Global Warming and the Problem of Testing for Trend in Time Series Data

Woodward, Wayne A.; Gray, H. L.

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<0953:gwatpo>2.0.co;2

Cited by 156 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…However, as noted by Park and Mitchell (1980) and Woodward and Gray (1993), significant size distortions appear in the test statistic when the coefficient is close to unity. Canjels and Watson (1997) have proposed a conservative approach that controls these size distortions.…”

Section: Review Of the Literature On Deterministic Trendsmentioning

confidence: 81%

An application of fractional integration to a long temperature series

Gil-Alana

2003

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Some recently proposed techniques of fractional integration are applied to a long UK temperature series. The tests are valid under general forms of serial correlation and do not require estimation of the fractional differencing parameter. The results show that central England temperatures have increased about 0.23°C per 100 years in recent history. Attempting to summarize the conclusions for each of the months, we are left with the impression that the highest increase has occurred during the months from October to March.

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Section: Review Of the Literature On Deterministic Trendsmentioning

confidence: 81%

An application of fractional integration to a long temperature series

Gil-Alana

2003

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Monthly mean SST data were obtained from the Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature dataset (HadISST) (43). Two methods are used to test the significance of linear trends: the trend-noise ratio (44) and Mann-Kendall rank statistics (45).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Wang

Liu

Kim

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

343

319

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Prediction of monsoon changes in the coming decades is important for infrastructure planning and sustainable economic development. The decadal prediction involves both natural decadal variability and anthropogenic forcing. Hitherto, the causes of the decadal variability of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) are largely unknown because the monsoons over Asia, West Africa, and North America have been studied primarily on a regional basis, which is unable to identify coherent decadal changes and the overriding controls on planetary scales. Here, we show that, during the recent global warming of about 0.4°C since the late 1970s, a coherent decadal change of precipitation and circulation emerges in the entirety of the NHSM system. Surprisingly, the NHSM as well as the Hadley and Walker circulations have all shown substantial intensification, with a striking increase of NHSM rainfall by 9.5% per degree of global warming. This is unexpected from recent theoretical prediction and model projections of the 21st century. The intensification is primarily attributed to a mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation (a leading mode of interannual-to-interdecadal variation of global sea surface temperature) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and further influenced by hemispherical asymmetric global warming. These factors driving the present changes of the NHSM system are instrumental for understanding and predicting future decadal changes and determining the proportions of climate change that are attributable to anthropogenic effects and long-term internal variability in the complex climate system.

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“…These cores have the potential to provide valuable information on annually resolved climate variability in the region over the past 565 600 years (Thompson, 2000;Thompson et al, 2000). In this paper, we will make use of the annual snow accumulation time series from ice core 1 covering the period 1956-1993(Thompson, 2000 that has the best preserved annual layers and contains signals consistent with ENSO events (Thompson, 2000). Kripalani and Kulkarni (2001) developed a time series of the north China monsoon rainfall (NCR) for June-September.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The trend reaches 90% confidence level with the ESS Student's t-test. It is likely that the shortness of the record is the cause for the lower level of statistical significance (Woodward and Gray, 1993). With regard to the time series in the central Pacific, it has a large degree of inter-annual variability that is undoubtedly related to ENSO (Curtis and Adler, 2000).…”

Section: Other Evidence For Changes In the Global Overturning Circulamentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in the boreal summer regional Hadley and Walker circulations as expressed in precipitation records from Asia and Africa during the latter half of the 20th century

Hong-yan

Moore

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

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West African summer rainfall, north China summer rainfall and a new climate proxy, snow accumulation from the Dasuopu ice core in the southern Himalaya, have all experienced decreasing trends during the latter half of the 20th century. In this paper, we investigate the existence of a common mechanism that explains these geographically dispersed trends during the boreal summer. In particular, we explore the hypothesis that these trends are related to changes in the regional Hadley and Walker circulations. We show that the divergent circulation in the NCEP reanalysis indicates the existence of trends in these circulations that are consistent with the observed changes in the precipitation records. In addition, the regressions of the divergent circulation in the NCEP reanalysis against these precipitation records indicate that a similar globally coherent signal is associated with the time series and their linear trends while the regressions against the de-trended residuals do not contain statistically significant large-scale signals. These similarities lead us to conclude that the decreasing trends in the three precipitation time series during the latter half of the 20th century are consistent with large-scale changes in the global overturning circulation during the boreal summer.

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Global Warming and the Problem of Testing for Trend in Time Series Data

Cited by 156 publications

References 11 publications

An application of fractional integration to a long temperature series

An application of fractional integration to a long temperature series

Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Trends in the boreal summer regional Hadley and Walker circulations as expressed in precipitation records from Asia and Africa during the latter half of the 20th century

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