Global Increase of the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones under Global Warming Based on their Maximum Potential Intensity and CMIP6 Models

Abstract

Future changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) under global warming are uncertain, although several studies have projected an upward trend in TC intensity. In this study, we examined the changes in the strength of TCs in the twenty-first century based on the Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity (HuMPI) model forced with the sea surface temperature (SST) from the bias-corrected CMIP6 dataset. We first investigated the relationship between the mean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of major hurricanes (MHs) and the maximum potential intensity (MPI) using the SST from the Daily Optimum Interpolation SST database. The LMI of MHs and the MPI in the last two decades was, on average, 2–3% higher than mean values in the sub-period 1982–2000, suggesting a relationship between changes in MPI and LMI. From our findings, the projected changes in TC intensity in the near-future period (2016–2040) will be almost similar for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. However, TCs will be 9.5% and 17% more intense by the end (2071–2100) of the twenty-first century under both climate scenarios, respectively, compared with the mean intensity over the historical period (1985–2014). In addition, the MPI response to a warmed sea surface temperature per degree of warming is a 5–7% increase in maximum potential wind speed. These results should be interpreted as a projection of changes in TC intensity under global warming since the HuMPI formulation does not include environmental factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture content and environmental stratification) that influence TC long-term intensity variations. Highlights The maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones is a predictor of their climatological intensities. Tropical cyclones will be 17% more intense than today by the end of the 21st Century. The maximum potential wind speed will increase by 5–7%/ºC under global warming.

The North Equatorial Current and rapid intensification of super typhoons

“…6b). Previous work [40][41][42] as well as Fig. 6c show that the overall increase in OHC and RI in the NEC region arise from warming (upward trend in sea level) of the western North Pacific.…”

Coastal Restoration Challenges and Strategies for Small Island Developing States in the Face of Sea Level Rise and Climate Change

“…The anticipated impacts of climate change and SLR in SIDS present significant and worrisome challenges. The cumulative effects of climate change [46,47], SLR [21,48], intensified wave patterns [49][50][51][52][53][54], and heightened hurricane activities [18,19,[55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62] could lead to irreversible consequences for SIDS by the end of the century, including increased coastal flooding and storm surges [62][63][64][65] (Figure 2). These conditions have already heightened the frequency and severity of disasters in coastal communities, resulting in adverse socioeconomic repercussions [64,65].…”

Short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate-nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using E3SM land model (v2.1)

“…Tropical cyclones are projected to be more intense and potentially make more frequent landfall in some coastal regions in the future due to global warming (Knutson et al, 2020;Pérez-Alarcón et al, 2023;Balaguru et al, 2023). Hurricanes can cause wide-spread, acute disturbances for coastal aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (Valiela et al, 1998).…”