Term Global Scenarios to Regions with a Forest Sector Model

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