Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel Co2 Emissions

Boden, Thomas A.; Marland, Gregg; Andres, R. J.

doi:10.3334/cdiac/00001_2010

Cited by 413 publications

(520 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

509

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Because NEE is monthly, covariance between NEE and transport at diurnal [Denning et al, 1996] and synoptic time scales causing monthly CO 2 gradients, is not accounted for. The air-sea CO 2 flux prescribed to LMDZ4 is from the climatology Takahashi et al [2009], and fossil fuel emission are from EDGARv4 (http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.php#) adjusted by Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center annual country totals [Boden et al, 2012]. These emissions are assumed to have no seasonality and are all injected in the first model layer (thickness 70 m).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO₂ fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models

Peng

Ciais

Chevallier

et al. 2015

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We evaluated the seasonality of CO 2 fluxes simulated by nine terrestrial ecosystem models of the TRENDY project against (1) the seasonal cycle of gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measured at flux tower sites over different biomes, (2) gridded monthly Model Tree Ensembles-estimated GPP (MTE-GPP) and MTE-NEE obtained by interpolating many flux tower measurements with a machine-learning algorithm, (3) atmospheric CO 2 mole fraction measurements at surface sites, and (4) CO 2 total columns (X CO2 ) measurements from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). For comparison with atmospheric CO 2 measurements, the LMDZ4 transport model was run with time-varying CO 2 fluxes of each model as surface boundary conditions. Seven out of the nine models overestimate the seasonal amplitude of GPP and produce a too early start in spring at most flux sites. Despite their positive bias for GPP, the nine models underestimate NEE at most flux sites and in the Northern Hemisphere compared with MTE-NEE. Comparison with surface atmospheric CO 2 measurements confirms that most models underestimate the seasonal amplitude of NEE in the Northern Hemisphere (except CLM4C and SDGVM). Comparison with TCCON data also shows that the seasonal amplitude of X CO2 is underestimated by more than 10% for seven out of the nine models (except for CLM4C and SDGVM) and that the MTE-NEE product is closer to the TCCON data using LMDZ4. From CO 2 columns measured routinely at 10 TCCON sites, the constrained amplitude of NEE over the Northern Hemisphere is of 1.6 ± 0.4 gC m À2 d À1 , which translates into a net CO 2 uptake during the carbon uptake period in the Northern Hemisphere of 7.9 ± 2.0 PgC yr À1 .

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO₂ fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models

Peng

Ciais

Chevallier

et al. 2015

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1002/2015GB005086 37-40% of total carbon emissions over the 20th century (266 PgC from fossil fuel combustion and cement production [Boden et al, 2013]). Most of the historical total LULUC emissions were direct emissions (Table 4 and Figures 4a and 5a).…”

Section: Carbon Fluxes From Luluc During the 20th Century (With Nitromentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO₂ emissions from future land use and land use change

Meiyappan

House

2015

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), few Earth System Models included the effect of nitrogen limitation, a key process limiting forest regrowth. Few included forest management (wood harvest). We estimate the impacts of nitrogen limitation on the CO 2 emissions from land use and land use change (LULUC), including wood harvest, for the period 1900-2100. We use a land surface model that includes a fully coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle and accounts for forest regrowth processes following agricultural abandonment and wood harvest. Future projections are based on the four Representation Concentration Pathways used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and we account for uncertainty in future climate for each scenario based on ensembles of climate model outputs. Results show that excluding nitrogen limitation will underestimate global LULUC emissions by 34-52 PgC (20-30%) during the 20th century (range across three different historical LULUC reconstructions) and by 128-187 PgC (90-150%) during the 21st century (range across the four IPCC scenarios). The full range for estimated LULUC emissions during the 21st century including climate model uncertainty is 91 to 227 PgC (with nitrogen limitation included). The underestimation increases with time because (1) projected annual wood harvest rates from forests summed over the 21st century are 380-1080% higher compared to those of the 20th century, resulting in more regrowing secondary forests; (2) nitrogen limitation reduces the CO 2 fertilization effect on net primary production of regrowing secondary forests following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment; and (3) nitrogen limitation effect is aggravated by the gradual loss of soil nitrogen from LULUC disturbance. Our study implies that (1) nitrogen limitation of CO 2 uptake is substantial and sensitive to nitrogen inputs; (2) if LULUC emissions are larger than previously estimated in studies without nitrogen limitation, then meeting the same climate mitigation target would require an equivalent additional reduction of fossil fuel emissions; (3) the effectiveness of land-based mitigation strategies will critically depend on the interactions between nutrient limitations and secondary forests resulting from LULUC; and (4) it is important for terrestrial biosphere models to consider nitrogen constraint in estimates of the strength of future land carbon uptake.

show abstract

“…harmonization and creation of the 2030 pathways. Historical data for national emissions is taken from PRIMAP-hist v1.1 (Gütschow et al, 2016(Gütschow et al, , 2017, and international transport CO 2 data are taken from CDIAC 2017 (Boden et al, 2017).…”

Section: Cumulative Emissions Under Different Extension Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For national emissions we use the PRIMAP-hist time series version 1.1 (Gütschow et al, 2016(Gütschow et al, , 2017. We sum the national time series to the RC5 regions and complement with CO 2 from international transport from the CDIAC 2017 release (Boden et al, 2017). We have no data source for non-CO 2 emissions from international transport from which emissions can be attributed to countries or regions.…”

Section: Historical Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Extending Near‐Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the Paris Agreement countries have agreed to act together to hold global warming well below 2°C over preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. To assess if the world is on track to meet this long‐term temperature goal, countries' pledged emissions reductions (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) need to be analyzed for their implied warming. Several research groups and nongovernmental organizations have estimated this warming and arrived at very different results but have invariably concluded that the current pledges are inadequate to hold warming below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C. In this paper we analyze different methods to estimate 2100 global mean temperature rise implied by countries' NDCs, which often only specify commitments until 2030. We present different methods to extend near‐term emissions pathways that have been developed by the authors or used by different research groups and nongovernmental organizations to estimate 21st century warming consequences of Paris Agreement commitments. The abilities of these methods to project both low and high warming scenarios in line with the scenario literature is assessed. We find that the simpler methods are not suitable for temperature projections while more complex methods can produce results consistent with the energy and economic scenario literature. We further find that some methods can have a strong high or low temperature bias depending on parameter choices. The choice of methods to evaluate the consistency of aggregated NDC commitments is very important for reviewing progress toward the Paris Agreement's long‐term temperature goal.

show abstract

Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel Co2 Emissions

Cited by 413 publications

References 0 publications

Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO₂ fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models

Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO₂ fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models

Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO₂ emissions from future land use and land use change

Extending Near‐Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel Co2 Emissions

Cited by 413 publications

References 0 publications

Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO2 fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models

Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO2 fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models

Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO2 emissions from future land use and land use change

Extending Near‐Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO₂ fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models

Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO₂ fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models

Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO₂ emissions from future land use and land use change