Global warming reshapes European pyroregions

Abstract

Wildland fire is expected to increase in response to global warming, yet little is known about future changes to fire regimes in Europe. Here, we developed a pyrogeography based on statistical fire models to better understand how global warming reshapes fire regimes across the continent. We identified five large-scale pyroregions with different levels of area burned, fire frequency, intensity, length of fire period, size distribution, and seasonality. All other things being equal, global warming was found to alter the distribution of these pyroregions, with a spatial extension of the most fire prone pyroregions ranging respectively from 50% to 130% under 2 and 4 °C global warming scenarios. Our estimates indicate a strong amplification of fire across parts of southern Europe and subsequent shift towards new fire regimes, implying substantial socio-ecological impacts in the absence of mitigation or adaptation measures.

Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world

“…Early global analyses based on satellite data described 5–8 global pyromes (Archibald et al., 2013; Chuvieco et al., 2008). Since then, studies have used ever‐increasing satellite observations to reveal more complex regionalizations at finer spatial scales (e.g., Galizia et al., 2023; Pais et al., 2023; Zubkova et al., 2022). Notably, Zubkova et al.…”