Global production potential of green methanol based on variable renewable electricity

Abstract

The production cost of green methanol from renewable electricity-based hydrogen and atmospheric carbon dioxide could reach market prices by 2040, making it a potential solution for defossilisation of the global chemical industry and marine transport.

CO2 conversion to CO via plasma and electrolysis: a techno-economic and energy cost analysis

“…In relation to Opex, we assumed an average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of $0.03 per kW h from onshore wind energy for both CO 2 conversion plants, based on Fasihi et al (2021) 124 and (2024), 125 for Northern Europe in 2030. This cost has the potential to be halved by 2050.…”

“…The projected reduction in LCOE, estimated at $0.015 per kW h by 2050, is expected in several regions for wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) farms. 124,125 Additionally, this low cost could be achieved before 2030 in virtually all countries located below the parallel 451N, particularly through the use of solar PV. 124,125 As expected, in scenarios where changes in selected parameters (scenarios 1-4) did not affect other parameters, the impact of each respective change depended on the contribution of the specific parameter to the total UCOP of CO. For example, a AE50% change in the cost of the CO 2 conversion equipment (scenario 1) resulted in a AE16% and AE22% change in the UCOP of CO for plasma-based and electrolysis-based plants, respectively.…”

“…124,125 Additionally, this low cost could be achieved before 2030 in virtually all countries located below the parallel 451N, particularly through the use of solar PV. 124,125 As expected, in scenarios where changes in selected parameters (scenarios 1-4) did not affect other parameters, the impact of each respective change depended on the contribution of the specific parameter to the total UCOP of CO. For example, a AE50% change in the cost of the CO 2 conversion equipment (scenario 1) resulted in a AE16% and AE22% change in the UCOP of CO for plasma-based and electrolysis-based plants, respectively. The impact was higher on the electrolysis-based plant, mainly due to the significant contribution of Capex and fixed costs of the CO 2 conversion section in the base case.…”

“…Although the LCOE for users owning renewable energy plants has decreased in recent decades, 124,125 market dynamics can affect these costs, particularly for electricity purchased through third-party suppliers. Regarding equipment costs, the concern lies in the uncertainty surrounding the actual cost of CO 2 conversion systems, especially for CO 2 electrolysers, where costs between $920 and $20 000 per m 2 have been reported.…”