Global patterns and trends in multiple myeloma incidence: Age, period and birth cohort analysis

Abstract

Background The incidence of multiple myeloma (MM) are increasing in some countries. This study aimed to examine global differences in MM incidence and temporal trends from 1978 to 2012, In addition, the effect of birth cohort was analyzed. Patients and methods: The incidence of MM in 43 countries was extracted from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database (CI5), Joinpoint regression and age - period - cohort models were applied. Results From 2008 to 2012, the incidence rates of MM were generally 1- to 2-fold higher in males than in females, except for Bahrain. Rates were highest in North America, Oceania and Northern Europe. Twenty countries showed significant increasing trends, except for Costa Rica in the period 1978 to 2012 (P < 0.05). The incidence rates increased with age in all birth cohorts and most age groups increased steadily with birth cohorts in most countries. Pronounced cohort-specific decreases in risk for recent birth cohorts were only seen in eight countries for both sexes. The cohort-specific incidence rate ratios increased rapidly in Belarus, Bulgaria, and Philippines cohorts born before 1920 for males, and in Ireland, and Slovakia cohorts born before 1990 for females. Cohort-specific incidence rate ratios for both sexes decreased in Iceland for cohorts born since 1960. Conclusion Disparities in MM incidence and increasing trends persist worldwide. Further studies are warranted to investigate the prevention and control of MM from population level.