Global Warming Reshapes European Pyroregions

Galizia, Luiz Felipe; Barbero, Renaud; Rodrígues, Marcos; Ruffault, Julien; Pimont, François; Curt, Thomas

doi:10.1029/2022ef003182

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…Early global analyses based on satellite data described 5-8 global pyromes (Archibald et al, 2013;Chuvieco et al, 2008). Since then, studies have used ever-increasing satellite observations to reveal more complex regionalizations at finer spatial scales (e.g., Galizia et al, 2023;Pais et al, 2023;Zubkova et al, 2022). Notably, Zubkova et al (2022) delineated eight Australian and nine African fire regions using fire-relevant climate variables rather than fire metrics directly.…”

Section: Regionalization Of Fire Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world

Cunningham,

Williamson,

Nolan

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire are having profound implications for ecosystems and society globally, but we have limited understanding of the extent to which fire regimes will reorganize in a warming world. While predicting regime shifts remains challenging because of complex climate–vegetation–fire feedbacks, understanding the climate niches of fire regimes provides a simple way to identify locations most at risk of regime change. Using globally available satellite datasets, we constructed 14 metrics describing the spatiotemporal dimensions of fire and then delineated Australia's pyroregions—the geographic area encapsulating a broad fire regime. Cluster analysis revealed 18 pyroregions, notably including the (1) high‐intensity, infrequent fires of the temperate forests, (2) high‐frequency, smaller fires of the tropical savanna, and (3) low‐intensity, diurnal, human‐engineered fires of the agricultural zones. To inform the risk of regime shifts, we identified locations where the climate under three CMIP6 scenarios is projected to shift (i) beyond each pyroregion's historical climate niche, and (ii) into climate space that is novel to the Australian continent. Under middle‐of‐the‐road climate projections (SSP2‐4.5), an average of 65% of the extent of the pyroregions occurred beyond their historical climate niches by 2081–2100. Further, 52% of pyroregion extents, on average, were projected to occur in climate space without present‐day analogues on the Australian continent, implying high risk of shifting to states that also lack present‐day counterparts. Pyroregions in tropical and hot‐arid climates were most at risk of shifting into both locally and continentally novel climate space because (i) their niches are narrower than southern temperate pyroregions, and (ii) their already‐hot climates lead to earlier departure from present‐day climate space. Such a shift implies widespread risk of regime shifts and the emergence of no‐analogue fire regimes. Our approach can be applied to other regions to assess vulnerability to rapid fire regime change.

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Section: Regionalization Of Fire Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world

Cunningham,

Williamson,

Nolan

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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“…However, over past decades, western society has grappled with the direct and indirect impact of extraordinary fire seasons interacting with global environmental and social change (Pausas et al 2008;CEU.JRC. 2017;Moreira et al 2020;Cochrane and Bowman 2021;Duane et al 2021;Wunder et al 2021;Galizia et al 2023;Kelly et al 2023;Meier et al 2023). During the 2023 season, wildfire activity reached uncharted territory in terms of its early onset, area burned and carbon released into the atmosphere, mass evacuations, and fatalities amongst civilians and firefighting personnel in countries such as Canada, Chile, Kazakhstan, Spain, Greece, Italy, Türkiye, Algeria, and US-Hawaii.…”

Section: Introduction: Uncharted Territory -Globally Changing Wildfir...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncharted territory: governance opportunities for wildfire management and the case of Cyprus

Kirschner,

Steelman,

Charalambidou

et al. 2024

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Global environmental and social change are pushing wildfire activity and impact beyond known trajectories. Here, we conducted a targeted review to distill five wildfire challenges that we argue form opportunities for their governance (research aim 1). We exemplified our arguments by drawing from the case of Cyprus (research aim 2), a small island country in the south-east European Mediterranean Basin at risk of extreme wildfire impact. Findings indicate that burning for social and ecological resource benefits, innovative management paradigms and anticipatory governance systems offer actionable solutions to the wildfire paradox and the limits of suppression. Local adaptive institutions and a reconceptualisation of wildfire as a risk and process beyond technocratic interpretations are necessary to account for broader social conditions shaping wildfire regimes and community impact. Governance systems that accommodate collective action have proven suitable to address multiple wildfire complexities linked with different socio-economic systems and values. A systematic literature review, policy review, and qualitative data collection on wildfire management in Cyprus track back to the initial framing. Our case study offers insights for tackling wildfires with actionable steps through overarching governance systems, and illustrates the potential for change in thinking of and acting on wildfire in flammable landscapes globally.

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Maximizing opportunities for co-implementing fuel break networks and restoration projects

Aparício,

Ager,

Day

2024

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Increasing impacts from wildfires are reshaping fire policies worldwide, with expanded investments in a wide range of fuel reduction strategies. In many fire prone regions, especially in the Mediterranean basin, fuel management programs have relied on fuel break networks for decades to facilitate fire suppression and reduce area burned and damage. By contrast, on the fire prone federal forests in the western United States, fuel management is guided primarily by landscape restoration goals, including improving fire resiliency such that wildfires can be managed for ecological benefit, and suppression is used more as a tool to shape burn patterns and less to extinguish fires. New policies in both fire systems are now calling for hybrid approaches that rely on both types of investments and efficient allocation of alternative spatial treatment patterns: linear networks versus patches across the landscape. However, studies that combine these strategies and examine alternative co-prioritization outcomes and potential synergies are largely non-existent. Here, we analyzed scenarios for implementing both types of treatments in concert while varying the prioritization metrics for one type or the other on a western United States national forest. We measured the response related to both treatment strategies including fire intersection rate, improvement in forest resiliency, and net revenue. We found that projects with benefits to both strategies can be identified and mapped independently of the implementation scenario and restoration objective. However, scenarios prioritized for fuel breaks preceding restoration resulted in the identification of more projects that met the criteria for providing dual benefits. The study is a rare example of optimizing hybrid fuel treatment projects that serve both restoration and fire protection goals with different spatial treatment designs.

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Global Warming Reshapes European Pyroregions

Cited by 3 publications

References 83 publications

Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world

Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world

Uncharted territory: governance opportunities for wildfire management and the case of Cyprus

Maximizing opportunities for co-implementing fuel break networks and restoration projects

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