Global warming, elevational ranges and the vulnerability of tropical biota

Laurance, William F.; Useche, D. Carolina; Shoo, Luke P.; Herzog, Sebastián K.; Kessler, Michael; Escobar, Federico; Brehm, Gunnar; Axmacher, Jan C.; Chen, I-Ching; Gámez, Lucrecia Arellano; Hietz, Peter; Fiedler, Konrad; Pyrcz, Tomasz W.; Wolf, Jan H. D.; Merkord, Christopher L.; Cardelús, Catherine L.; Marshall, Andrew R.; Ah‐Peng, Claudine; Aplet, Gregory H.; Arizmendi, Ma. del Coro; Baker, William J.; Barone, John A.; Brühl, Carsten A.; Bussmann, Rainer W.; Cicuzza, Daniele; Eilu, Gerald; Favila, Mario E.; Hemp, Andreas; Hemp, Claudia; Homeier, Jürgen; Hurtado, Johanna; Jankowski, Jill E.; Kattan, Gustavo H.; Kluge, Jürgen; Krömer, Thorsten; Lees, David C.; Lehnert, Marcus; Longino, John T.; Lovett, Jon C.; Martin, Patrick H.; Patterson, Bruce D.; Pearson, Richard G.; Peh, Kelvin S.‐H.; Richardson, Barbara A.; Richardson, Michael G.; Samways, Michael J.; Senbeta, Feyera; Smith, Thomas B.; Utteridge, Timothy M. A.; Watkins, James E.; Wilson, Rohan; Williams, Stephen E.; Thomas, Chris D.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.10.010

Cited by 198 publications

(158 citation statements)

References 76 publications

(117 reference statements)

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“…Conservation of tropical montane biotas in the face of warming temperatures clearly will require protection of entire elevational gradients (31). Whereas species appear likely to shift their distributions upslope, intact elevational gradients will accommodate the large majority of such upslope shifts.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

Freeman

2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

224

204

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Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal tolerance data suggests that tropical species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than temperate-zone species, but this prediction has yet to be tested. We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure distributional responses to temperature increases in the elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally independent New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species richness is roughly five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were similar: upslope shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m (Karkar Island) for lower limits. We incorporated these results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of tropical species with those of temperate-zone species, finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match local temperature increases significantly more closely than in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be strong responders has global conservation implications and provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict widespread extinctions in upperelevation tropical endemics with small ranges.climate change | tropical biodiversity | tropical mountains T emperate species are responding to anthropogenic temperature increases by rapidly shifting geographic distributions to track their climatic niche (1-3). These shifts appear to be increasing in pace-a recent metaanalysis concluded that species are shifting their distributions poleward and upslope much faster than previously estimated (1, 2). Range shifts are less studied in tropical regions however (1, 4, 5), despite being home to the vast majority of biodiversity (6). Notwithstanding strong latitudinal bias in empirical studies, climate change-driven range shifts are predicted to cause widespread extinctions in both temperate and tropical species within the next century (7-10).With scarce empirical data, models of tropical species' response to temperature increases predict a wide range of responses (11). At one extreme, tropical species may be relatively unaffected, as the magnitude of temperature increases is relatively low in the tropics (12). Alternately, vulnerability to warming temperatures could be highest in the tropics if tropical species are physiologically specialized to narrow thermal niches (13-18). Such thermal specialization has been documented in tropical ectotherms (16,17), but it is unclear whether similar patterns may apply to tropical endotherms, whose distributional shifts in response to warming may result from indirect rather than direct impacts of temperature increases (5).We resurveyed geographically and faunally independent elevational gradients in New Guinea nearly a half-century after they wer...

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Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

Freeman

2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

224

204

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“…Precipitation varies greatly throughout the corridor, but sites can be selected that have abundant moisture throughout the year, reducing the impact of precipitation as a controlling variable. Also, there is a conservation imperative to focus on tropical mountains because they are expected to experience the earliest effects of anthropogenic climate change (Wright et al 2009, Laurance et al 2011, Mora et al 2013 and some effects are already occurring (Pounds et al 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The truncated bell: an enigmatic but pervasive elevational diversity pattern in Middle American ants

Longino

Branstetter

2018

Ecography

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Studies on elevation gradients in Panama and Costa Rica have shown that leaf-litter ants exhibit a mid-elevation peak in diversity. This diversity pattern has been observed in other groups and regions, but uncertainty remains as to just how pervasive it is and what might explain it. Here we examine the robustness of the mid-elevation peak in ant diversity across the entire Middle American corridor, from Veracruz, Mexico, to Costa Rica. We sampled 56 sites distributed throughout Middle America. All were in closed-canopy evergreen wet forest, spanning 11° latitude, from near sea level to 2600 m elevation. Ants were extracted from 100 litter samples from each site and identified to genus or species. Model selection was performed on richness and diversity variables to test if ant diversity best fits a linear model or one allowing for a mid-elevation peak. Linear models were also used to examine the relationships among diversity measures and temperature, precipitation, and seasonality. Species richness measures and diversity indices that incorporate relative abundance show a similar relationship to elevation throughout the region: a truncated bell curve with a mode near 400 m. A cubic relationship is statistically favored over quadratic or linear. Temperature is a significant correlate with diversity, but does not predict a bell-curve. Precipitation and precipitation seasonality fail to explain much of the variability, and no combination of environmental variables predicts a bell curve. Potential causes of the truncated bell curve include lowland biotic attrition, mid-point attractors, and ecotonal transitions from lowland to montane communities. Analysis of 17 subclades within ants mostly showed the same truncated curve but six clades were anomalous. Distinctive behavioral or historical features potentially explain their patterns.

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“…The possibilities of success and responses to thermal (low altitude) and water stress may vary according to the degree of specialization that varies between species (Laurance et al 2011, Stevens 1992, Hsu et al 2014, ReinaRodríguez et al 2016) and the intrinsic resistance capabilities linked to their evolutionary history (Darwin 1872). Further studies focused on genotypic and physiological responses of these plants would be desirable in the short term.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Orchids distribution and bioclimatic niches as a strategy to climate change in areas of tropical dry forest in Colombia

Reina-Rodriguez

Mejía²,

Llanos³

et al. 2017

Lankesteriana

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AbstrACt. Climate change projections in Colombia predict an average increase in temperature of 2.6°C and in precipitation of 20% by the end of the century. These changes would directly affect the tropical dry forest (TDF) and its biodiversity. Epiphytic orchids, more exposed to the atmosphere than the terrestrial biota, remain dependent on climatic variables, making them particularly susceptible to climate change. We studied the spatial and temporal changes of a focal group of 12 orchid species typical of the TDF in Colombia, and the future conservation areas to this ecosystem. The algorithm used by MaxEnt was employed for modelling. A total of 439 records: direct observations (276); herbaria collections (159) Other variables analysed, such as distance thresholds of pollinators (Euglossini), availability of phorophytes, and distances to TDF cover and protected areas, all suggest an improving connectivity between the lowland and mid-mountain areas. Consequently, bioclimatic niches (BN) are proposed as a new landscape management unit. Throughout the country, 69 of these BN were located as an adaptation-conservation strategy against climate change in the TDF in Colombia.resumen. Las proyecciones del cambio climático en Colombia, indican en promedio un incremento en 2.6°C de temperatura y 20% de la precipitación para el fin del siglo. Estos cambios afectarán directamente al bosque seco tropical (Bs-T) y su biodiversidad. Las orquídeas epífitas, más expuestas a la atmósfera que la biota terrestre mantienen dependencia de variables ligadas al clima. Esta condición las hace particularmente susceptibles al cambio climático. Nosotros estudiamos los cambios espacio-temporales de un grupo focal de 12 especies de orquídeas típicas del Bs-T en Colombia y las futuras áreas de conservación de este ecosistema. El algoritmo usado por MaxEnt fue empleado para el modelamiento. Un total de 439 registros: observaciones directas (276); registros de herbario (159) y fuentes bibliográficas (4), colectadas desde septiembre de 2009 hasta abril 2015 fueron consideradas para entrenar el modelo. El nicho potencial actual fue comparado con el escenario de emisiones de cambio climático SRES 8.5 para dos periodos: 2020-2049 (2030) y 2040-2069 (2050). Los resultados indican un desplazamiento altitudinal respecto al presente, condicionado por variables como: temperatura, accesibilidad, y precipitación. Las áreas de montaña media (1300-1700 m) incrementarán su idoneidad en los modelos de nicho potencial futuro (2030 y 2050) en detrimento de las tierras bajas (0-1000 m). Otras variables analizadas como umbrales de distancia en polinizadores (Euglossini), disponibilidad de forófitos, distancias a coberturas de Bs-T y áreas protegidas, sugieren mejorar la conectividad entre tierras bajas y áreas de montaña media. En consecuencia, los nichos bioclimáticos (BN) son propuestos como nueva unidad 18 LANKESTERIANA de manejo del paisaje. En todo el país, 69 de ellos fueron localizados como estrategia de adaptación-conservación frente al cambio climático ...

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Global warming, elevational ranges and the vulnerability of tropical biota

Abstract: 2016-12-24T18:13:07

Cited by 198 publications

References 76 publications

Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

The truncated bell: an enigmatic but pervasive elevational diversity pattern in Middle American ants

Orchids distribution and bioclimatic niches as a strategy to climate change in areas of tropical dry forest in Colombia

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