Global Triptych: a bottom-up approach for the differentiation of commitments under the Climate Convention

Abstract

In the coming years the international debate on commitments for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol will intensify. In this study, the Global Triptych approach is put forward as an input for international decision-making concerning the differentiation of commitments by 2020. It is a sector-and technology-oriented approach, and we calculated quantitative emission limitation objectives and global emissions starting from bottomup information on long-term reduction opportunities. Central to the calculations were long-term sustainability targets for the year 2050, formulated for (1) energy efficiency in the energy-intensive industry, (2) greenhouse gas intensity of electricity production, and (3) per capita emissions in the domestic sectors. Calculated emission limitation objectives for 13 world regions ranged from about -30% to more than +200%. The ranking of world regions in the differentiation turned out to be independent of the levels chosen for the long-term sustainability targets. The objectives seem sufficient to maintain the long-term possibility of stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at about 550 ppm CO 2 -eq, but will require severe emission reductions. These may be relaxed to a certain degree if stabilization at 650 ppm CO 2 -eq is aimed for. We conclude that the bottom-up character of the approach made it possible to examine important basic principles of the Climate Convention, including equity, the needs and circumstances of developing countries, cost-effectiveness and sustainable development.

Regional abatement action and costs under allocation schemes for emission allowances for achieving low CO2-equivalent concentrations

“…This raises important questions on about the level of commitment from developed and developing countries that is consistent with low stabilisation scenarios, and about the regional cost implications of these commitments. Several studies have analysed the level of commitment of different regions and countries and the timing of participation required to ensure meeting different concentration stabilisation targets for levels of 550 ppm CO 2 -equivalent (or the consistent level of 450 ppm CO 2 ) (see for example Berk and den Elzen 2001;Blanchard 2002;Criqui et al 2003;den Elzen et al 2005aden Elzen et al , b, 2006den Elzen and Lucas 2005;Groenenberg et al 2004;Höhne et al 2005Höhne et al , 2006Jacoby et al 1999;Metz et al 2002;Nakicenovic and Riahi 2003;Persson et al 2006;Winkler et al 2002). The number of studies analysing the regional abatement costs at levels below 550 ppm CO 2 -eq.…”

Valueloading And Uncertainty In A Sector-based Differentiation Scheme For Emission Allowances

“…Values for the valueladen parameters were differentiated over the four value-orientations according to Table VII. The values of the remaining parameters and input data were varied according to the probability density functions, for which an argumentation can be found in Groenenberg (2002). Thus, four ranges of resulting reduction objectives were obtained for each of the countries included in the analysis.…”

“…We will now briefly describe each of the three sectors. Note that Groenenberg (2002) specified the various input data and parameters in each of the sectors. The algorithms for each of the sectors have been given in Appendix I.…”

“…In a more recent study Ringius et al (2002) reviewed the most relevant elements for a widely accepted approach to burden differentiation in future international climate negotiations. They identified three equity principles: (1) responsibility: 'costs should be distributed in relation to a country's share of responsibility for causing the problem'; (2) capacity: 'costs should be distributed in relation to a country's ability to pay', or alternatively (see Groenenberg, 2002) to its (technical) 'ability to reduce'. According to the latter interpretation countries that can easily utilise their potentials for emission reduction would be assigned more stringent reduction targets; (3) need: 'all individuals have equal rights to pollution permits, with a minimum to secure basic human needs, including a decent standard of living'.…”

“…This paper constitutes a further exploration of the Triptych approach. Insights gained from the present study have been used to make the original approach more suited for the global context (Groenenberg, 2002).…”