Global warming and rice production in Asia: Modeling, impact prediction and adaptation

Abstract

Since the projection of global warming emerged in 1980s with the potential of laying enormous impacts on agriculture and food security of the world, we have conducted experimental and modeling studies for clarifying its effects on rice production in Asia and for developing adaptive rice production technologies. On the basis of measurement of rice responses to climate and carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), the dynamic process model named SIMRIW was developed to predict global warming effects on irrigated rice. The model predicted differential regional effects of the projected global warming by doubling [CO2] on the rice yield over Asia, and indicated that high tolerance to heat-induced spikelet sterility and high yield potential under elevated [CO2] are the two important characteristics required for rice genotypes adaptive to global warming environment. Further, genetic traits associated with these characteristics and their genetic resources for breeding adaptive genotypes were identified from diverse rice germplasms. This article reviews our initiative studies in the light of the recent studies, and points out further research that is needed for better understanding and overcoming of this unprecedentedly large problem.

An early-morning flowering trait in rice helps retain grain yield under heat stress field conditions at flowering stage

“…Significant advancement of FOT by qEMF3 in a wide range of environmental conditions Hirabayashi et al, (2015) and Bheemanahalli et al, (2017) (Horie, 2019;Wassmann et al, 2009). By employing staggered sowings in different dry seasons, wide range of average daily maximum temperatures during heading was obtained ( (Table 5).…”

“…Horie (2019) documented that EMF is one of the key traits that could retain rice grain yield by mitigating heat-induced spikelet sterility during flowering under future hotter temperatures in inland of continental South East Asia. Our study clearly demonstrated that EMF trait could diminish heat stress damage at flowering on grain yield through stabilization of PFG in the hot dry season of central Myanmar.…”

Canopy micrometeorology monitoring in diverse climates innovatively improves the evaluation heat-induced sterility of rice under climate change

“…Furthermore, there was a gap between T ab and T in mainly due to the evaporative cooling effect of plant canopy as in Figure 3. Those air temperature gaps are large enough to greatly affect the plant response predicted by using simple crop growth models based on cumulative temperature, or by using rice development models such as those of Horie (2019), Yoshida et al (2010) and Bouman et al (2001).…”

Nexus of Climate Change and USA Mid-South Rice (<i>Oryza sativa</i> L.) Production

“…Generally, the amount of energy absorbed is estimated for a 100-year time frame. Typical GWP values for methane (CH 4 ) range from 25 to 36, with an atmosphere residence of 10 years (Smartt et al, 2016;Simmonds et al, 2015;Horie, 2019). Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) has GWP values ranging from 265 to 298, with an atmosphere residence time of more than 100 years.…”

“…Wichelns also reported on studies indicating that increased CO 2 and increased temperatures may synergistically further spikelet sterility. High temperature impacts on pollen viability and spikelet sterility are more prominent in indica cultivars than japonica cultivars, a feature partially attributed to enhanced nighttime temperatures having a smaller influence on carbon assimilation for indica cultivars (Horie, 2019). Ali et al (2013) observed rice variety variations from the Australian rice breeding program for yield response during the reproductive and grain fill stages.…”