Global simulation of bioenergy crop productivity: analytical framework and case study for switchgrass

Kang, Suhyun; Nair, Sujithkumar Surendran; Kline, Keith L.; Nichols, Jeffrey A.; Wang, Dali; Post, Wilfred M.; Brandt, Craig C.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Singh, Nawab; Wei, Yaxing

doi:10.1111/gcbb.12047

Cited by 21 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(52 reference statements)

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“…The CENTURY model was among the first to be applied to bioenergy sustainability assessment, and it and its derivative DayCent model have been widely used to evaluate corn grain production, corn stover removal, and the dedicated cultivation of switchgrass and Miscanthus from the level of individual sites to national scales (Sheehan et al ., ; Kim & Dale, ; Chamberlain et al ., ; Davis et al ., ; Lee et al ., ; Duval et al ., ). The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model has also been applied extensively to bioenergy feedstocks in the context of economic analyses (Jain et al ., ; Egbendewe‐Mondzozo et al ., ) and environmental sustainability assessments (Gelfand et al ., ) at scales from regional (Zhang et al ., ) to global (Kang et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…However, many bioenergy assessment studies are based on models parameterized under prime conditions and then extrapolated to highly marginal sites, or lacking an explicit independent validation of performance (e.g. Gelfand et al ., ; Kang et al ., ). In the case of the DayCent model, parameterization typically involves adjusting study site and crop parameters by hand in order to match observed real‐world performance for a small number of field trial cases for which extensive data are available (Del Grosso et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Ecosystem model parameterization and adaptation for sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design

et al. 2016

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Renewable fuel standards in the US and elsewhere mandate the production of large quantities of cellulosic biofuels with low greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints, a requirement which will likely entail extensive cultivation of dedicated bioenergy feedstock crops on marginal agricultural lands. Performance data for such systems is sparse, and non-linear interactions between the feedstock species, agronomic management intensity, and underlying soil and land characteristics complicate the development of sustainable landscape design strategies for low-impact commercial-scale feedstock production. Process-based ecosystem models are valuable for extrapolating field trial results and making predictions of productivity and associated environmental impacts that integrate the effects of spatially variable environmental factors across diverse production landscapes. However, there are few examples of ecosystem model parameterization against field trials on both prime and marginal lands or of conducting landscape-scale analyses at sufficient resolution to capture interactions between soil type, land use, and management intensity. In this work we used a data-diverse, multi-criteria approach to parameterize and validate the DayCent biogeochemistry model for upland and lowland switchgrass using data on yields, soil carbon changes, and soil nitrous oxide emissions from US field trials spanning a range of climates, soil types, and management conditions. We then conducted a high-resolution case study analysis of a real-world cellulosic biofuel landscape in Kansas in order to estimate feedstock production potential and associated direct biogenic GHG emissions footprint. Our results suggest that switchgrass yields and emissions balance can vary greatly across a landscape large enough to supply a biorefinery in response to variations in soil type and land-use history, but that within a given land base both of these performance factors can be widely modulated by changing management intensity. This in turn implies a large sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design space within which a system can be optimized to meet economic or environmental objectives.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Ecosystem model parameterization and adaptation for sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design

et al. 2016

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“…These features have lead researchers to propose that CAM plantations could be more resilient to climate change and offer higher productivity on lowgrade and marginal lands than conventional C3 and C4 biomass crops (Borland et al, 2009(Borland et al, , 2014Davis et al, 2011). We tested these hypotheses by (i) constructing a global-scale geospatial productivity model for the CAM biomass candidates Agave tequilana and Opuntia ficusindica, (ii) simulating productivity under present-day and future climate scenarios using outputs from representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios presented in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report (AR5), (iii) applying macro-scale land-use constraints to estimate productivity potential on 'low-grade' lands, and (iv) comparing present-day simulations to outputs of a recently published model for the C4 biomass candidate, Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass) (Kang et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) offers sustainable bioenergy production and resilience to climate change

2015

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Biomass production on low-grade land is needed to meet future energy demands and minimize resource conflicts. This, however, requires improvements in plant water-use efficiency (WUE) that are beyond conventional C3 and C4 dedicated bioenergy crops. Here we present the first global-scale geographic information system (GIS)-based productivity model of two highly water-efficient crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) candidates: Agave tequilana and Opuntia ficus-indica. Features of these plants that translate to WUE advantages over C3 and C4 bioenergy crops include nocturnal stomatal opening, rapid rectifier-like root hydraulic conductivity responses to fluctuating soil water potential and the capacity to buffer against periods of drought. Yield simulations for the year 2070 were performed under the four representative concentration pathway (RCPs) scenarios presented in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report. Simulations on low-grade land suggest that O. ficus-indica alone has the capacity to meet 'extreme' bioenergy demand scenarios (>600 EJ yr À1) and is highly resilient to climate change (À1%). Agave tequilana is moderately impacted (À11%). These results are significant because bioenergy demand scenarios >600 EJ yr À1 could be met without significantly increasing conflicts with food production and contributing to deforestation. Both CAM candidates outperformed the C4 bioenergy crop, Panicum virgatum L.(switchgrass) in arid zones in the latitudinal range 30°S-30°N.

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“…In addition, there is still a lack of information on where, at what rates, and on what type of land cover is affected by LUC. Recently, however, a number of harmonized databases and process-based biogeochemical models have been developed that could be used to estimate the potential biomass productivity at a global scale from cropland, natural ecosystems and bioenergy crop plantations (Sitch et al, 2003;Monfreda et al, 2008;Portmann et al, 2010;Beringer et al, 2011;Poulter et al, 2011;Kang et al, 2014;You et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon implications of converting cropland to bioenergy crops or forest for climate mitigation: a global assessment

et al. 2015

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The potential for climate change mitigation by bioenergy crops and terrestrial carbon sinks has been the object of intensive research in the past decade. There has been much debate about whether energy crops used to offset fossil fuel use, or carbon sequestration in forests, would provide the best climate mitigation benefit. Most current food cropland is unlikely to be used for bioenergy, but in many regions of the world, a proportion of cropland is being abandoned, particularly marginal croplands, and some of this land is now being used for bioenergy. In this study, we assess the consequences of land-use change on cropland. We first identify areas where cropland is so productive that it may never be converted and assess the potential of the remaining cropland to mitigate climate change by identifying which alternative land use provides the best climate benefit: C 4 grass bioenergy crops, coppiced woody energy crops or allowing forest regrowth to create a carbon sink. We do not present this as a scenario of land-use change -we simply assess the best option in any given global location should a land-use change occur. To do this, we use global biomass potential studies based on food crop productivity, forest inventory data and dynamic global vegetation models to provide, for the first time, a global comparison of the climate change implications of either deploying bioenergy crops or allowing forest regeneration on current crop land, over a period of 20 years starting in the nominal year of 2000 AD. Globally, the extent of cropland on which conversion to energy crops or forest would result in a net carbon loss, and therefore likely always to remain as cropland, was estimated to be about 420.1 Mha, or 35.6% of the total cropland in Africa, 40.3% in Asia and Russia Federation, 30.8% in Europe-25, 48.4% in North America, 13.7% in South America and 58.5% in Oceania. Fast growing C 4 grasses such as Miscanthus and switch-grass cultivars are the bioenergy feedstock with the highest climate mitigation potential. Fast growing C 4 grasses such as Miscanthus and switch-grass cultivars provide the best climate mitigation option on %485 Mha of cropland worldwide with~42% of this land characterized by a terrain slope equal or above 20%. If that land-use change did occur, it would displace %58.1 Pg fossil fuel C equivalent (C eq oil). Woody energy crops such as poplar, willow and Eucalyptus species would be the best option on only 2.4% (%26.3 Mha) of current cropland, and if this land-use change occurred, it would displace %0.9 Pg C eq oil. Allowing cropland to revert to forest would be the best climate mitigation option on %17% of current cropland (%184.5 Mha), and if this land-use change occurred, it would sequester %5.8 Pg C in biomass in the 20-year-old forest and %2.7 Pg C in soil. This study is spatially explicit, so also serves to identify the regional differences in the efficacy of different climate mitigation options, informing policymakers developing regionally or nationally appropriate mitigation actions.

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Global simulation of bioenergy crop productivity: analytical framework and case study for switchgrass

Cited by 21 publications

References 42 publications

Ecosystem model parameterization and adaptation for sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design

Ecosystem model parameterization and adaptation for sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) offers sustainable bioenergy production and resilience to climate change

Carbon implications of converting cropland to bioenergy crops or forest for climate mitigation: a global assessment

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