Global Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center

Kalnay, Eugenia; Kanamitsu, Masao; Baker, W. E.

doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1990)071<1410:gnwpat>2.0.co;2

Cited by 286 publications

(166 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…In an earlier study by Antier et al [2007], Ground-To-Space (G2S) [Drob et al, 2003] models have been validated using infrasound from Mount Yasur. The G2S specifications used by Antier et al [2007] were based on the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) operational analysis fields [Kalnay et al, 1990] in the 0 to 35 km altitude region, the NASA GEOS4 (Goddard Earth Observing System Version 4) system outputs [Bloom et al, 2005] in the 35 to 65 km region, and the HWM93/NRLMSISE-00 empirical models [Hedin et al, 1996;Picone et al, 2002] above. It should be noted that the GEOS4 system has been superseded by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS5)/Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications analysis system, which currently provides outputs comparable to ECMWF up to 75 km, but at 3 h intervals at 0.25 × 0.33 • resolution [Rienecker et al, 2011].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of wind and temperature profiles from ECMWF analysis on two hemispheres using volcanic infrasound

et al. 2014

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In this paper, we evaluate vertical wind and temperature profiles that are produced by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric analysis. The evaluation is carried out on both hemispheres: we make use of stratospheric infrasound arrivals from Mount Etna (37°N) and Mount Yasur (22°S). The near‐continuous, high activity of both volcanoes permits the study of stratospheric propagation along well‐defined paths with a time resolution ranging from hours to multiple years. Infrasound observables are compared to theoretical estimates obtained from acoustic propagation modeling using the ECMWF analysis. While a first‐order agreement is found for both hemispheres, we report on significant discrepancies around some of the equinox periods and other intervals during which the atmosphere is in a state of transition and dynamical oscillations of the atmosphere dominate over the general circulation. We present an inversion study in which we make use of measured trace velocity estimates to estimate first‐order effective sound speed model updates in a Bayesian framework. Deviations from the a priori models around the stratopause up to 10% (≈ 30 m s−1) are estimated. Such updates are in line with the results from comparisons between ECMWF analysis and observations from lidar and microwave Doppler spectroradiometer facilities that were colocated during the course of the 2012–2013 Atmospheric dynamics Research and InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) measurement campaign.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of wind and temperature profiles from ECMWF analysis on two hemispheres using volcanic infrasound

et al. 2014

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“…Using other Earth orientation parameter series produced by other institutes (e.g., by the IERS Rapid Service/Prediction Center of the United States Naval Observatory, Washington, DC) would lead to the same conclusions since the agreement between the various data sets reaches 1 http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc a few mas, which is far below the CW amplitude variations investigated in this paper. We considered the geophysical forcing made up of (i) atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) as given by the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis project (Kalnay et al 1996), and (ii) oceanic angular momentum (OAM) output from the ECCO model that employs the MIT global circulation model in a near-global domain (Fukumori et al 2002). The model is forced by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis products (12-hourly wind stresses, daily adiabatic air-sea fluxes).…”

Section: The Data Setmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Earth’s variable Chandler wobble

Bizouard

Remus

Lambert

et al. 2011

A&A

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Aims. We investigated the causes of the Earth's Chandler wobble variability over the past 60 years. Our approach is based on integrating of the atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum computed by global circulation models. We directly compared the result of the integration with the Earth's pole coordinate observed by precise astrometric, space, and geodetic techniques. This approach differs from the traditional approach in which the observed polar motion is transformed into a so-called geodetic excitation function, and compared afterwards with the angular momentum of the external geophysical fluid layers. Methods. In the time domain, we integrated the atmospheric angular momentum time series from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis project and the oceanic angular momentum data from the ECCO consortium. We extracted the Chandler wobble from this modeled polar motion by singular spectrum analysis, and compared it with the Chandler wobble extracted from the observed polar motion given by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service data. Results. We showed that the combination of the atmosphere and the oceans explains most of the observed Chandler wobble variations, and is consistent with results reported in the literature and obtained with the traditional approach. Our approach allows one to appreciate the separate contributions of the atmosphere and the oceans to the various bumps and valleys observed in the Chandler wobble. Though the atmosphere explains the Chandler wobble amplitude variations between 1949 and 1970, the reexcitation of the Chandler wobble that begins in the 1980s, after a minimum around 1970, and that reaches its maximum in the late 1990s is due to the oceans, while the atmospheric contribution remains stable within the same period.

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“…It was based on the NCEP T80/L18 model (Kanamitsu, 1989;Kalnay et al, 1990;Kanamitsu et al, 1991) and subsequent changes were made to the T80/L18 model at NCMRWF. Atmospheric dynamics were based on primitive equations with vorticity, divergence, logarithm of surface pressure, specific humidity and virtual temperature as dependent variables.…”

Section: T-170 Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bias‐free rainfall forecast and temperature trend‐based temperature forecast using T‐170 model output during the monsoon season

Bhardwaj

Kumar

Maini

et al. 2007

Meteorological Applications

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An objective forecasting system for medium-range location-specific forecasting of surface weather elements has been evolved at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India (NCMRWF). The basic information used for this is the output from the T-170 general circulation model (GCM). The direct model output (DMO) forecast is briefly explained along with the T-170 model. The two important weather parameters considered in detail are rainfall and temperature. Both the parameters have biases. Techniques used for obtaining bias-free rainfall forecasts and temperature trend-based forecasts are explained in detail. These forecasts are obtained for all of the 602 districts of India. Finally, an evaluation of the accuracy of rainfall and temperature forecasts for selected districts for which the observed data could be obtained during the 2006 monsoon is presented.

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Global Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center

Abstract: In this paper we describe the global numerical weather prediction system of the National Meteorological Center, and review recent improvements , the evolution in skill, and current research projects and plans.

Cited by 286 publications

References 29 publications

Evaluation of wind and temperature profiles from ECMWF analysis on two hemispheres using volcanic infrasound

Evaluation of wind and temperature profiles from ECMWF analysis on two hemispheres using volcanic infrasound

The Earth’s variable Chandler wobble

Bias‐free rainfall forecast and temperature trend‐based temperature forecast using T‐170 model output during the monsoon season

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