Global inequities and political borders challenge nature conservation under climate change

Abstract

Underlying sociopolitical factors have emerged as important determinants of wildlife population trends and the effectiveness of conservation action. Despite mounting research into the impacts of climate change on nature, there has been little consideration of the human context in which these impacts occur, particularly at the global scale. We investigate this in two ways. First, by modeling the climatic niches of terrestrial mammals and birds globally, we show that projected species loss under climate change is greatest in countries with weaker governance and lower Gross Domestic Product, with loss of mammal species projected to be greater in countries with lower CO2 emissions. Therefore, climate change impacts on species may be disproportionately significant in countries with lower capacity for effective conservation and lower greenhouse gas emissions, raising important questions of international justice. Second, we consider the redistribution of species in the context of political boundaries since the global importance of transboundary conservation under climate change is poorly understood. Under a high-emissions scenario, we find that 35% of mammals and 29% of birds are projected to have over half of their 2070 climatic niche in countries in which they are not currently found. We map these transboundary range shifts globally, identifying borders across which international coordination might most benefit conservation and where physical border barriers, such as walls and fences, may be an overlooked obstacle to climate adaptation. Our work highlights the importance of sociopolitical context and the utility of a supranational perspective for 21st century nature conservation.

Predicted the impacts of climate change and extreme-weather events on the future distribution of fruit bats in Australia

“…Tasmania's glacial history might have limited the availability of suitable habitat in the past, preventing flying foxes from establishing permanent colonies on the island (Driessen et al 2011). However, as species can shift their distribution as a response to climate change (Parmesan and Yohe 2003;Titley et al 2021), particularly endothermic species, such as bats, that track their niche (Araújo et al 2013), it is plausible that future climate and extreme weather events and the reduction of suitable habitat in their original distributional range could drive the Grey-headed flying fox to Tasmania, despite the 250 km wide oceanic barrier of Bass Strait. Indeed, apparent vagrants have occasionally been recorded on the Bass Strait islands (Driessen 2010).…”

“…The projected increase in global temperature and the frequency and intensity of extremeweather events (IPCC 2014) is a cause of concern for biodiversity protection worldwide, as these changes are observed and predicted to impact the diversity, distribution and mortality of various taxa (McKechnie and Wolf 2010;Newbold 2018;Parmesan and Yohe 2003;Titley et al 2021;Welbergen et al 2007). Species are expected to respond to increasing temperatures and extreme weather by shifting their distribution towards more suitable areas (Maxwell et al 2019;Stillman 2019), likely including new habitats and geopolitical areas (Titley et al 2021). Range shifts can result in changes in community structure and ecosystem processes which can have positive and negative implications; assessing these changes and implications is essential for developing conservation policies (Wallingford et al 2020).…”

Leveraging natural history biorepositories as a global, decentralized, pathogen surveillance network

“…To this end, specimens and their associated data must be made readily available to the entire scientific community [4] and most importantly, to the countries from where the specimens originate [13,14,101]. The Nagoya Protocol is an international agreement designed to foster the sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources in a fair and equitable manner [102][103][104][105][106]. Equitable benefits sharing is essential to successful integration of biomedical and biorepository communities; however, despite its intention, the Nagoya Protocol has had a number of unintended negative consequences on international biodiversity research, making it increasingly difficult for researchers and scientists to access and share specimens across borders [103].…”

Genotypes of Rhizophora Propagules From a Non-mangrove Beach Provide Evidence of Recent Long-Distance Dispersal

“…As such, LDD events, across country borders, could play a significant role in species and ecosystem resilience. Therefore, emphasizing the need for international authorities to cooperate, especially in the face of global change, for the conservation of biological diversity (see Titley et al, 2021). Remarkable is how infrequently such movements (LDD events) are considered for plant conservation action and planning since plants are regarded as sessile and conservation spatially static.…”