Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study

Unwin, H. Juliette T.; Hillis, Susan D.; Cluver, Lucie; Flaxman, Seth; Goldman, Philip; Butchart, Alexander; Bachman, Gretchen; Rawlings, Laura B.; Donnelly, Christl A.; Ratmann, Oliver; Green, Phil; Nelson, Charles A.; Blenkinsop, Alexandra; Bhatt, Samir; Desmond, Chris; Villaveces, Andrés; Sherr, Lorraine

doi:10.1016/s2352-4642(22)00005-0

Cited by 56 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Using previous methodology for combining age-specific death and fertility rates, 4,5 we update our estimates of parent and caregiver loss to present excess mortality-derived estimates for every reporting country, using data from the World Health Organization (WHO), The Economist, and The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). 1-3,6 We replace COVID-19 deaths in previous logistic models with the maximum of excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths, for two periods: January 1, 2020, through December 31, 2021, and January 1, 2020, through May 1, 2022 (Supplementary Methods (SM)).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We adapt previously published methods 4,5 to estimate orphanhood and caregiver loss from excess death estimates made by The Economist 2 , The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) 1 , and the World Health Organization (WHO). 3 We consider three different categories: orphanhood, primary caregiver loss and primary and/or secondary caregiver loss.…”

Section: Supplementary Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We defined orphanhood using UNICEFs definition of the loss of one or more parents; primary caregiver death as death of parents or custodial coresident grandparents (providing care for children in the absence of parents); and secondary caregiver death as death of coresident grandparents or other older kin (providing care through involvement or resources). 4,5…”

Section: Supplementary Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4,5 Parent or caregiver death is permanent; consequences for children can be devastating and enduring, including institutionalization, abuse, traumatic grief, mental health problems, adolescent pregnancy, poor educational outcomes, and chronic and infectious diseases. 4,5 Global totals and country comparisons were previously hampered by inconsistencies in COVID-19 testing and incomplete death reporting. The new orphanhood estimates we derive here based on excess mortality provide a comprehensive measure of the pandemic’s long-term impact on orphanhood and caregiver loss.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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10.4 Million Children Affected by COVID-19-associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death: An Imperative for Action

Hillis

N’konzi

Msemburi

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The new WHO estimates for COVID-19 excess deaths allow us to generate updated and more accurate models of COVID-19 associated orphanhood and caregiver loss. Using methodology established in prior studies, we combine age-specific fertility and excess death estimates from January 2020 to May 2022. We find 10.4 million children have lost a parent or caregiver due to COVID-associated excess deaths, and 7.5 million children have experienced COVID-associated orphanhood. Without supportive intervention, caregiver loss can bring severe risks of poverty, school dropout, sexual exploitation, and mental health distress. It is essential that evidence-based care for these children is integrated into all national response plans as a caring action to protect children from immediate and long-term harms of COVID-19.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Supplementary Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Supplementary Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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10.4 Million Children Affected by COVID-19-associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death: An Imperative for Action

Hillis

N’konzi

Msemburi

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Emergencies increase family violence and mental health distress 6. More than seven million children have lost a parent or main care giver to covid-19,7 and the global pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities and risks for childhood adversity 8. Parenting in war is violently undermined: in chaos and emergency, families face extreme, unanticipated challenges.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ukraine’s children: use evidence to support child protection in emergencies

Cluver

Perks

Rakotomalala

et al. 2022

BMJ

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Implications for School Practices of the Association of Child Bereavement With School Grades

Sandler

2022

JAMA Netw Open

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The study by Liu et al 1 is of particular interest at this time when the world is experiencing an upsurge of child bereavement from the death of a parent due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2 The questions of highest scientific and public health interest are as follows: What is the impact of parental death on children? What potentially malleable factors make a difference in the healthy development (ie, resilience) of bereaved children? What can be done to promote the resilience of bereaved children?This study 1 strengthens the evidence base for an association between death of a parent and lower school grades by a very clever use of sibling data to control for the influence of family environment, as well as controlling for other potential confounders. In addition, the fact that the findings are from a population-based longitudinal cohort study heightens the importance of the study. However, the broader implications for understanding the outcomes of child bereavement globally are limited because the study reflects data from a single country that has a well-developed safety net. More studies are needed to assess the outcomes of child bereavement from the death of a Open Access. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the CC-BY License.

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Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study

Cited by 56 publications

References 22 publications

10.4 Million Children Affected by COVID-19-associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death: An Imperative for Action

10.4 Million Children Affected by COVID-19-associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death: An Imperative for Action

Ukraine’s children: use evidence to support child protection in emergencies

Implications for School Practices of the Association of Child Bereavement With School Grades

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