Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Challenges for Inflation and Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Bolhuis, Marijn; Hakobyan, Shushanik; Andriantomanga, Zo

doi:10.5089/9798400235436.001

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Recent studies that quantify aggregate losses in this context include Attinasi et al (2023), Felbermayr et al (2023, Javorcik et al (2022) and others. 4 Most related and complementary to our analysis are Fally and Sayre (2018) and Bolhuis et al (2023), who show that the specific features of commodities amplify the aggregate effects of trade disruptions in multicountry, multisector trade models. Bachmann et al (2022), Chepeliev et al (2022), Di Bella et al (2022, Albrizio et al (2023) and others focus on the implications of supply disruptions to natural gas and oil markets mostly based on second order approximations derived from multicountry multisector trade models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Starting from the methodology of Fally and Sayre (2018) and updated by Bolhuis et al (2023), we create the new dataset with several key innovations. First, we develop a set of adjustment factors to correct for different unit measurements for mineral commodities in the ©International Monetary Fund.…”

Section: A New Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Third, taking the concordances between minerals trade and production data from Fally and Sayre (2018) and Bolhuis et al (2023) as a starting point, we develop concordances between the HS codes and commodity definitions used in production data. We do so based on consultations with the British Geological Survey (BGS) as well as the commodity-specific industry literature (see Tables A .2, A.3, and A.4 in the Appendix for the mapping between trade and production data for each commodity).…”

Section: A New Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2 A general equilibrium exercise fragmenting multiple commodities would require further assumptions on how and which combination of markets are fragmented as well as a granular input-output matrix linking different commodity markets to other goods and services (see Fally and Sayre, 2018;Bolhuis et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets

Alvarez

2023

IMF Working Papers

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This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation -which has accelerated since Russia's invasion of Ukraine -could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: A New Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A New Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets

Alvarez

2023

IMF Working Papers

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“…Second, food prices in SSA have risen substantially over the years (Bolhuis & Kovacs, 2022;Okou et al, 2022). Headey (2016) revealed that the implications of the rise in food prices on poverty may be negative or positive.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food prices and poverty in Africa

Iheonu,

Oladipupo

2023

Sustainable Development

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This study investigated the effect of food prices on poverty in 37 sub‐Saharan African economies between 2001 and 2020. The study employed Prais‐Winsten regression, variations of the Fixed Effects model to account for conventional biases in econometric modeling, and the Method of Moment Quantile Regression with Fixed Effects to account for existing poverty levels. The findings revealed that a higher proportion of Africans will fall into poverty due to the increase in food prices. This result is consistent with the presence of endogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence, and unobservable heterogeneity. The study also reveals that the increase in food prices has a greater effect in sub‐Saharan African countries with lower levels of poverty as compared to those with high poverty levels, showing that rising food prices disproportionately hurt countries with low poverty levels, pushing more Africans below the poverty line in those countries. The study recommends the need for the implementation of supply‐side agricultural policies that enhance productivity in the sector, thereby boosting aggregate agricultural supply and precipitating a decline in food prices.

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Analyzing the impact of container shipping service reliability on global supply chain pressure: An asymmetric approach

AÇIK

2023

Marine and Life Sciences

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Delays in international trade negatively affect the global world economically, commercially, and politically. We aimed to empirically determine the asymmetrical effect of the delays experienced in the arrival of container shipping vessels to their destinations on the pressure on the global supply chain by using Global Schedule Reliability (GSR) and Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The dataset covers the period between January 2017 and April 2023 and consists of 76 observations. The results show that the effect of delays on the supply chain is asymmetrical, while the increase in delays increases the pressure, the decrease in delays has no effect. This shows that the effects of delays on the supply chain are sticky and take a long time to clear from the system. In this direction, policies are recommended to minimize the effect of delays on international trade.

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Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Challenges for Inflation and Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Cited by 4 publications

References 19 publications

Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets

Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets

Food prices and poverty in Africa

Analyzing the impact of container shipping service reliability on global supply chain pressure: An asymmetric approach

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