Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models: validation, projected changes, and methodological challenges

Muis, Sanne; Aerts, Jeroen; Antolínez, José A. Á.; Dullaart, Job; Duong, Trang Minh; Erikson, Li H.; Haarmsa, Rein; Apecechea, Maialen Irazoqui; Mengel, Matthias; Bars, Dewi Le; O’Neill, Andrea C.; Ranasinghe, Roshanka; Roberts, Malcolm; Verlaan, Martin; Ward, Philip J.; Yan, Kun

doi:10.1002/essoar.10511919.1

Cited by 12 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…As shown in Figure S3 in Supporting Information S1, the distributions show some small differences between these two periods (Figures S3a–S3m in Supporting Information S1), especially when SLR leads to more threshold exceedances (Figures S3c–S3m in Supporting Information S1). For other sites without sufficient observed data to estimate distribution differences, we use simulated total water levels from C3SCDS (Muis et al., 2022), which provides total water levels from 1950 to 2018 along the China coastline. The distribution differences (1979–1997 vs. 1950–2018) are small in Lianyungang (Figure S3 in Supporting Information S1) and other sites (not shown).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Projections of SLR for tidal gauges along the China coastline are obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) projection tool (Fox‐Kemper et al., 2021; Garner et al., 2021). Simulated water levels from 1950 to 2018 are obtained from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), which provides hourly water levels driven by storm surges, tides, and MSL derived with the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) (Muis et al., 2022).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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High‐Tide Flooding Along the China Coastline: Past and Future

Wahl

Fang

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐Tide Flooding Along the China Coastline: Past and Future

Wahl

Fang

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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“…It performs best in regions with large variability in sea level, that is, in regions with a wide and shallow continental shelf that have high storm surges, and it performs more poorly in regions near the Equator, where storm surges are low. Model performance is higher for 10 min series than for annual maxima, with correlation coefficients above 0.9 and RMSE smaller than 0.1 (Muis et al, 2022). For further details, see Muis et al (2020) and Wang et al (2021).…”

Section: Hydrodynamic Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial

et al. 2023

Self Cite

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Abstract. The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125 ka) is a period of interest for climate research as it is the most recent period of the Earth's history when the boreal climate was warmer than at present. Previous research, based on models and geological evidence, suggests that the LIG may have featured enhanced patterns of ocean storminess, but this remains hotly debated. Here, we apply state-of-the-art climate and hydrodynamic modeling to simulate changes in sea level extremes caused by storm surges, under LIG and pre-industrial climate forcings. Significantly higher seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along northern Australia, the Indonesian archipelago, much of northern and eastern Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, the Arabian Sea, the east coast of North America, and islands of the Pacific Ocean and of the Caribbean. Lower seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along the North Sea, the Bay of Bengal, China, Vietnam, and parts of Central America. Most of these anomalies are associated with anomalies in seasonal sea level pressure minima and in eddy kinetic energy calculated from near-surface wind fields, and therefore seem to originate from anomalies in the meridional position and intensity of the predominant wind bands. In a qualitative comparison, LIG sea level extremes seem generally higher than those projected for future warmer climates. These results help to constrain the interpretation of coastal archives of LIG sea level indicators.

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“…Water level time series were applied at the offshore boundary of the SFINCS models. Water level time series were derived from a linear superposition of statistically corrected Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM; Muis et al, 2016Muis et al, , 2022 outputs and wave setup computed with a parameterized empirical formula (Stockdon et al, 2006) and waves from the ERA5 reanalysis (Hersbach et al, 2020) and projection time-periods (Erikson et al 2022). Both the hydrodynamic and wave models were forced with the same CMIP6 models for the climate projections.…”

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical or extratropical cyclones: what drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?

Nederhoff¹,

Leijnse²,

Parker³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Subtropical coastlines are impacted by both tropical and extratropical cyclones. While both may lead to substantial damage to coastal communities, it is difficult to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones in coastal flooding relative to that of extratropical cyclones. We conduct a large-scale flood hazard and impact assessment across the subtropical Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United States, from Virginia to Florida, including different flood hazards. The physics-based hydrodynamic modeling skillfully reproduces coastal water levels based on a comprehensive validation of tides, almost two hundred historical storms, and an in-depth hindcast of Hurricane Florence. We show that yearly flood impacts are two times as likely to be driven by extratropical than tropical cyclones. On the other hand, tropical cyclones are thirty times more likely to affect people during rarer 100-year events than extratropical cyclones and contribute to more than half of the regional flood risk. With increasing sea levels, more area will be flooded, regardless if that flooding is driven by tropical or extratropical cyclones. Most of the absolute flood risk is contained in the greater Miami metropolitan area. However, several less populous counties have the highest relative risks. The results of this study provide critical information for understanding the source and frequency of compound flooding across the Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United States.

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Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models: validation, projected changes, and methodological challenges

Cited by 12 publications

References 1 publication

High‐Tide Flooding Along the China Coastline: Past and Future

High‐Tide Flooding Along the China Coastline: Past and Future

Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial

Tropical or extratropical cyclones: what drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?

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