2016
DOI: 10.7554/elife.19571
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Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation

Abstract: Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chi… Show more

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Cited by 50 publications
(87 citation statements)
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“…In 1996, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus emerged in southern China, and persisted locally until it started spreading internationally in 2004 [10]. By 2006, the HPAI H5N1 virus had spread across over 60 countries in Asia, Europe and Africa [11]. Still today, the H5N6 and H5N8 HPAI viruses that caused important epizootics in the USA (winter 2014/2015) and Europe (winter 2014/2015 and 2016/2017) originated in China [12], and share an H5 genes with many HPAI H5N1 that were circulating in China in the previous years, and that reassorted with other avian influenza viruses in eastern Asia.…”
Section: Main Textmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In 1996, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus emerged in southern China, and persisted locally until it started spreading internationally in 2004 [10]. By 2006, the HPAI H5N1 virus had spread across over 60 countries in Asia, Europe and Africa [11]. Still today, the H5N6 and H5N8 HPAI viruses that caused important epizootics in the USA (winter 2014/2015) and Europe (winter 2014/2015 and 2016/2017) originated in China [12], and share an H5 genes with many HPAI H5N1 that were circulating in China in the previous years, and that reassorted with other avian influenza viruses in eastern Asia.…”
Section: Main Textmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…A standardized “clade” nomenclature was developed and first adopted in 2008, based on the evolution and divergence of H5N1 viruses that evolved from the original HA gene of the 1996 H5N1 virus (World Health Organization/World Organisation for Animal and Agriculture Organization, ). Although 10 distinct clades (0–9) were identified from 1996 to 2009, the H5 viruses responsible for most outbreaks in poultry were still almost of the N1 subtype (Dhingra et al., ). Since 2010, different H5Nx reassortant viruses, including H5N2, H5N5, H5N6 and H5N8 subtypes, were identified in live poultry markets in China (Bi et al., ; Gu et al., ; Zhao et al., , ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Health/Food and Agriculture Organization (WHO/OIE/FAO) H5N1 Evolution Working Group, 2014). Viruses bearing HAs of the Gs/GD 2.3.4 lineage emerged around 2009 80 -2013 revealed an early propensity to reassort with NA subtypes other than N1, unlike 81 earlier clades, and showed unprecedented geographical range expansion via poultry 82 trade and wild bird migration (Claes et al, 2016;Dhingra et al, 2016;Lee et al, 2017). 83…”
Section: Introduction 49mentioning
confidence: 99%