Global Models for a Global Pandemic: The Impact of COVID-19 on Small Euro Area Economies

Abstract

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Global consumers before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: What aspects characterize digital consumer behavior?

“…The spread of the virus had repercussions in most countries generating consequences in terms of increased unemployment, inflationary pressures, disruption of supply chains, impact on education and the deterioration of physical and mental health (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean [ECLAC], 2020; Garcia et al, 2021;Garcia Perez de Lema et al, 2021;Kumar et al, 2021;Verschuur et al, 2021;World Health Organization [WHO], 2020).…”

Using Macrofinancial Models to Simulate Macroeconomic Developments During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Albania

“…However, this approach has been challenged by other authors arguing that past epidemic scenarios are not suitable to estimate the macroeconomic impact of Covid-19 pandemic given its totally different intensity and unprecedented government interventions (Donadelli, Ferranna, Gufler, & Paradiso, 2021). Some studies try to make use of early 2020 information about the shocks to construct projections for the subsequent covid-19 pandemic horizon (Primiceri & Tambalotti, 2020), (Gomme, 2021), (Bartocci, Notarpietro, & Pisani, 2020), (Garcia, Jacquinot, Lenarcic, Lozej, & Mavromatis, 2021).…”

“…This "quasi-real" forecast tests the model's forecasting power in times of large shocks. In spirit, we thus follow an approach by (Garcia, Jacquinot, Lenarcic, Lozej, & Mavromatis, 2021) but differ from them in several aspects. First, we incorporate financial market and financial regulatory measures.…”

“…Garcia, Jacquinot, Lenarcic, Lozej, & Mavromatis, 2021) follow a similar technique to generate the Covid-19 pandemic shock. We limited the add factors for 2020 to reflect that the lockdowns were imposed only in 2020 (and not in 2021) and also to reflect the fact that the endogenous variables are able to propagate the shocks imposed in 2020 further down into the future due to the estimated persistence.…”