Global Industrial Development: Insights From the Distribution Dynamics Approach for the Post Covid Era

Abstract

The spread of COVID-19 has significantly dampened global economic activity and has also wreaked havoc on the industrial sector. Understanding the disparity and convergence of global industrial outputs is important in assessing the effectiveness of concurrent development policies. This study investigates the spatial distribution of global industrial output to unveil the disparity in industrial development and the feasibility of achieving convergence over time. Stochastic kernel analyses are carried out for national regimes to study the overall pattern of industrialization for all the countries in the world. Countries are then classified into different groups to further analyse the geographical and income effects on industrial development. The results show that disparity between the Global North and the Global South will enlarge further in the future. Industrial development in the Global North will continue to prosper, while the industrial output in many countries in the Global South just cannot reach the global average.