Global-mean surface temperature variability: space–time perspective from rotated EOFs

Chen, Xianyao; Tung, K. K.

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3979-0

Cited by 49 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 47 publications

(57 reference statements)

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“…The AMV imprint on global and Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature has also been identified in many studies with different statistical analysis methods applied to both observations and modeling results (Barcikowska et al, ; Chen et al, ; Chen & Tung, ; Cheung et al, ; Chylek, Klett, et al, ; Chylek et al, ; DelSole et al, ; Kravtsov et al, ; Kravtsov & Spannagle, ; Steinman et al, ; Stolpe et al, ; Tung & Zhou, ; Z. Wu, Huang, et al, ; Wyatt et al, ; Zhou & Tung, ). These statistical studies are consistent with the above‐mentioned AGCM/hybrid CGCM experiments (Semenov et al, ; Zhang et al, ), illustrating that the enhanced surface heat flux released from the ocean to the atmosphere during a positive AMV and AMOC phase leads to the hemispheric‐scale anomalous surface warming and vice versa.…”

Section: Climate Impacts Of Multidecadal Amoc Variability and Amvmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Zhang

Sutton

Danabasoglu

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

366

362

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By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC‐AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV‐related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric‐scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state‐of‐the‐art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.

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Section: Climate Impacts Of Multidecadal Amoc Variability and Amvmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Zhang

Sutton

Danabasoglu

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

366

362

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“…In fact, a recent study has suggested that there is a significant footprint of the AMO in the WP SST, producing an SST pattern of Atlantic-Western Pacific trans-basin multidecadal variability (AWPMV in short), which is formed through several processes including an atmospheric teleconnection from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific and feedbacks between the atmosphere and ocean in the subtropical and tropical Pacific (Sun et al, 2017). The AWPMV has also been identified as the leading mode of global internal decadal SST variability (Chen & Tung, 2018). Therefore, there emerges a reasonable hypothesis that the footprint of the AMO in the WP may establish the relationship between the AMO and the AS anomalous low in winter and the AWPMV plays the essential forcing role in AS multidecadal variability.…”

Section: The Role Of Atlantic-western Pacific Trans-basin Multidecadamentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Acceleration of Arabian Sea Warming Induced by the Atlantic‐Western Pacific Trans‐basin Multidecadal Variability

Sun

Kucharski

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Arabian Sea (AS) warming has been significantly accelerated since the 1990s, in particular in the spring season. Here we link the AS warming changes to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A set of Atlantic pacemaker experiments with a slab mixed‐layer ocean model successfully reproduces the AS spring multidecadal variability and its connection with the AMO. An atmospheric teleconnection from the Atlantic to the AS in the preceding winter and associated thermodynamic air‐sea feedback is found to be important. The teleconnection can be reestablished by the atmospheric model when the AMO sea surface temperature (SST) and its trans‐basin footprint over the western Pacific are prescribed simultaneously. The western Pacific SST warming associated with the AMO positive phase induces a Gill‐type Rossby wave over the AS, showing anomalously low pressures and converging southerlies that weaken winter northerlies. Thus, the wind‐evaporation‐SST feedback results in and maintains the AS warm SST anomalies to the subsequent spring.

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“…Since the PDO and ENSO are not linearly independent, their influence on climate variability is usually entangled [93]. Chen and Tung [94] used a novel method of rotated EOF with pairwise rotation of the principal components to extract the modes of global-mean SST from interannual to multidecadal timescales. ey found that both PDO and ENSO contribute to the global mean surface temperature variations, in which the impact of ENSO is mainly limited to the interannual timescale, but the effect of the PDO is about a tenth of that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal Variability of Summer Precipitation Efficiency in East Asia

Wang

Gui

et al. 2019

Advances in Meteorology

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Precipitation efficiency (PE) is a crucial physical quantity in convective processes, describing the efficiency of rainfall generation from cloud detrainment. Although the importance of PE in extreme precipitation events is widely accepted, the evolution of PE in the warming climate and the associated moisture processes in East Asia are still not well understood. To address these issues, the interdecadal variability of PE in East Asia during summer in 1979–2016 is investigated in this study. Two major modes of summertime precipitation efficiency are identified using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF mode (EOF1) has a dipole pattern that reveals the variations of mean precipitation efficiency. The second EOF mode (EOF2) presents a quadrupole pattern that shows changes in the variability of precipitation efficiency. Both EOF modes exhibit significant interdecadal variability (IDV). The IDV of EOF1 is closely associated with the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the PDO can excite wind anomalies that significantly modulate moisture transport and further alter the mean precipitation efficiency in East Asia. The IDV of EOF2 can be attributed to the interdecadal change of occurrence frequency of Eastern Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which affect water vapor transport by inducing an East Asia-Pacific teleconnection-like wave train anomaly pattern. The IDV patterns of precipitation efficiency for both the mean value and variability will improve the ability to predict precipitation in East Asia.

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Global-mean surface temperature variability: space–time perspective from rotated EOFs

Cited by 49 publications

References 47 publications

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Recent Acceleration of Arabian Sea Warming Induced by the Atlantic‐Western Pacific Trans‐basin Multidecadal Variability

Interdecadal Variability of Summer Precipitation Efficiency in East Asia

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