Global-scale modelling of future changes in sown areas of major crops

Wu, Wenbin; Shibasaki, Ryosuke; Yang, Peng; Tan, Guoxin; Matsumura, Kazunori; Sugimoto, Kenji

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.06.012

Cited by 50 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Only four cases provided qualitative descriptions of the response. For example, Parker and Meretsky [52] and Devaraju et al [60] observed stable states, Parker and Meretsky [52] and Le et al [12] observed nonlinearity and Wu et al [55] observed fluctuations.…”

Section: Reported Effects Of Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Models representing feedbacks between land use systems and markets made up the third category. These showed the influence of land use on prices of agricultural products or land, and how land use, in turn, responded to the simulated changes in prices (e.g., [52,55,63]). The fourth category was made up of models representing feedbacks between land use and climate.…”

Section: Feedback Processes Between Land Use Systems and Related Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some of these assessments were based only on time series (e.g., [25,27,55,64,67]). Others compared a model outcome, either as time series or as a specific snapshot, against a reference (e.g., an officially adopted forecast that did not include feedbacks [54]; a different grazing regime scenario [56]; or a control simulation using a different land use scenario [60]).…”

Section: Reported Effects Of Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

How Are Feedbacks Represented in Land Models?

Chen

Bakker

Ligtenberg

et al. 2016

Land

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Land systems are characterised by many feedbacks that can result in complex system behaviour. We defined feedbacks as the two-way influences between the land use system and a related system (e.g., climate, soils and markets), both of which are encompassed by the land system. Land models that include feedbacks thus probably more accurately mimic how land systems respond to, e.g., policy or climate change. However, representing feedbacks in land models is a challenge. We reviewed articles incorporating feedbacks into land models and analysed each with predefined indicators. We found that (1) most modelled feedbacks couple land use systems with transport, soil and market systems, while only a few include feedbacks between land use and social systems or climate systems; (2) equation-based land use models that follow a top-down approach prevail; and (3) feedbacks' effects on system behaviour remain relatively unexplored. We recommend that land system modellers (1) consider feedbacks between land use systems and social systems; (2) adopt (bottom-up) approaches suited to incorporating spatial heterogeneity and better representing land use decision-making; and (3) pay more attention to nonlinear system behaviour and its implications for land system management and policy.

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Section: Reported Effects Of Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Feedback Processes Between Land Use Systems and Related Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Reported Effects Of Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

How Are Feedbacks Represented in Land Models?

Chen

Bakker

Ligtenberg

et al. 2016

Land

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show abstract

“…Changes in crop sown areas are explained as a function of the driving factors determining the crop utilities, which influence the crop choices of those involved (Rounsevell et al 2005;Wu et al 2007). In general, these driving factors include biophysical factors (e.g.…”

Section: Predictions On Future Cropping Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Irrigation Distribution Networks’ Vulnerability to Climate Change

Pérez-Urrestarazu

Smout

Díaz

et al. 2010

J. Irrig. Drain Eng.

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Climate change will lead to changed demands on existing irrigation systems. This paper presents a methodology for investigating the performance of irrigation networks under climate change, and under the emission scenarios. European agricultural policy scenarios are used to predict future cropping patterns. Irrigation water requirements are then estimated for various combinations of these climate and cropping pattern scenarios, and the performance of the irrigation network is evaluated in terms of the equity and adequacy of pressure at the outlets, using EPANET. The methodology was applied to the Fuente Palmera irrigation district, which supplies water on-demand for drip irrigation.The results show that climate change would have a major impact on network performance with the existing cropping pattern, but that expected changes in cropping pattern would reduce this impact.

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“…This means that often a GIS enables interaction with either one or many map layers. In the decision making process it is common that the basedata leading to several rational alternatives are prepared [24], at several management positions in an organizational hierarchy. Under these circumstances, a data model developed by a GIS expert following an agreed concept would require repeated computations or repeated decision modifications.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of Customized Tools for GIS Modelling to Incorporate Flexible Decision Making

Pradeep¹,

Wijesekera

2008

Engineer

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Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and associated modeling enables rational management of spatially distributed resources. GIS models once assembled with a base data set often require many repeated computations either to seek modifications to the methods or assumptions made during computations. The common GIS software needs customization to cater to such changes with minimum requirement of time. These repeated tasks range from computing an area to reclassification of overlaid layers. This paper presents the development of two simple tools. The tool for computation of area, centroid or length, enables the on-screen operation to save computed values in particular shape file. Tool developed for the classification of spatial information after overlay, demonstrates the tool's capability to easily change the classification criteria to suit a change of values or grouping based on a subsequent decision maker requirement.Both tools are developed using the Microsoft Visual Basic and linked to the GIS software -ArcGIS 9.2, incorporating the systematic planning, design and evaluation methodology. A special consideration was paid to 100% accuracy of the outputs, usefulness and user friendliness of the tools. Hence the work follows the standard requirement assessment, systematic software evaluation with appropriate user group selection. The tools demonstrate the capability through applications on actual datasets.

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Global-scale modelling of future changes in sown areas of major crops

Cited by 50 publications

References 40 publications

How Are Feedbacks Represented in Land Models?

How Are Feedbacks Represented in Land Models?

Irrigation Distribution Networks’ Vulnerability to Climate Change

Development of Customized Tools for GIS Modelling to Incorporate Flexible Decision Making

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