Global, regional and national temporal trends in prevalence for musculoskeletal disorders in women of childbearing age, 1990–2019: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract

ObjectivesTo provide an overview and in-depth analysis of temporal trends in prevalence of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in women of childbearing age (WCBA) at global, regional and national levels over the last 30 years, with a special focus on their associations with age, period and birth cohort.MethodsEstimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. An age-period-cohort model was adopted to estimate the overall annual percentage change of prevalence (net drift, % per year), annual percentage change of prevalence within each age group (local drift, % per year), fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period deviations (age effects) and period/cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) from 1990 to 2019.ResultsIn 2019, the global number of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was 354.57 million (95% UI: 322.64 to 387.68). Fifty countries had at least one million prevalence, with India, China, the USA, Indonesia and Brazil being the highest accounting for 51.03% of global prevalence. From 1990 to 2019, a globalnet driftof MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was −0.06% (95% CI: −0.07% to −0.05%) per year, ranging from −0.09% (95% CI: −0.10% to −0.07%) in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) region to 0.10% (95% CI: 0.08% to 0.12%) in high-middle SDI region, with 138 countries presenting increasing trends, 24 presenting decreasing trends and 42 presenting relatively flat trends. As reflected bylocal drift, higher SDI regions had more age groups showing rising prevalence whereas lower SDI regions had more declining prevalence. Globally, an increasing occurrence of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA beyond adolescent and towards the adult stage has been prominent. Age effects illustrated similar patterns across different SDI regions, with risk increasing with age. High SDI region showed generally lower period risks over time, whereas others showed more unfavourable period risks. High, high-middle and middle SDI regions presented unfavourable prevalence deteriorations, whereas others presented favourable prevalence improvements in successively birth cohorts.ConclusionsAlthough a favourable overall temporal trend (net drift) of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was observed over the last 30 years globally, there were 138 countries showing unfavourable rising trends, coupled with deteriorations in period/cohort risks in many countries, collectively raising concerns about timely realisation of the Targets of Sustainable Development Goal. Improvements in the MSK disorders-related prevention, management and treatment programmes in WCBA could decline the relative risk for successively younger birth cohorts and for all age groups over period progressing.

Examining the impact of chronic diseases on activities of daily living of middle-aged and older adults aged 45 years and above in China: a nationally representative cohort study

“…By examining subgroups of middle-aged and older persons, the research revealed that only the middle-aged group suffered from heart disease and that only the middle-aged and young older adult groups were at higher risk of developing impaired ADL. This clue indicates that younger people with heart disease and arthritis are more likely to have impaired ADL, and previous studies have also reached similar conclusions ( 32 , 33 ). In the future, the preventive intervention of heart disease and arthritis among the younger population should be further strengthened to reduce the incidence of the diseases in order to delay and control ADL impairment.…”

Global, regional, and national burdens of hypertensive heart disease from 1990 to 2019 ：A multilevel analysis based on the global burden of Disease Study 2019

“…HHD prevalence and mortality were estimated using extensive data representing broad population segments. These data were derived from literature reviews and corroborated through research collaborations encompassing published scientific reports on registries and cohorts, data from cohort studies and registries, administrative health data, and population surveys [ 19 ]. DisMod-MR software V2.1 and meta-regression-Bayesian, regularized, trimmed (MR-BRT) software were used to generate consistent disease estimates.…”

Global, regional and national temporal trends in prevalence for cardiovascular diseases in women of childbearing age, from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis

“…The APC model estimated the temporal trends for overall prevalence and prevalence within each age group [ 22 ]. The former is denoted as the annual percentage change in prevalence or the net drift of prevalence (annual %), determined based on trends over the period and across continuous birth cohorts.…”

“…The former is denoted as the annual percentage change in prevalence or the net drift of prevalence (annual %), determined based on trends over the period and across continuous birth cohorts. The latter is expressed as the annual percentage change in age-specific prevalence or the local drift of prevalence (annual %) [ 22 , 23 ]. Even if the drift (annual %) is minimal, it could culminate in substantial variations in fitting rates over a span of 30 years.…”

“…The Wald χ2 test was utilized to assess the significance of the annual percentage change. Furthermore, in the APC model, age effects are depicted by fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period deviations within a given birth cohort [ 22 , 24 , 25 ]. The data was cleaned using the “dplyr,” “tidyr,” and “purr” package, the“ggplot2”package was utilized for data visualization and“epitools” package to calculate age-standardized prevalence rate.…”