Global Response of Clear‐Air Turbulence to Climate Change

Storer, Luke N.; Williams, Paul D.; Joshi, Manoj

doi:10.1002/2017gl074618

Cited by 54 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…In computational calculations using gridded data, numerical models rarely reach Ri = 0.25 due to the coarse resolutions, and therefore, thresholds of turbulence are model specific. To overcome this, Williams (2017) and Storer et al (2017) chose thresholds based on the distribution of turbulence in the atmosphere. For example, they assume that severe turbulence is found in 0.01% of the atmosphere, and therefore, they take the top 0.01% (99.9-100%) of the probability distribution to be severe turbulence.…”

Section: Clear-air Turbulencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have reported that climate change will act to increase clear-air turbulence in the future, according to climate model simulations (Williams and Joshi 2013;Williams 2017;Storer et al 2017). The first study to look at this (Williams and Joshi 2013) focused on north Atlantic moderate-or-greater turbulence and showed that it would increase in frequency with climate change by around 40-170%.…”

Section: Climatology and Response To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Williams (2017) then furthered the study to see how climate change might influence turbulence in five strength categories from light to severe, finding that all would increase in frequency with climate change. Storer et al (2017) then extended the work further to see how climate change will impact CAT globally, through all four seasons, and also at two flight levels in eight geographic regions. They found that CAT will increase globally in all four seasons.…”

Section: Climatology and Response To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…They selected multiple turbulence two-tailed t test. From Storer et al (2017) diagnostics and then used PIlot REPorts (PIREPS) to understand the diagnostics' performances. A weighting system can then be added depending on the skill of each diagnostic to produce the best overall forecast possible.…”

Section: Clear-air Turbulencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These figures are similar to those of Sharman et al (2006) and, again, may underestimate the real statistics of turbulence injuries. These values could also be higher in the future, as climate change is likely to increase the frequency of turbulence around the world, particularly in the mid-latitudes (Williams and Joshi 2013;Williams 2017;Storer et al 2017). The cost of turbulence to the aviation industry is significant and comes from many sources, one of which is preventing aircraft from flying on the optimum route.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change

Storer

Williams

Gill

2018

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Abstract-Atmospheric turbulence is a major hazard in the aviation industry and can cause injuries to passengers and crew. Understanding the physical and dynamical generation mechanisms of turbulence aids with the development of new forecasting algorithms and, therefore, reduces the impact that it has on the aviation industry. The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviationaffecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed-ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry-to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future.

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Section: Clear-air Turbulencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climatology and Response To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climatology and Response To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Clear-air Turbulencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change

Storer

Williams

Gill

2018

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades

Williams

Alexander

Barnes

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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This paper synthesizes and summarizes atmospheric variability on time scales from seconds to decades through a phenomenological census. We focus mainly on unforced variability in the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere. In addition to atmosphere-only modes, our scope also includes coupled modes, in which the atmosphere interacts with the other components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. The topics covered include turbulence on time scales of seconds and minutes, gravity waves on time scales of hours, weather systems on time scales of days, atmospheric blocking on time scales of weeks, the Madden-Julian Oscillation on time scales of months, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on time scales of years, and the North Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic, Pacific Decadal, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations on time scales of decades. The paper serves as an introduction to a special collection of Geophysical Research Letters on atmospheric variability. We hope that both this paper and the collection will serve as a useful resource for the atmospheric science community and will act as inspiration for setting future research directions. the atmosphere interacts with the other components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. Given these interactions, and the importance of the atmosphere for weather and climate, our intended audience is the entire Geophysical Research Letters readership. Our aim is to provide an authoritative, concise, and accessible point of reference for the most important modes of atmospheric variability. This Commentary serves as an introductory foreword to a virtual special collection of Geophysical Research Letters on atmospheric variability. To initiate the collection, we have identified some of the most influential and definitive papers to have been published in this journal in recent years. Our hope and expectation is that this will be a living collection, which will grow over time whenever seminal new papers are published. The contents of the Commentary are ordered in terms of increasing time scale, from seconds and minutes (section 2), to hours (section 3), days (section 4), weeks (section 5), months (section 6), years (section 7), and decades (section 8). We note at the outset, however, that the time scales of many atmospheric phenomena are not unambiguously defined. For example, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (section 6) is monitored and WILLIAMS ET AL.

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Climatology of Clear-Air Turbulence in Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere using ERA5 reanalysis data

Lee

Kim

Sharman

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Spatial and temporal distributions of Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) in the Northern Hemisphere were investigated using 41 years (1979 -2019) of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) data. We used two groups of CAT diagnostics to determine occurrence frequencies: 1) commonly used empirical turbulence indices (TI1, TI2, and TI3) and their components [vertical wind shear (VWS), deformation, divergence, and divergence tendency], and 2) theoretical instability indicators Richardson number (Ri), potential vorticity (PV), and Brunt-Vӓisӓlӓ frequency. The empirical indices showed high frequencies of MOG-level CAT potential over the East Asian, Eastern Pacific, and Northwest Atlantic regions in winter. Over East Asia, the entrance region of the strong upper-level jets, showed the highest frequencies in TI1, TI2, and TI3 mainly due to strong VWS. The Eastern Pacific and Northwestern Atlantic areas near the exit region of the jet had relatively high frequencies of these and also Ri. PV frequency was high on the southern side of the jet primarily due to negative relative vorticity. Long-term increasing trends of MOG-level CAT potential also appeared in those three regions mainly due to the warming in lower latitudes. The most significant increasing trend was found over East Asia, due to the strengthening of the East Asian jet and VWS due to the strong meridional temperature gradients in the mid-troposphere induced by warming in the tropics and cooling in eastern Eurasia. These trends over East Asia are expected to be of importance to efficient aviation operations across the northwestern Pacific Ocean.

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Global Response of Clear‐Air Turbulence to Climate Change

Cited by 54 publications

References 33 publications

Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change

Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change

A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades

Climatology of Clear-Air Turbulence in Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere using ERA5 reanalysis data

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