Global, regional, and national thyroid cancer age-period-cohort modeling and Bayesian predictive modeling studies: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

Chen, Jingjing; Wang, Chong; Shao, Beibei

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e22490

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) query tool ( https://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool ) was used to extract the following variables from the database: the number and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incident cases, prevalent cases, at the global, regional, and national levels. 14 These variables can help us analyze the disease burden across different regions and countries. Geographically, the 204 GBD countries and territories were divided into 22 regions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global, Regional, and National Incidence Trend Analysis of Malignant Skin Melanoma Between 1990 and 2019, and Projections Until 2034

Yuan,

Li,

2024

Cancer Control

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Background The goal of this study was to evaluate the global burden of malignant skin melanoma (MSM) from 1990 to 2019 using MSM-related data from the Global Burden of Disease study. Methods The incidences’ relationships with the social-demographic index (SDI) and human developmental index (HDI) were investigated. To determine significant changes in incidence trends, the joinpoint regression model was used. To demonstrate trends in MSM mortality rates, an Age-Period-Cohort framework was conducted. For the projection of new cases and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of MSM incidence to 2034, the Nordpred method was used. Results In 2019, the ASR incidence per 100, 000 people for MSM was 3.6 (95% UI, 2.6–4.2). MSM prevalence increased in most countries between 1990 and 2019 (average annual percentage change >0). HDI and annual percentage change (APC) (ρ = .63, P < .001), as well as SDI and ASR, had a positive correlation. The total MSM mortality rate declined globally, with an APC of −.61%. Likewise, the mortality rate for the age group of people with ages <77.5 years declined. Predictive analysis demonstrated a declining trend in ASR incidence and a growing number of MSM. Conclusion There are significant differences in ASR incidence among regions and countries. Despite decreases in ASR incidence and fatality, MSM remains one of the leading sources of cancer mortality and morbidity globally. MSM necessitates more primary prevention measures and screening in high-risk areas.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global, Regional, and National Incidence Trend Analysis of Malignant Skin Melanoma Between 1990 and 2019, and Projections Until 2034

Yuan,

Li,

2024

Cancer Control

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“…Multiple epidemiological studies have shown that lower SDI regions are associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer burden [27]. Previous research indicates that iodine deficiency [28] and insufficient protection against ionizing radiation [29] in middle and low SDI regions elevate thyroid cancer risk, although the exact biological mechanisms require further investigation. This may also contribute to the rising disease burden of thyroid cancer from 2020 to 2030.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing and projecting the global burden of thyroid cancer, 1990–2030: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study

Zhao,

Chen,

et al. 2024

J Glob Health

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BackgroundThis study aims to assess the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2030.Methods Our study analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data from 204 countries, spanning 1990-2019. It focused on age-standardised thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using the sociodemographic index (SDI) for assessing socioeconomic levels. Generalised additive models (GAMs) projected thyroid cancer trends for 2020-2030. ResultsThe global burden of thyroid cancer is predicted to increase significantly from 1990 to 2030. The number of thyroid cancer incidence cases is projected to rise from 233 846.64 in 2019 to 305 078.08 by 2030, representing an approximate 30.46% increase. The ASIR (age-standardised incidence rate) is expected to continue its upward trend (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = 0.83). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) for thyroid cancer is projected to decline in both genders, more notably in women (EAPC = −0.34) compared to men (EAPC = −0.17). The burden of disease escalates with advancing age, with significant regional disparities. Regions with lower SDI, particularly in South Asia, are anticipated to witness substantial increases in thyroid cancer incidence from 2020 to 2030. The overall disease burden is expected to rise, especially in countries with low to middle SDI, reflecting broader socio-economic and health care shifts. ConclusionsThis study highlights significant regional and gender-specific variations in thyroid cancer, with notable increases in incidence rates, particularly in areas like South Asia. These trends suggest improvements in diagnostic capabilities and the influence of socio-economic factors. Additionally, the observed decline in mortality rates across various regions reflects advancements in thyroid cancer management. The findings underline the critical importance of regionally tailored prevention strategies, robust cancer registries, and public health initiatives to address the evolving landscape of thyroid cancer and mitigate health disparities globally.

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“…The global age-standardized incidence rates of TC in 2020 were found to reached 3.1 per 100,000 person-years in males and 10.1 per 100,000 person-years in females. However, the mortality rates have remained to be 0.5 per 100,000 person-years worldwide over the past four decades ( 10 , 11 ). GLOBOCAN 2020 database, compiled by the World Health Organization, has speculated that TC would become the second most prevalent cancer in women and the ninth in men by 2030, severely aggravate the burden of economic and health for society.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between vitamin D status and thyroid cancer: a meta-analysis

Hu,

Xue,

Ren

et al. 2024

Front. Nutr.

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BackgroundCumulative evidence has suggested that vitamin D deficiency is related with an increased susceptibility to various types of cancers. However, the association between vitamin D and thyroid cancer (TC) has remained to be unknown. Thus, there has been an urgent need for a meta-analysis to summarize existing evidence on vitamin D levels and the risk of TC.ObjectiveThis meta-analysis aimed to figure out the association between vitamin D level and the risk of TC.MethodsA systematic search was performed for eligible articles on the association between vitamin D and TC based on PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane, and ClinicalTrials.gov. Outcomes were the vitamin D level of cases with TC and the incidence of vitamin D deficiency in cases with TC comparing with the controls. The effect measures included standardized mean difference (SMD), ratio of means (RoM), and odds ratio (OR). A dose-response meta-analysis was performed to assess the correlation between vitamin D level and the risk of TC. Subgroup analyses and meta-regressions were conducted to explore the source of heterogeneity. And publication bias was evaluated through Begg's and Egger's tests.ResultsResults of the meta-analysis revealed lower levels of vitamin D in TC cases comparing with those in control [SMD = −0.25, 95% CI: (−0.38, −0.12); RoM = 0.87, 95% CI: (0.81, 0.94)] and the levels of 1,25 (OH)D in cases with TC were also lower than controls [SMD = −0.49, 95% CI: (−0.80, −0.19); RoM = 0.90, 95% CI: (0.85, 0.96)]. And vitamin D deficiency was associated with the increased risk of TC [OR = 1.49, 95% CI: (1.23, 1.80)]. Additionally, results from the dose-response meta-analysis showed that there is a 6% increase in the risk of TC for each 10 ng/ml decrease in 25 (OH)D levels [OR = 0.94; 95% CI: (0.89, 0.99)].ConclusionsIndividuals with TC had lower levels of vitamin D compared to controls, and vitamin D deficiency was correlated with an increase risk of TC.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=504417, identifier: CRD42024504417.

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Global, regional, and national thyroid cancer age-period-cohort modeling and Bayesian predictive modeling studies: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

Cited by 3 publications

References 30 publications

Global, Regional, and National Incidence Trend Analysis of Malignant Skin Melanoma Between 1990 and 2019, and Projections Until 2034

Global, Regional, and National Incidence Trend Analysis of Malignant Skin Melanoma Between 1990 and 2019, and Projections Until 2034

Assessing and projecting the global burden of thyroid cancer, 1990–2030: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study

Association between vitamin D status and thyroid cancer: a meta-analysis

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