Global-Local Heat Demand Development for the Energy Transition Time Frame Up to 2050

Abstract

Globally, the heat sector has a major share in energy consumption and carbon emission footprint. To provide reliable mitigation options for space heating, domestic hot water, industrial process heat and biomass for cooking for the energy transition time frame up to the year 2050, energy system modeling relies on a comprehensive and detailed heat demand database in high spatial resolution, which is not available. This study overcomes this hurdle and provides a global heat demand database for the mentioned heat demand types and in a resolution of 145 mesoscale regions up to the year 2050 based on the current heat demand and detailed elaboration of parameters influencing the future heat demand. Additionally, heat demand profiles for 145 mesoscale regions are provided. This research finds the total global heat demand will increase from about 45,400 TWhth in 2012 up to about 56,600 TWhth in 2050. The efficiency measures in buildings lead to a peak of space heating demand in around 2035, strong growth in standards of living leads to a steady rise of domestic hot water consumption, and a positive trend for the worldwide economic development induces a growing demand for industrial process heat, counterbalanced by the efficiency gain in already industrialised countries. For the case of biomass for cooking, a phase-out path until 2050 is presented. Literature research revealed a lack of consensus on future heat demand. This research intends to facilitate a more differentiated discussion on heat demand projections.

On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research

“…They also helped to look beyond the power sector and electricity grids and started including heat and transport in their model that facilitated insights leading to the smart energy system concept [88], [89], [90], [91], [92]. This enabled detailed studies on the transition of individual and coupled sectors of the same team [16], but also other teams, such as for the heat sector [93], [94], [95], transport sector [96], [97], [98] and seawater desalination [53].…”

“…If strict sustainability limits for bioenergy are applied, or if bioenergy supply is even blocked, the demand for VRE generation increases significantly. Energy demand for the transport sector is discussed by Khalili et al [98] and for the heat sector by Keiner et al [95], who highlight structural differences of several of the studies also used for Figure 4 and in addition compared to studies aiming for lower RE shares.…”

“…About 760 million people do not have access to electricity, and 2.6 billion do not have access to sustainable cooking solutions [440]. Energy systems based on 100% RE and respecting sustainability criteria will lead to a massive electrification across energy sectors, and will lead to a massive decline in the role of bioenergy for energy services, especially for cooking in developing countries [95], [215]. Even solar PV electricity-based cooking solutions are thinkable [441], following the trend of electricity-based cooking [442].…”

Contextualizing the scope, scale, and speed of energy pathways toward sustainable development in Africa

“…Heat demand was divided into domestic hot water heating, biomass for cooking and industrial processes. The heat demand profiles were generated according to Keiner et al. (2021) .…”

Setting the Pace for a Sustainable Energy Transition in Central Africa: The Case of Cameroon

“…Transmission and distribution grid losses are estimated by the method from [84]. Heat demand profiles classified as low, medium, and high temperature heat are generated according to the method established in [85]. The transport sector is classified into road, rail, marine and aviation following references [86].…”