Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza

Thompson, Robin N; Wood, JG; Tempia, Stefano; Muscatello, DJ

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2022.06.022

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The fits for Vietnam, however, suggested basic reproduction numbers below, but near, one, with effective reproduction numbers increasing to values above one during the fitted periods of increased infectivity. While reproduction numbers of influenza have previously been estimated to be above one in tropical settings and other countries in Asia, some evidence has shown that reproduction numbers globally trend higher in countries farther from the equator, and some tropical locations in Brazil have seen reproduction numbers below one (66–68). This may explain the seemingly constant presence of influenza in Vietnam; an effective reproduction number that is consistently close to one would allow infections to persist in the population in lower quantities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics

Servadio

Thái

Choisy

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Much of the world experiences influenza in yearly recurring seasons, particularly in temperate areas. These patterns can be considered repeatable, occurring predictably and consistently. In tropical areas, including southeast Asia, this consistency is less conspicuous. This study aimed to assess repeatability of influenza in Vietnam. A mathematical model was developed incorporating periods of increased transmission, and fit to data from sentinel hospitals throughout Vietnam as well as four temperate locations. Repeatability was evaluated through the variance of the timings of peak transmission. Model fits from Vietnam show high variance (sd = 70-171) in peak transmission timing; peaks occurred at irregular intervals and throughout different times of year. Fits from temperate locations showed regular, annual epidemics in winter months, with low variance in peak timings (sd = 33-74). This suggests that influenza patterns are not repeatable or seasonal in Vietnam. Influenza prevention in Vietnam therefore cannot rely anticipating regularly occurring outbreaks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics

Servadio

Thái

Choisy

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The fits for Vietnam, however, suggested basic reproduction numbers below, but near, one, increasing above one during the fitted periods of increased infectivity. Some evidence has shown that reproduction numbers globally trend higher in countries farther from the equator, and some tropical locations in Brazil have seen reproduction numbers below one [83][84][85]. An effective reproduction number that is consistently close to one in Vietnam would allow infections to persist in the population in lower quantities.…”

Section: Differences In Transmission Intensity Between Temperate and ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics

et al. 2023

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Much of the world experiences influenza in yearly recurring seasons, particularly in temperate areas. These patterns can be considered repeatable if they occur predictably and consistently at the same time of year. In tropical areas, including southeast Asia, timing of influenza epidemics is less consistent, leading to a lack of consensus regarding whether influenza is repeatable. This study aimed to assess repeatability of influenza in Vietnam, with repeatability defined as seasonality that occurs at a consistent time of year with low variation. We developed a mathematical model incorporating parameters to represent periods of increased transmission and then fitted the model to data collected from sentinel hospitals throughout Vietnam as well as four temperate locations. We fitted the model for individual (sub)types of influenza as well as all combined influenza throughout northern, central, and southern Vietnam. Repeatability was evaluated through the variance of the timings of peak transmission. Model fits from Vietnam show high variance (sd = 64–179 days) in peak transmission timing, with peaks occurring at irregular intervals and throughout different times of year. Fits from temperate locations showed regular, annual epidemics in winter months, with low variance in peak timings (sd = 32–57 days). This suggests that influenza patterns are not repeatable or seasonal in Vietnam. Influenza prevention in Vietnam therefore cannot rely on anticipation of regularly occurring outbreaks.

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“…On the other hand, influenza viruses exert a high heterogenicity and can cause seasonal epidemics worldwide, resulting in elevated rates of morbidity and mortality [139][140][141]. They can be classified into four types according to their antigenicity: A, B, C, and D. Among them, influenza A viruses can be considered the most pathogenic for humans [142].…”

Section: Sodium Selenite and Viral Infectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seleno-Metabolites and Their Precursors: A New Dawn for Several Illnesses?

et al. 2022

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Selenium (Se) is an essential element for human health as it is involved in different physiological functions. Moreover, a great number of Se compounds can be considered potential agents in the prevention and treatment of some diseases. It is widely recognized that Se activity is related to multiple factors, such as its chemical form, dose, and its metabolism. The understanding of its complex biochemistry is necessary as it has been demonstrated that the metabolites of the Se molecules used to be the ones that exert the biological activity. Therefore, the aim of this review is to summarize the recent information about its most remarkable metabolites of acknowledged biological effects: hydrogen selenide (HSe−/H2Se) and methylselenol (CH3SeH). In addition, special attention is paid to the main seleno-containing precursors of these derivatives and their role in different pathologies.

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Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza

Cited by 5 publications

References 53 publications

Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics

Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics

Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics

Seleno-Metabolites and Their Precursors: A New Dawn for Several Illnesses?

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