Global polycrisis: The causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

Lawrence, Michael S.; Homer‐Dixon, Thomas; Janzwood, Scott; Rockström, Johan; Renn, Ortwin; Donges, Jonathan F.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4483556

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Subsequently, the concept is used in relation to the multiple crises confronting the European Union after the GFC, when the European Union was facing what some have described as both a sovereign debt crisis and a migration crisis. Lawrence et al (2022) develop the concept further. In their work, they define a crisis as "a sudden (nonlinear) event or series of events that significantly harm, in a relatively short period of time, the well-being of a large number of people."…”

Section: Polycrisis and Compound Risksmentioning

confidence: 96%

Crisis risk and risk management

Stulz

2023

Euro Fin Management

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We assess the state of knowledge about crisis risk and its implications for risk management. Data that became available after the global financial crisis show that some types of crises are predictable when accounting for interactions between risks. However, other types of crises do not seem predictable. There is no evidence that the frequency of economic and financial crises is increasing. While data show that an economic crisis is more likely following a political crisis, there is no comparable evidence for climate events. Strategies that increase firm operational and financial flexibility reduce the adverse impact of crises on firms.

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Section: Polycrisis and Compound Risksmentioning

confidence: 96%

Crisis risk and risk management

Stulz

2023

Euro Fin Management

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“…In the 2010s, European scholars and leaders (most notably then-President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker) adopted the term to label the simultaneous migration, financial, and Brexit crises afflicting Europe (Juncker, 2018;Zeitlin et al, 2019). And in the months following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Columbia University's Adam Tooze and researchers at the Cascade Institute used 'polycrisis' to characterize the complex interactions between the effects of the war, climate change, and the pandemic (Lawrence et al, 2022;Tooze, 2022).…”

Section: What Is a (Global) Polycrisis?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this spirit, we define a 'global polycrisis' as the causal entanglement of crises in multiple global systems in ways that significantly degrade humanity's prospects (Lawrence et al, 2022). We unpack this definition by first defining 'crisis', then by identifying interactions among crises that constitute a 'global polycrisis', and finally by distinguishing this latter term from related concepts of 'systemic risk', 'catastrophic risk', and 'existential risk'.…”

Section: What Is a (Global) Polycrisis?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

Lawrence,

Homer-Dixon,

Janzwood

et al. 2024

Glob. Sustain.

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Multiple global crisesincluding the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukraine have recently linked together in ways that are significant in scope, devastating in effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars and policymakers characterize the situation as a 'polycrisis'. Yet this neologism remains poorly defined. We provide the concept with a substantive definition, highlight its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and develop a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world's crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fastmoving trigger events combine with slow-moving stresses to push a global system out of its established equilibrium and into a volatile and harmful state of disequilibrium. We then identify three causal pathwayscommon stresses, domino effects, and inter-systemic feedbacksthat can connect multiple global systems to produce synchronized crises. Drawing on current examples, we show that the polycrisis concept is a valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, and opening avenues for future research. Non-technical summary. The term 'polycrisis' appears with growing frequently to capture the interconnections between global crises, but the word lacks substantive content. In this article, we convert it from an empty buzzword into a conceptual framework and research program that enables us to better understand the causal linkages between contemporary crises. We draw upon the intersection of climate change, the covid-19 pandemic, and Russia's war in Ukraine to illustrate these causal interconnections and explore key features of the world's present polycrisis. Technical summary. Multiple global crisesincluding the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukrainehave recently linked together in ways that are significant in scope, devastating in effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars and policymakers characterize the situation as a 'polycrisis'. Yet this neologism remains poorly defined. We provide the concept with a substantive definition, highlight its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and develop a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world's crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combines with slow-moving stresses to push a global system out of its established equilibrium and into a volatile and harmful state of disequilibrium. We then identify three causal pathwayscommon stresses, domino effects, and inter-systemic feedbacksthat can connect multiple global systems to produce synchronized crises. Drawing on current examples, we show that the polycrisis concept is a valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, and opening avenues for future research. Social media summary. No longer a mere buzzword, the 'polycrisis' concept highlights causal interactions among crises to help navigate a tumu...

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“…The persistent challenges, often referred to as the "polycrisis," entail simultaneous stress on various systems. [78] This encompasses issues such as planetary boundaries, [26] the destabilization of political landscapes, both within nations and in international relations, and their impact on the food system [79] and possible interactions between global disruptive events. [80] The more severe this polycrisis becomes, the greater the challenge will be to adapt to a worldwide catastrophic infrastructure breakdown as outlined here, since addressing sudden and global crises requires global cooperation to be effective.…”

Section: General Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Moersdorf,

Rivers,

Denkenberger

et al. 2023

Global Challenges

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Modern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large‐scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber‐attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop‐specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%–48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system.

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Global polycrisis: The causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

Cited by 15 publications

References 23 publications

Crisis risk and risk management

Crisis risk and risk management

Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

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