Global Value Chains: Measurement, Trends and Drivers

Cigna, Simone; Gunnella, Vanessa; Quaglietti, Lucia

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4007756

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Countries with vulnerable values close to 0 differ across periods, but countries like Japan (JPN) and the United States (USA), in addition to Brazil (BRA), Australia (AUS), Iran (IRN), and Venezuela (VEN), consistently have values close to 0. This observation is particularly interesting because it highlights that countries typically considered to be advanced nations rich in natural resources [21,22] tend to have relatively small vulnerable values. This trend can be explained by examining how vulnerable values are calculated.…”

Section: Evolution Of Vulnerable Values and Their Influence On Other ...mentioning

confidence: 97%

The potential for cascading failures in the international trade network

Kang,

Lee,

Yang

2024

PLoS ONE

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In our study, we introduce indicators that quantify the influence of each country in complex trade scenarios involving the exchange of raw materials, intermediate goods, and final products across multiple countries. We systematically employ an agent-based model to simulate the propagation of failures from one node to the entire network. This approach allows for the assessment of the impact of each country and the identification of patterns of interaction in the multi-step trade network. Unlike conventional analyses of trade networks, which depict straightforward single-step import/export transactions, our approach captures the intricate realities of processes like raw material procurement, production, and sales in numerous countries from a macroscopic perspective. The findings of our analysis of trade data spanning from 1990 to 2022 reveal several key insights. Firstly, sensitivity to changes in trade volume leading to global failures within interconnected networks has intensified over time. The potential of failure propagation across countries has increased over time, as has the interconnectedness of countries in the global trade landscape. Secondly, despite the increased sensitivity to changes in global trade volume, many countries have become less vulnerable to the influence of others within their multi-step trade networks. This trend aligns with deglobalization, which is evidenced by events such as Brexit and the surge in protectionist measures; these changes indicate a shift in the balance of influence within global trade networks. Thirdly, the results of our analysis of the relationship between load changes and global failures from a regional perspective reveal an intriguing phenomenon: despite limited direct trade connectivity, the interaction between the Latin American and Sub-Saharan African regions is considerable. This suggests the existence of hidden connections between intermediary countries, such that one region’s actions can alter the load sensitivity of another, impacting them in unforeseen ways. Furthermore, intra-regional interactions are diminishing in East Asia, while Europe is experiencing a gradual increase in interactions. These trends reflect evolving regional influence, the dynamics of geographic proximity, and the results of economic integration efforts. Additionally, even though the observed period was not long enough to confirm a long-term trend, the previous trend direction was affirmed to persist despite a temporary decrease in trading and reduced sensitivity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study highlights the complexity of global trade dynamics and the need to consider multi-step trade networks and their potential cascading effects when analyzing trade patterns and vulnerabilities.

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Section: Evolution Of Vulnerable Values and Their Influence On Other ...mentioning

confidence: 97%

The potential for cascading failures in the international trade network

Kang,

Lee,

Yang

2024

PLoS ONE

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“…In this regard, given the poor technological and economic viability of fragmentation in a specialization pattern based on natural resources, the link to GVCs through the export of raw materials does not usually result in major structural transformations in economies (Veiga and Rios, 2007). The development of regional productive links based on the exploitation of natural resources should therefore be seen as the beginning of a long-range planned process of productive upgrading (Cigna et al, 2022). On the other hand, maintaining a regional trade pattern based on the simple exchange of products and inputs of primary origin, with little value-added, will result in a dependent, shallow and short-range integration process.…”

Section: Theoretical Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of trade and productive integration in Latin America, 1995–2015: an input-output analysis

Vázquez-López

2024

JEFAS

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PurposeThe main goal of this paper is to examine the evolution of Latin American productive integration in terms of the regional value added incorporated in intra-regional exports of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. In addition, the study traces the trade and productive integration trajectories for each of these countries from 1995 to 2015.Design/methodology/approachBased on the use of OECD’s global ICIO input-output tables, this paper applies the methodological framework by Wang et al. (2018) for the analysis of trade flows at the bilateral level, which allows breaking down the value of gross exports of each sector-country, depending on the origin of the value added contained in exports, as well as their use.FindingsThe estimates show very low shares of value added from regional partners in the intra-regional exports of the countries studied. Conversely, the weight of the value added incorporated in these exports by countries outside the region has increased in tandem with China’s expanding involvement in Latin America. This development, along with the downward trend in domestic value added incorporated in exports, indicates a lack of a regional integration process of any depth.Originality/valueThis article addresses an economic problem of conventional importance from a global value chain perspective using a novel methodology based on the use of global input–output tables.

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“…En un mundo dominado por la lógica de las CGV, donde los bienes intermedios cruzan varias fronteras antes de llegar al consumidor final, esto implica que las exportaciones brutas pueden estar sujetas a una doble contabilidad significativa. Para abordar este problema, el análisis de CGV pasó a enfocarse cada vez más en el concepto de "comercio de valor agregado" (Cigna et al, 2022). Como parte de esto, las exportaciones brutas se desglosan por país e industria de origen, y destino del valor agregado.…”

Section: Alcance Geográficounclassified

Las políticas de desarrollo productivo frente a los nuevos imperativos de las cadenas globales de valor

Filippo,

Guaipatín,

Navarro

et al. 2023

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En un contexto en el que los imperativos de resiliencia y sostenibilidad de la producción imponen cambios en los modelos de operación de las Cadenas Globales de Valor (CGV), los países de América Latina y el Caribe enfrentan grandes oportunidades y desafíos. Este trabajo presenta un esquema conceptual para el diseño de Políticas de Desarrollo Productivo (PDP) orientadas a mejorar la integración de las empresas de la región en CGV. Para ello, luego de presentar las principales dimensiones de análisis para un mapeo de las CGV y las nuevas condiciones de entorno en que operan, se analizan los principales desafíos de política pública para que los países de la región alcancen ganancias de productividad, que les permitan no solo mejorar su inserción en CGV, sino también aprovechar al máximo las ganancias dinámicas de productividad que se derivan de participar en ellas. Considerando estos antecedentes y en base a una sistematización de las lecciones aprendidas de la experiencia del BID en más de veinte años de operaciones vinculadas al desarrollo de cadenas de valor, se presentan los principales lineamientos que deben considerarse a la hora de definir un marco de intervención de PDP enfocado al efecto.

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Global Value Chains: Measurement, Trends and Drivers

Cited by 14 publications

References 43 publications

The potential for cascading failures in the international trade network

The potential for cascading failures in the international trade network

Evolution of trade and productive integration in Latin America, 1995–2015: an input-output analysis

Las políticas de desarrollo productivo frente a los nuevos imperativos de las cadenas globales de valor

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