Global sea level rise scenarios adapted to the Finnish coast

Johansson, Milla; Pellikka, Havu; Kahma, Kimmo K.; Ruosteenoja, Kimmo

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.08.007

Cited by 60 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…2 is comparable to high-end projections from Spada et al (2013) and Simpson et al (2012), the 'semi-empirical' regional projection of Perrette et al (2013), and the central projections from Kopp et al (2014) and Johansson et al (2014). The RSL projection uncertainties are The 50% median projection can be considered the best guess.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

“…There have been several national projections of regional sea level for the Netherlands (Katsman et al 2008, Norway (Simpson et al 2012), Finland (Johansson et al 2014), and the British Isles (Lowe et al 2009, Howard et al 2014. Most of these studies focus on providing a best-guess or a high-end estimate of future relative sea level rise, which does not have any probability attached (with exception of Johansson et al 2014). However, probabilistic projections enable adaptation planning with different levels of risk tolerance, but current models do not allow a quantification of the magnitude and risk associated with the marine ice sheet instability (Church et al 2013a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, we make probabilistic projections of northern European sea level rise, including the risk and potential contribution from an Antarctic marine ice sheet collapse. Perrette et al (2013) and Johansson et al (2014) have also constructed probabilistic projections of regional sea level rise by combining semi-empirical and process based projections. There is, however, no consensus on the reliability of semiempirical projections (Church et al 2013a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5

Grinsted¹,

Jevrejeva²,

Riva³

et al. 2015

Clim. Res.

112

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Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the British Isles, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea. The input to the regional sea level projection is a probabilistic projection of the major components of the global sea level budget. Local sea level rise is partly compensated by vertical land movement from glacial isostatic adjustment. We explore the uncertainties beyond the likely range provided by the IPCC, including the risk and potential rate of marine ice sheet collapse. Our median 21st century relative sea level rise projection is 0.8 m near London and Hamburg, with a relative sea level drop of 0.1 m in the Bay of Bothnia (near Oulu, Finland). Considerable uncertainties remain in both the sea level budget and in the regional expression of sea level rise. The greatest uncertainties are associated with Antarctic ice loss, and uncertainties are skewed towards higher values, with the 95th percentile being characterized by an additional 0.9 m sea level rise above median projections.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5

Grinsted¹,

Jevrejeva²,

Riva³

et al. 2015

Clim. Res.

112

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Trend analysis of the sea level data for the Hanko area was carried out for the period 1971-2010 using the Mann-Kendall and Sen non-parametric tests [46,61]. Assuming a linear trend, the sea level in the Hanko area decreased by 1.33 mm yr reported elsewhere [67,68]. It has to be considered, however, that the time series taken into account in this study started in 1971 and was rather short.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Baltic Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Recharge, Groundwater Levels, and Surface Leakage in the Hanko Aquifer in Southern Finland

Luoma

Okkonen

2014

Water

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Abstract:The impact of climate change and Baltic Sea level rise on groundwater resources in a shallow, unconfined, low-lying coastal aquifer in Hanko, southern Finland, was assessed using the UZF1 model package coupled with the three-dimensional groundwater flow model MODFLOW to simulate flow from the unsaturated zone through the aquifer. The snow and PET models were used to calculate the surface water availability for infiltration from the precipitation data used in UZF1. Infiltration rate, flow in the unsaturated zone and groundwater recharge were then simulated using UZF1. The simulation data from climate and sea level rise scenarios were compared with present data. The results indicated changes in recharge pattern during 2071-2100, with recharge occurring earlier in winter and early spring. The seasonal impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge were more significant, with surface overflow resulting in flooding during winter and early spring and drought during summer. Rising sea level would cause some parts of the aquifer to be under sea level, compromising groundwater quality due to intrusion of sea water. This, together with increased groundwater recharge, would raise groundwater levels and consequently contribute more surface leakage and potential flooding in the low-lying aquifer. OPEN ACCESSWater 2014, 6 3672

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“…Recently, using different contributors including meteorological drivers on sea level trends along the Finnish coast, Johansson et al [17] projected the sea level rise based on the CMIP3 simulations. Investigating the connections of the NAO index and the zonal component of the geostrophic wind to sea level variability, they found that 37-46% of sea level variance can be explained by the NAO index, but the zonal geostrophic wind explains 84-89% of the variance of sea level on interannual time scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on the Baltic Sea Level Rise under the RCP8.5 Scenario over the 21st Century

Karabil

2017

Climate

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This study aims to estimate the influence of atmospheric circulation modes on future Baltic Sea level rise under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate scenario for the period 2006-2100. For this estimation, the connection between the sea level variations in two selected representative locations-Stockholm and Warnemünde, and two atmospheric indices-the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS) index and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is statistically analysed. Correlations of winter means between atmospheric indices, BANOS and NAO, and tide gauges are measured as 0.85 and 0.55 for Stockholm, and 0.55 and 0.17 for Warnemünde over the period 1900-2013. Assuming that the established connection remains unchanged, the influence of atmospheric circulation modes on future Baltic Sea level rise is estimated from the projections of atmospheric indices, which are constructed from the SLP outputs of climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The main conclusion is that the contribution of those atmospheric modes to the Baltic Sea level rise is likely to remain small over the 21st century. Additionally, corresponding trend estimations of model realizations indicate the large influence of the internal climatic variability of the CMIP5 models on those future trends. One of the most important findings of this study is that anthropogenic forcing does not play a key role in the evolution of these atmospheric indices.

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Global sea level rise scenarios adapted to the Finnish coast

Cited by 60 publications

References 23 publications

Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5

Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Baltic Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Recharge, Groundwater Levels, and Surface Leakage in the Hanko Aquifer in Southern Finland

Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on the Baltic Sea Level Rise under the RCP8.5 Scenario over the 21st Century

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