Global risk of deadly heat

Mora, Camilo; Dousset, B.; Caldwell, Iain R.; Powell, Farrah E.; Geronimo, Rollan C.; Bielecki, Coral R.; Counsell, Chelsie W. W.; Dietrich, Bonnie S.; Johnston, Emily T.; Louis, Leo V.; Lucas, Matthew P.; McKenzie, Marie M.; Shea, Alessandra G.; Tseng, Han; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Leon, Lisa R.; Hawkins, Ed; Trauernicht, Clay

doi:10.1038/nclimate3322

Cited by 1,052 publications

(765 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Previous studies have suggested that such hazards are typically caused by changes in the frequency and intensity rather than the mean of hydro-climatic variables including precipitation, temperature, and runoff [4,5]. Changes in these variables are projected to intensify in both magnitude and occurrence frequency in the future [6][7][8][9]. In light of those observations and projections, numerous studies have been dedicated to investigating the (often evolving) spatial and temporal characteristics of observed hydroclimatic extremes in areas prone to these extremes including the State of California [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17], with the general goal being to (1) gain insights on their past behavior so that they can be better predicted in the future; and (2) inform the development of corresponding mitigation and adaptation strategies.…”

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confidence: 99%

Changes in Extremes of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in California’s Central Valley During 1949–2010

He¹,

Russo²,

Anderson³

et al. 2017

Hydrology

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This study presents a comprehensive trend analysis of precipitation, temperature, and runoff extremes in the Central Valley of California from an operational perspective. California is prone to those extremes of which any changes could have long-lasting adverse impacts on the society, economy, and environment of the State. Available long-term operational datasets of 176 forecasting basins in six forecasting groups and inflow to 12 major water supply reservoirs are employed. A suite of nine precipitation indices and nine temperature indices derived from historical (water year 1949-2010) six-hourly precipitation and temperature data for these basins are investigated, along with nine indices based on daily unimpaired inflow to those 12 reservoirs in a slightly shorter period. Those indices include daily maximum precipitation, temperature, runoff, snowmelt, and others that are critical in informing decision making in water resources management. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test is applied with a trend-free pre-whitening procedure in identifying trends in these indices. Changes in empirical probability distributions of individual study indices in two equal sub-periods are also investigated. The results show decreasing number of cold nights, increasing number of warm nights, increasing maximum temperature, and increasing annual mean minimum temperature at about 60% of the study area. Changes in cold extremes are generally more pronounced than their counterparts in warm extremes, contributing to decreasing diurnal temperature ranges. In general, the driest and coldest Tulare forecasting group observes the most consistent changes among all six groups. Analysis of probability distributions of temperature indices in two sub-periods yields similar results. In contrast, changes in precipitation extremes are less consistent spatially and less significant in terms of change rate. Only four indices exhibit statistically significant changes in less than 10% of the study area. On the regional scale, only the American forecasting group shows significant decreasing trends in two indices including maximum six-hourly precipitation and simple daily intensity index. On the other hand, runoff exhibits strong resilience to the changes noticed in temperature and precipitation extremes. Only the most southern reservoir (Lake Isabella) shows significant earlier peak timing of snowmelt. Additional analysis on runoff indices using different trend analysis methods and different analysis periods also indicates limited changes in these runoff indices. Overall, these findings are meaningful in guiding reservoir operations and water resources planning and management practices. IntroductionClimatic and weather-induced hazards including excessive heat, flooding, and drought are often economically, environmentally, and societally disruptive [1][2][3]. Previous studies have suggested that such hazards are typically caused by changes in the frequency and intensity rather than the mean of hydro-climatic variables including precipita...

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confidence: 99%

Changes in Extremes of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in California’s Central Valley During 1949–2010

He¹,

Russo²,

Anderson³

et al. 2017

Hydrology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…In a recent analysis, 1 we found that by 2100, under current emission of greenhouse gasses, 3 of 4 people in the world will be exposed to deadly heat conditions every year, with a higher occurrence of these conditions in intertropical areas (Figure). The impacts will manifest differently with perhaps larger economic burdens of adaptation for the wealthy and higher death tolls for the poor.…”

Section: How Deadly Heat Killsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Deaths in excess of 70 000 people during the 2003 European heat wave, 10 000 people during the 2010 Russian heat wave, and high death tolls from numerous other heat waves 1 are staggering demonstrations that extreme climatic conditions are already exceeding human thermoregulatory capacity. The area of the planet experiencing heat wave conditions similar to those that have killed people is expanding and is currently inhabited by ≈30% of the world's human population.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…The area of the planet experiencing heat wave conditions similar to those that have killed people is expanding and is currently inhabited by ≈30% of the world's human population. 1 Because the planet will warm another 1°C by 2100 if we curtail greenhouse gases or 3.7°C if we do not, our choices for deadly heat are now between more of it or a lot more of it. 1 Here we carried out a systematic synthesis of deadly heat physiological pathways to make the point that the human body is sensitive to heat and that heat waves can harm anyone (even the young and healthy 2,3 ) in ways that extend beyond cardiovascular diseases.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 Because the planet will warm another 1°C by 2100 if we curtail greenhouse gases or 3.7°C if we do not, our choices for deadly heat are now between more of it or a lot more of it. 1 Here we carried out a systematic synthesis of deadly heat physiological pathways to make the point that the human body is sensitive to heat and that heat waves can harm anyone (even the young and healthy 2,3 ) in ways that extend beyond cardiovascular diseases. We suggest that only the rapid reduction of greenhouse gases paired with large economic investment in adaptation will help us escape the health risks of heat waves.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Twenty-Seven Ways a Heat Wave Can Kill You:

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Counsell

Bielecki

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Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends

et al. 2018

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Trends in short‐lived high‐temperature extremes record a different dimension of change than the extensively studied annual and seasonal mean daily temperatures. They also have important socioeconomic, environmental, and human health implications. Here, we present analysis of the highest temperature of the year for approximately 9000 stations globally, focusing on quantifying spatially explicit exceedance probabilities during the recent 50‐ and 30‐year periods. A global increase of 0.19°C per decade during the past 50 years (through 2015) accelerated to 0.25°C per decade during the last 30 years, a faster increase than in the mean annual temperature. Strong positive 30‐year trends are detected in large regions of Eurasia and Australia with rates higher than 0.60°C per decade. In cities with more than 5 million inhabitants, where most heat‐related fatalities occur, the average change is 0.33°C per decade, while some east Asia cities, Paris, Moscow, and Houston have experienced changes higher than 0.60°C per decade.

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Global risk of deadly heat

Cited by 1,052 publications

References 31 publications

Changes in Extremes of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in California’s Central Valley During 1949–2010

Changes in Extremes of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in California’s Central Valley During 1949–2010

Twenty-Seven Ways a Heat Wave Can Kill You:

Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends

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