Global spatial assessment of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus: a scenario of Zika virus exposure

Abstract

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an arbovirus transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Recent scientific evidence on Culex quinquefasciatus has suggested its potential as a vector for ZIKV, which may change the current risk zones. We aimed to quantify the world population potentially exposed to ZIKV in a spatially explicit way, considering the primary vector (A. aegypti) and the potential vector (C. quinquefasciatus). Our model combined species distribution modelling of mosquito species with spatially explicit human population data to estimate ZIKV exposure risk. We estimated the potential global distribution of C. quinquefasciatus and estimated its potential interaction zones with A. aegypti. Then we evaluated the risk zones for ZIKV considering both vectors. Finally, we quantified and compared the people under risk associated with each vector by risk level, country and continent. We found that C. quinquefasciatus had a more temperate distribution until 42° in both hemispheres, while the risk involving A. aegypti is concentrated mainly in tropical latitudes until 35° in both hemispheres. Globally, 4.2 billion people are under risk associated with ZIKV. Around 2.6 billon people are under very high risk associated with C. quinquefasciatus and 1 billion people associated with A. aegypti. Several countries could be exposed to ZIKV, which emphasises the need to clarify the competence of C. quinquefasciatus as a potential vector as soon as possible. The models presented here represent a tool for risk management, public health planning, mosquito control and preventive actions, especially to focus efforts on the most affected areas.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

“…aegypti and Ae. albopictus having been repeatedly studied [107,131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139,140]. Cx.…”

Discoveries of Exoribonuclease-Resistant Structures of Insect-Specific Flaviviruses Isolated in Zambia

“…Similarly, Culex spp. mosquitoes are also distributed worldwide but are most prevalent in tropical and sub-tropical regions [12,13]. These mosquitoes are well known as vectors for encephalitic viruses, including WNV, SLEV, Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), and Sindbis virus (SINV) [12].…”

Expansion of the Emerging Fungal Pathogen Cryptococcus bacillisporus Into America: Linking Phylogenetic Origin, Geographical Spread and Population Under Exposure Risk

“…The aim is to predict the environmental suitability for the species based on its ecological niche requirements. The spatial prediction of an SDM can be homologated to the potential abundance of organisms ( Phillips et al, 2006 ), and it has proven to generate reliable results for the modeling of infectious disease vectors ( Alaniz et al, 2017 , 2018 , 2020 ). We compiled and systematized an occurrence database consisting of 29 occurrences of C. bacillisporus environmental isolates according to the following criteria: (A) avoiding isolates from humans due to the uncertainty related to the movement of the patient, however we included four human occurrences from Lockhart et al, 2013 which denoted no travel history of patients, (B) excluding those without specific geographical coordinates (latitude and longitude) reducing the uncertainty on the location and (C) excluding the Chilean isolate to predict the distribution based on the source zone niche ( Supplementary Appendix Figure S1 and Supplementary Appendix Table S1 ) ( Pfeiffer and Ellis, 1991 ; Escandón et al, 2006 ; Mazza et al, 2013 ; Singer et al, 2014 ; Springer et al, 2014 ; Espinel-ingroff and Kidd, 2015 ).…”

“…The similar climate conditions between Chile’s Mediterranean zone and California suggests a potential dispersal of the pathogen favored by similar climatic conditions and hence possible environmental suitability. Previous studies have identified the spatial distribution of C. neoformans and C. gattii species complex distributions in Europe through the ecological niche modeling of their bioclimatic conditions suitable for their survival ( Cogliati et al, 2017 ; Alaniz et al, 2020 ), methodology that has also been succesfully applied to other recent global infectious diseases ( Alaniz et al, 2017 , 2018 ). Considering the latter, the aim of this study is to analyze: (i) the geographical and phylogenetic origin of the sample; (ii) the potential geographical spread in this new area; and (iii) the population exposed to the risk.…”